TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Teslie]

Initially, wife wanted to use the €60k to go towards a summer-house in Denmark (she's Danish), but I pointed out we'd just end up with another mortgage around our necks and why not see if we could grow the investment to have enough to buy a house outright. So now we just wait. As is stands, around €140k for the moment, it's been a good investment to date (as we jumped in at the best possible moment since end 2013),

Did you follow the real estate prices in Denmark in the last years ? Buying a house on mortgage might have been an excellent investment with little volatility...

 

[Unpilot]

I’m ten years your senior, and a decade ago I deployed a similar strategy going all in on AAPL. That worked well. I retired early to focus on nonprofit work.

I’ve taken some of those winnings to go all in on TSLA. Fortune may smile on me again, or not. I don’t need the money, but I know how to deploy it for good causes if more comes my way.

You too are already way ahead of the game. I picture you roaming the entirety of Europe in your Tesla, and I’m very jealous. I hope you get that house you aspire to, and that someday you retrofit it with a solar roof.

Patience is a virtue. The road is long, but hey, you’re traveling in a Tesla. Enjoy the ride!

I am 1 year your senior In my Job I have to retire at 65. I bought my Tesla in December and soon after started going almost all in with stock. Average price is about 300. I will not need to sell as soon as I retire but am hopeful the option will be there soon after.

 

[KarenRei]

I’ve been hesitant whether or not to increase my Tesla long position. All the time that i’ve been thinking this, stock has moved down (I started this exercise after “going private tweet”).

For what it’s worth, at the moment I think I first see q3 results. If GAAP is positive, I buy more. If it is not, I wait and see.

So your strategy is, "Wait until the price is high, then buy"?

 

[scaesare]

Tesla’s Big Battery rescues Australia’s gird. Again.

Australia and their weird animals... I didn't even know "girds" were endangered!

 

[Matias]

So your strategy is, "Wait until the price is high, then buy"?

I know, that my plan has that negative side. But my plan also reduces my risk. I personally believe, that it is better to pay even 50 dollars more/share after q3 results, than buy now and then notice, that for some reason gaap eps is still negative q3 and see stock price dropping.

I also believe, that stock price won’t jump more than 10% immediately in the next trading day even after positive gaap eps, so I have time to increase my position. Of course I have to be ready to buy in the next trading day.

 

[Tslynk67]

I’m ten years your senior, and a decade ago I deployed a similar strategy going all in on AAPL. That worked well. I retired early to focus on nonprofit work.

I’ve taken some of those winnings to go all in on TSLA. Fortune may smile on me again, or not. I don’t need the money, but I know how to deploy it for good causes if more comes my way.

You too are already way ahead of the game. I picture you roaming the entirety of Europe in your Tesla, and I’m very jealous. I hope you get that house you aspire to, and that someday you retrofit it with a solar roof.

Patience is a virtue. The road is long, but hey, you’re traveling in a Tesla. Enjoy the ride!

I remember buying my first iPod, I think it was 2003, then my first iMac in 2006 - immediate reaction to that was "why didn't I do this earlier". Many people will have the same reflection with EV's, especially Tesla.

I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that $TSLA will make me rich, they've more of a head-start now than Apple had with the iPhone and the integration of the hard and software is such more challenging than with a phone.

Aside the house, I hope to get a Roadster II before I retire - bought as a company car here it's much cheaper net cost. Then indeed, will tour around Europe in that charged at home, indeed by solar.

Cheers to us longs!

 

[Tslynk67]

What do you think about these stats? Are they trustworthy?

Tesla Shines In Global Plug-In Electric Car Sales Stats For July

Please notice S and X sales.

Historically always low in July - just look through insideevs previous years.

 

[Tslynk67]

Did you follow the real estate prices in Denmark in the last years ? Buying a house on mortgage might have been an excellent investment with little volatility...

In Copenhagen, maybe, but in Jylland where we were looking to buy the prices have been stagnant since the economic crash, even gone down.

It's illegal to buy a house in Denmark unless you're Danish, so this keeps a lid o the prices. The moment they lift that restriction, the prices of all the summer-houses with double or triple overnight - all to be bought by Germans!

 

[Yggdrasill]

I know, that my plan has that negative side. But my plan also reduces my risk. I personally believe, that it is better to pay even 50 dollars more/share after q3 results, than buy now and then notice, that for some reason gaap eps is still negative q3 and see stock price dropping.

I also believe, that stock price won’t jump more than 10% immediately in the next trading day even after positive gaap eps, so I have time to increase my position. Of course I have to be ready to buy in the next trading day.

I'm thinking that at this SP, a weakly negative EPS is priced in. Q3 results would have to be pretty terrible for the SP to drop, IMHO.

 

[Matias]

I'm thinking that at this SP, a weakly negative EPS is priced in.

It probably is, because street consensus eps is negative.

 

[shlokavica22]

I also believe, that stock price won’t jump more than 10% immediately in the next trading day even after positive gaap eps, so I have time to increase my position. Of course I have to be ready to buy in the next trading day.

10% in the next trading day, but what is the comparison between now and the earnings day? Another 10%?20%?More?
That's what KarenRei meant. The price will be higher by then.

 

[Matias]

10% in the next trading day, but what is the comparison between now and the earnings day? Another 10%?20%?More?
That's what KarenRei meant. The price will be higher by then.

If one has the gift of foreseeing the future, it is of course easy to invest profitable. As I don’t have that gift, I don’t know, whether the price is higher or lower in the earnings day

 

[neroden]

and just increase cooling and power consumption

Yeah, no, in an EV, "just increase cooling and power consumption" is always wrong.

 

[neroden]

Today is maybe the last time that we could see closing SP under $300. A lot of good small news from reliable sources about production, for August could be 17-18K M3 at least, Tesla started preparing to peak September deliveries , seems AP beta version was downloaded to some M3, etc...
So, shorts, it is time to start covering..

I've said before that the disinformation and idiot short-sellers will stay in until Q4 earnings are reported next February. Q3 2018 is going to be more or less breakeven -- which is great -- but it'll allow the disinformation parade to continue. During Q4, even a modest ramp-up relative to Q3 (less than is planned) leads to gushing cash and it'll be undeniable.

 

[neroden]

Any news? Or why did the price shoot up $6 in a 15 minutes?

I seem to repeat this at least once a week: most intraday stock price movements mean *nothing*, and are basically noise. One of the first things anyone should learn about the stock market.

I may need to write a little "Principles of Investing" book.

 

[JRP3]

Historically always low in July - just look through insideevs previous years.

Inside EV's Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard counts US sales, this recent data actually comes from EV Sales: Global Top 20 - July 2018 and is global sales.

 

[neroden]

This is what I have been trying to do for the last 2 hours. I place an order, change my mind and cancel it. Can someone convince me to pull the trigger and sell that J20 300 PUT ?

View attachment 330630

Maybe you don't have the right mindset or psychology to be doing these types of trades. I'm serious. There are highly profitable trades which I avoid because they're not right for my psychology; they would make me uncomfortable.

 

[shlokavica22]

There are highly profitable trades which I avoid because they're not right for my psychology;

Such as?

 

[Revhappy2]

Maybe you don't have the right mindset or psychology to be doing these types of trades. I'm serious. There are highly profitable trades which I avoid because they're not right for my psychology; they would make me uncomfortable.

Thanks, you are right. I ended up selling 3 J20 50 PUTs for $3.8, so this gives me a credit of $1140. My risk tolerance levels are very low, especially after I got whipsawed and lost money trading TSLA options, this month. I am still very new and I have chosen a very volatile stock. So this is a learning process for me. Learning my own psychological limits.

 

[neroden]

This was shared with me today by a former Tesla bull who became disenchanted with EM/Tesla/TSLA and moved his TSLA money into other stocks......I still hold a good sized position in TSLA but it does make one understand why diversification is a good idea:


Arun Chopra CFA CMT on Twitter

I can't argue with that; if I'd figured out AMZN earlier (I didn't) I would have had more money in Amazon. Since I hadn't figured it out, I have no regrets.