TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EinSV]

Could we please create a separate thread for the hydrogen FUD and move the discussion over there (if anyone actually wants to discuss this irrelevant topic).

 

[neroden]

Donn - you think you are smart when you slip in the word 'unsold' in there, as if people in this forum are stupid to get sucked in by that. I was following you to the most part in that post, and was thinking.. hmm he makes a good point, until you slipped in the your theory of 'unsold' inventory. Then you lost all credibility.

We all know they were trying to get close to 200k but not exceed by end of Q2. But that doesn't mean production has to slow down. Simply store and flood the deliveries in July. But then their delivery logistics didn't really beef up to the increased load. No big deal. Just like how they fixed the production issues, they will fix deliveries too. Growing pains

Yeah, basically Tesla botched deliveries. Well, I think logistics is within Musk's skill set and they'll figure it out.

 

[RABaby]

As Buffett says, in the short term the market is a voting machine, but in the long term it's a weighing machine.

You know that Buffett gets too much credit for being a "wise old man" when he is just the same old opportunistic vulture that has made many of the flock rich. For that reason, I must correct you in attributing the quote to him rather than the one who taught it to him. The expression was coined by Benjamin Graham.

 

[Starno]

Since I'm an investor, I've never felt more certain of Tesla fundamentals over the near term (long term i've always felt confident).

 

[neroden]

I just looked through the entire "new" inventory on the Tesla site for model S and did not see a single one over 10,000 miles... all of these look to me to be demo or loaner cars, most are under 1,000 miles. There are a number of used over 10,000 miles, typically 2015 or 2014 and I would bet most are lease returns.

If you want to see what Donn REALLY thinks, go to the Seeking Alpha app and search for Donn Bailey, then look at the titles of his articles. He's probably second to Montana Skeptic for FUD published.

Third after Anton Wahlmann, I'd say.

I was going to give Donn credit for believing what he wrote, but I've started to catch him contradicting himself. So he doesn't believe what he writes.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Normally love Fred, but don't get his math here. Let's say Tesla produces 75000 cars this Q (50K 3 + 25K S/X). That would be an average of 5,769 cars per week over 13 weeks per quarter. Given we've just had 8 weeks as of today, then we should have produced 46,154 cars. We are ahead at 47K.

Keep in mind, that the first week was shut down pretty much since we took a break, meaning our weekly production is higher. In addition, like every quarter, the production accelerates towards the end of the quarter. Tesla usually is behind at this point. If anything, this data point is GREAT news.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The $320 barrier of last week is obviously gone.

After watching this morning's action, I think the barrier has moved to $310:

• there was fierce volume triggered when TSLA touched $310 around 10:32 am
• double volume+ continued at 10:33 while SP recovered to $310.645
• volume ebbed to 1/3rd peak as SP passed $311 by 10:34
• The $310 line was successfully defended again between 10:36 - 10:40
• By 10:44 the $310 line was holding with low volume
• Since then, SP has risen and not retested the $310 level

I think we have our new floor.

Data source: NASDAQ

 

[wipster]

Third after Anton Wahlmann, I'd say. I'll give Donn credit, he may actually believe what he's writing. I don't think Anton does.

Don't forget Bill Maurer or that Raven Quoter...

And I really have no idea what Donn believes, he seems to me to be a contradiction in terms. He would say some things in this forum that I agreed with, but everything I ever read of his on SA I absolutely disagreed with or was absolute FUD. Oh well, we won't be reading from him anymore on this forum unless it's another fake identity.

 

[neroden]

That $30B funding he had backing would have been sufficient iff instituational investors and retail investors had a path to stay back in private (atleast the majority would have stayed).

Now given that there is no clear easy path for them to convert their public to private shares I think that $30B would not have been enough. So in the hand he was perhaps short on funding.

I did the math and the number of "miscellaneous" investors (not Musk, insiders, Tencent, or Saudis) who would have needed to stay in was about 47 million shares. There are currently about 153 million shares in "miscellaneous" investors' hands. (You have to account for the shares fabricated by short-sellers.) I think from what I've read that it's pretty clear that that many shareholders -- about a third of the miscellaneous investors -- would have been able to "go private".

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Normally love Fred, but don't get his math here. Let's say Tesla produces 75000 cars this Q (50K 3 + 25K S/X). That would be an average of 5,769 cars per week over 13 weeks per quarter. Given we've just had 8 weeks as of today, then we should have produced 46,154 cars. We are ahead at 47K.

Keep in mind, that the first week was shut down pretty much since we took a break, meaning our weekly production is higher. In addition, like every quarter, the production accelerates towards the end of the quarter. Tesla usually is behind at this point. If anything, this data point is GREAT news.

In fact, some quick math. Assuming that the first 3 days of July were shut down (as we know), then the average we have produced for 7.5 weeks is 47000 / 7.5 weeks. ~6250 per week. That would be over 55K model 3s and 25K model S/X.

 

[neroden]

They weren't the kind of investors Mr. Musk had in mind.

So, reading the WSJ article (leaked elsewhere, since I will not give money to that dishonest Murdoch rag) it sounds like the Saudi Musk talked to gave him the impression that the Saudis would fund the deal, but then they backed out (possibly because they were claiming to have more money than they actually do), amid disagreement within the Saudi government.

And apparently the biggest investors interested in going private are other auto companies and Saudis, which I think is a big ugh from everyone involved in Tesla.

 

[bhtooefr]

Regarding the discussion of VW buying out Panasonic, I highly doubt that that would happen.

For one thing, I could see Toyota stepping in to block it - even with Toyota still seeing hybrids and FCEVs as more strategic than BEVs, that still needs batteries, and every single one of Toyota's battery-equipped products outside of China (where they use Hunan Copower 33600 NiMH cells) uses either Panasonic or Primearth cells. (And Primearth is a joint venture between Toyota and Panasonic.)

 

[neroden]

I am in with 40'000$ at 355$ as I believed that Musk (the "maker") would do everything to take his baby private.

Well, I overestimated him. However, what would you guys recommend me to do? I am currently sitting on a 6'000$ loss and its quite painful. I am afraid of the stock going further down to the 250$ area (funding of the debt, capital rises?)

How likely is the chance that the stock will rise to 355$ again so I can sell it and leave with a blue eye?

Thanks!

This is a good description of the psychology of the sort of person who should not be involved in the stock market at all.

Although I suspect you might be a troll, if you're for real, you should have an investing strategy. For instance, if you're a growth or value investor,
(1) You should have an independent model of what Tesla is worth
(2) You should buy and sell based on that model (whether it is "overpriced" or "underpriced")
If you're a momentum trader, you should have a "system" based on charts.

Etc.

 

[jkirkwood001]

O...Elon said openly to all concerned that he was considering going private and had secured funding to do so, dependent on shareholder vote. He put together the best proposals he could find to do that, considered all the angles, listened carefully to stakeholders as well as shareholders, and decided on the basis of all that he could gather, that the better path would be to remain public.

Where is the violation of the law, the public trust, or any short term manipulation of stock?
What is would be the basis for investigation(s)?
Is this really weighing heavily on the stock?...

Are you kidding?

1. Problem 1: Elon said all he needed was a shareholder vote. We never got one. (Gee, I was waiting for Elon to phone me. Still waiting...)
2. Problem 2: Elon said funding was secured. It's apparent he didn't, although possibly VW and others came to bat after he tweeted. Still not trustworthy.
3. Problem 2: The stock has swung +/- 20% since the tweet - that's a lot of impact, even if we can't say how much of that is directly related to his tweet.

I'm long on Tesla, but I bought more at 360 in the belief Elon would execute as he said he intended, and there are many more who did the same. He didn't. Right now I'm out a lot that I wouldn't have been if Elon didn't tweet - simple as that.

That said, I'm sympathetic to Elon and the stress he's under. I don't think anyone here believes Elon deliberately misled people or tried to manipulate the stock for his own financial advantage. But that is not the way stock rules work. You don't get to say "oops, my bad, ignore previous tweet". There are penalties. Frankly, if Elon got hit with a $50 M fine (would some of that come back to compensate me??) I think it would be a reasonable deterrent for him to be more cautious in future, at least regarding the public markets. We generally like Elon breaking rules in auto manufacturing, energy systems and space exploration, but this is a different playing field. And don't say that's why he wants out of the public markets - they saved Tesla in the past, this is the price of admission.

My $0.02 worth.

 

[imherkimer]

Are you kidding?

What rules did Elon break? There are penalties for what that he did?

 

[Lessmog]

MOD: You two need to shake hands and stop disturbing this thread, now.

Chirality problem. Need mirror imaging.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

1. Problem 2: Elon said funding was secured. It's apparent he didn't, although possibly VW and others came to bat after he tweeted.

He had funding from the Saudis before the tweet. Everything after was about getting funding from others in order to minimize the role of the Saudis. That’s where Silver Lake, VW, and others came in. Funding was secured.

As for the shares you bought at 360, hang on to them. Elon just showed that a whole lot of deep pockets value Tesla at more than $420/share. You should believe them.

 

[Tslynk67]

Cheers, Fred

 

[Foghat]

You know that Buffett gets too much credit for being a "wise old man" when he is just the same old opportunistic vulture that has made many of the flock rich. For that reason, I must correct you in attributing the quote to him rather than the one who taught it to him. The expression was coined by Benjamin Graham.

Buffet owns much of the electricity in the West. He really doesn’t like rooftop solar or energy storage.He’s already used his muscle in Nevada and has been behind the scenes changing regs on energy markets in anticipation of distributed solar/storage taking share.

Also, Tesla truck platooning is a developing threat to his massive rail holdings. I

He’s smart in that his public persona masks the behind the scenes shenanigans.

Elon has become a major emerging threat to buffets moat.

Utilities used to be the safe profit center for buffet types. But all that is rapidly changing. You can’t have a moat if all of us make money off our our roof top energy production plants.

You’re not hearing this in the news, but energy wars are happening under the public radar. Buffet would like to keep it this way too.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Tesla is on track for incredible production record this quarter albeit being behind on Model 3 goal

Fred’s math sucks. He said his info is from “last week.” If the 30k Model 3s we’re produced by the end of Friday, that’s on pace for more than 50k Model 3s by the end of the quarter (30/55 x 92days).

That’s without accounting for the first 5 days of July, during which very few vehicles were produced.