Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Yes there are no guarantees ... but having a product everyone wants is definitely the hardest part of the equation ..... without that execution, management, marketing are all irrelevant.

Also note another key difficulty Tesla has mastered: this is not some random, optional product that people love, this is a car, a must have tool for most families and the second biggest purchase of many people's lives.

It's not easy to satisfy people in that market, but once you do it unlocks a trillion dollars market ...

Apropos market: NASDAQ and Dow on new all time highs, $TSLA near weekly lows currently ...
 
  • Like
Reactions: SpaceCash
I was at Whole Foods yesterday and parked my Chevy Volt in the EV charging station, parked next to me was a beautiful white Model 3 so as I got out I walked over to admire it. Just as I was in front of it the owners, a nice mid 30ish couple, walked up and we struck up a conversation. I asked how they liked it and of course they had only great things to say ... not good ... great.

I put this in this section because of how it relates to my investing strategy ....

My investment strategy is buy the product and see for yourself how it performs over a longer period of time. Model X in 2016 (thanks shorts for the cash flow to do so) and Model 3 in january 2018 (hey shorts when do I get my money, just because I got to buy some at 250 doesnt mean I am going to sell below $1k ? ).

Did the same with apple, admittedly more affordable all around, but ended up being a similar situation, small part of stock gains paid for all the products purchased for my household.

I also bought a windows 10 laptop when it seemed that microsoft was getting their act together with a cross-platform (phone, tablet, xbox, laptops) approach and having touchscreen while the macbooks still don't have any. After trying it for a while and realizing it was as terrible as my previous windows experience usability/productivity wise, i.e. losing network access without comment, and a reboot installing updates to regain access, a closed laptop waking up by itself and doing obscure things, then them shutting down xbox project spark before it could take off), I sold my microsoft stock at almost half of what it is today. So that approach does not always work when the products are so diverse and I did not account for xbox and cloud showing so much potential.

But at least I put that money to good use buying TSLA shares :) and am still using macbooks for real work.

Oh and just in case I wasn't clear: The Model 3 has been and is truly epic. My wife drives the X and I drive the Model 3 every chance I get.
 
I sold my microsoft stock at almost half of what it is today. So that approach does not always work when the products are so diverse and I did not account for xbox and cloud showing so much potential


Microsoft is also operating in markets with near monopolies, so the "try the product buy the shares" approach doesn't work.

In markets where they are facing fair competition (such as phones) Microsoft got the clobbering their phones deserved.
 
history is literally riddled with companies that made great products that consumers/customers loved and yet the companies failed by execution, business model, rapid rise of competition for various reasons, etc. So, just because one or many love a product is not a totally solid way of evaluating a stock investment. IMHO.

posted as we're triggering LOD

Please provide a couple of examples so we can do a little compare / contrast. I can't think of any examples of what you describe. Not saying they don't exist, just saying I can't think of any.
 
Down again today cuz Musk can't keep his hands off Twitter and argues with a nobody about the pedo thing....again. When will Musk learn??? Geez he has thin skin. Can someone lock up his phone? Please lol.

Some people here are very quick in assuming a correlation between the today stock movement and Elons Twitter messages.

Most Journalists tend to try find answers for stock movements in retrospect by selecting information that in their view fit the move.

Unfortunately the reasons for a moving stock regardless if up or down are complex and smarter people than us have tried to find models to predict that never worked out.

I suggest stopping that guesswork, disregard the daily SP move unless you want to or must buy or sell and focus on the long term fundamentals.
 
Some people here are very quick in assuming a correlation between the today stock movement and Elons Twitter messages.

Most Journalists tend to try find answers for stock movements in retrospect by selecting information that in their view fit the move.

Unfortunately the reasons for a moving stock regardless if up or down are complex and smarter people than us have tried to find models to predict that never worked out.

I suggest stopping that guesswork, disregard the daily SP move unless you want to or must buy or sell and focus on the long term fundamentals.
Sadly this stock does move on Elon's tweets and no, it's really not smarter than that! The stock rose not because of great Q2 earnings but because the lord and savior Musk apologized and acted normal. The more erratic he seems, it does affect the stock, because Musk is probably about 50 percent of the reason for a $300 stock price.

Don't think others are smarter than you, they're usually not.
 
Some people here are very quick in assuming a correlation between the today stock movement and Elons Twitter messages.

Most Journalists tend to try find answers for stock movements in retrospect by selecting information that in their view fit the move.

Unfortunately the reasons for a moving stock regardless if up or down are complex and smarter people than us have tried to find models to predict that never worked out.

I suggest stopping that guesswork, disregard the daily SP move unless you want to or must buy or sell and focus on the long term fundamentals.

The reason why I believe elon's tweets and the unsworth scenario is linked to stock price is because a settlement affects elon's personal wealth.

Elon's personal wealth matters because of how much tsla stocks he pledged to get a loan.

Sorry to say, but this is a potential vector to bring down tsla.
 
I suggest stopping that guesswork, disregard the daily SP move unless you want to or must buy or sell and focus on the long term fundamentals.

Coming to the Market action thread and saying "disregard the share price" doesn't make sense to me. I would assume the people on this thread are here to fret about the share price. Maybe you're right and we should all go about our lives and ignore the price today and we'd all be happier for it.

I happen to agree that Elon's tweets are linked to the share price and that he dropped the price single handedly. The thing that frustrates me the most is that Elon uses a single twitter account to mix company business and private business.
 
Last edited:
The thing that frustrates me the most is that Elon uses a single twitter account to mix company business and private business.
Yes, 1000 times.

The .@tesla Twitter account mostly posts wallpapers and short video clips. Nothing insightful / valuable is shared by the company. I like that Elon (as CEO of the company) engages with his customers directly on the network (answering them, asking for feedback, hinting at future development, etc) but keeping each and every announcement for his personal account is a huge mistake. The biggest news should be made by .@tesla and retweeted by Musk (we'd know that he's tweeting anyway, he could even sign the tweets "- EM"). Such a little change would probably make home more likeable – some would say "less egomaniac", I guess. It would make Tesla more visible to the public, increase engagement with .@tesla instead of its sole boss, probably make Tesla workers prouder of their accomplishment, reduce pressure on Musk to micromanage the company's communication, etc.
 
The .@tesla Twitter account mostly posts wallpapers and short video clips. Nothing insightful / valuable is shared by the company.

I check Twitter probably more than 30 times a day, glance at the stock price and visit TMC at least as many times. But I don't even follow .@Tesla official account.

I'm a huge Musk supporter but this says a lot. Elon's public activity seems to indicate some lack of trust in his own team. How can this inspire confidence that Tesla (the company in general, not the sole boss) is strong and capable?
 
The reason why I believe elon's tweets and the unsworth scenario is linked to stock price is because a settlement affects elon's personal wealth.

Elon's personal wealth matters because of how much tsla stocks he pledged to get a loan.

Sorry to say, but this is a potential vector to bring down tsla.

If that is true and following the stakato since June, it looks like it is:

Then Elon himself caused the stock several times to fall or, simply not unfold.

Is this (a) by accident, or (b) does he want the stock to stay low for a reason?

If a), the stock should fall, because it feels unreasonable to invest.
If b), we might never know.

However for egoistical reasons I wish he could stop all the stuff for half a year and just concentrate on execution.
 
Microsoft is also operating in markets with near monopolies, so the "try the product buy the shares" approach doesn't work.

In markets where they are facing fair competition (such as phones) Microsoft got the clobbering their phones deserved.
Well, this was true a few years back. Not anymore. Microsoft has robust competition in almost all areas. In some areas it does well (cloud, database etc) - but some not so well. On phones it came to the market late and couldn't dislodge the duopoly of iOS and Android.
 
Down again today cuz Musk can't keep his hands off Twitter and argues with a nobody about the pedo thing....again. When will Musk learn???

It's starting to sound like 'pretty soon.'

I know I'll rack up some disagrees on this, but... good. I guess we'll see whether Musk has any evidence to back up his claims, especially now that he's doubled down. I hate that this is happening, but as I said when this whole thing went down:

I can see how [the diver personally insulting Musk's efforts to try to help the cave situation] would tee off Musk to the point where he responds on Twitter. It'd certainly piss me off, and I'm not a billionaire who's put my all, both financially and personally, into the Tesla mission over the course of more than a decade, all the while dealing with endless negativity from all corners, much of it presented in bad faith. That he eventually snapped is understandable. Perhaps it was inevitable.

The problem is that Musk then responded with the indefensible: calling the guy a pedophile. That's a serious allegation and one that even if he has evidence for, should be made to the proper authorities and not to the public via Twitter. If he doesn't have evidence, it's clear libel and given the relative net worth and popularity involved will certainly involve significant sums of cash being transferred from Musk to the diver.

I'm glad Elon deleted the tweets, as it shows that at least he realized he made a mistake. Hopefully he realized this on his own, and he knows he actually screwed up rather than having just reacted to the negative press.

Unfortunately yesterday's follow-up tweets suggest that perhaps Elon still hasn't realized his mistake.

And yes, you can bet that this will be relevant to the market action of TSLA.
 
I'm a huge Musk supporter but this says a lot. Elon's public activity seems to indicate some lack of trust in his own team. How can this inspire confidence that Tesla (the company in general, not the sole boss) is strong and capable?

Yesterday, Nicolas Hulot (France's Minister of Ecological and Solidary Transition) resigned with great fanfare. His position was among the highest in the government. He resigned because he lacks the troops and support to lead the charge. He almost cried in his interview, repeating that mankind will go straight into a wall if we don't make huge changes within the next decade (!).

No one doubt he hasn't try his best at his job and I don't know any who believes someone else could do a better job. He fought his whole life to avoid the catastrophe, and yet he felt alone in the fight and gave up. (hoping his resignation will make a mark on everyone's minds).

With this in mind, I hope Elon won't burn out. Not handling 100% of the company's public communication might help.
 
Last edited:
Damn you Elon and your tweets.....if the SP drops below 300 I'm going to have to shake some pants to find some free powder...and buy more stock.

I am not predicting TSLA will break $300 again, but if TSLA does get below $300, the next good entry is $265.

If your size is more than your risk appetite can tolerate, you will need a stop loss order, at least for the newly purchased shares.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.