Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
I want to thank you guys for giving me more insight on the balance sheet. Actually, I have not bought any put options (only on AMD and AAPL), I do only own 100 shares of TSLA and the above discussion makes me more confident about the future of TSLA. I do hope their next product (model Y) will rock like iPhone X and TSLA is able to scale production immensively to create shareholder value.

May I suggest, enjoy the moment? Most of us get excited with the introduction of a new model, or the revele of the newest production model or the latest vision on the horizon and then someone outside our bubble rudely awakens us. My life has been nothing more or less than tackling that which was in front of me inch by inch. The stock price has reflected this over time. Many here can attest to the pie in the sky predictions, me, I am grateful to have had the opportunity to just be here. Now, if the Tesla pickup was just around the corner, maybe I could keep my wife from the bad thoughts of a fossil fuel pickup:)
 
Thats an interesting graph. Pure EVs have increase in CA YoY by 29% which is the highest growth of all in percent followed by hybrid and Diesel. We likely see an accelerated growth even given that the M3 kicks in more profoundly in the 2nd half of 2018.

I am pretty sure all the increase in diesel ( and then some) is from newly available smaller diesels replacing much bigger petrol engines in full size pickups, and midsize picksups with 2.3L diesels replacing full size pickups.

These new midsize diesel pickups can do the work of full size petrol trucks.
 
Nope... this is a compressed spring, when it will break, if will break hard.
If will either continue wandering blindlessly in this 300 channel or establish a new, very different channel.
A mere doubling is not a new channel, a new channel will be between three and four doublings i.e. between 1k and 2k.

The carrot is out there and official 650B market cap. The shift in market expectation and belief will be abrupt.
Be prepared or miss it out.
 
If we consider accounts payable as a product pipeline liability, and inventory and accounts receivable as assets, we can tentatively (and somewhat sloppily: see the disclaimers below) compare them with cash levels and estimate "equilibrium" cash levels - what would happen if all Model S3X's in the pipeline were sold and accounted for:
Quarter
Dec 31, 2018
Mar 31, 2018
Jun 30, 2018
Sep 30, 2018 (est.)
[TD2] Inventory [/TD2] [TD2] Payables [/TD2] [TD2] Receivables [/TD2] [TD2] Cash [/TD2] [TD2] "Equilibrium" Cash (est.) [/TD2] [TD2] Cash delta [/TD2][TD2] "Equilibrium"-Cash flow (est.) [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,263m [/TD2] [TD2] -$2,390m [/TD2] [TD2] +$515m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,367m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,756m [/TD2] [TD2] … [/TD2] [TD2] … [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,565m [/TD2] [TD2] -$2,603m [/TD2] [TD2] +$652m [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,665m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,280m [/TD2] [TD2] -$702m [/TD2][TD2] -$475m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,324m [/TD2] [TD2] -$3,030m [/TD2] [TD2] +$569m [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,236m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,100m [/TD2] [TD2] -$429m [/TD2][TD2] -$180m [/TD2] [TD2] +$4,626m [/TD2] [TD2] - $4,684m [/TD2] [TD2] +$1,082m [/TD2] [TD2] +$2,933m [/TD2] [TD2] +$3,957m [/TD2] [TD2] +$696m [/TD2][TD2] +$857m [/TD2]

Great post, nice research!

Can you elaborate a bit on how you arrived to the numbers in the Sep 30, 2018 estimate? Maybe I just missed that part, but would be nice if you can shed some light on it.
 
Nope... this is a compressed spring, when it will break, if will break hard.
If will either continue wandering blindlessly in this 300 channel or establish a new, very different channel.
A mere doubling is not a new channel, a new channel will be between three and four doublings i.e. between 1k and 2k.

The carrot is out there and official 650B market cap. The shift in market expectation and belief will be abrupt.
Be prepared or miss it out.
I agree and that is why I am buying some more on Tuesday.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Tslynk67 and gene
Terms of Service Violation

Nice interview, the b!tch reporter tries to put some words into his mouth. But he doesn't fall for it. He tells doesn't read NYT and that it is biased.
The woman doing the interview is just playing the devils advocate. This is a job apparently permanently assigned to Bloomberg reporters when the subject is Tesla.

She could of course have asked her question's like this ....."Given all the success Mr Musk has had with his other company's i.e. Space EX,PayPal..why do you think people think he will fail with Tesla?" Or maybe this "Since we were not allowed to see the funding Mr. Musk had access to why do you think it is fair to call him a liar?"

Or maybe this "If you had a child that might die in a cave and Mr. Musk offered to help would you not welcome that help?"

But then I am looking at this from a whole different perspective than Bloomberg agenda pushers....oops reporters.
 
Well, since I'm an atheist i don't really believe in anything beyond us here and now before we become worm food, but it's like that old W.C.Fields anecdote where he was in the hospital reading the bible and someone asked why since he's an atheist and he responded "looking for loopholes" so I figured if your MIL were to pray for something, the worst that could happen is nothing.

But along the issue of prayer, and I know this is going astray, but it isn't as though there is that much going on right now, but don't you think praying for something, if you believe in god, is actually an act of persuasion? If one believes in god's plan, then asking for something that isn't happening is an argument that if won, would invalidate the existence of god since god is always right and convincing god to change course would mean there was an error. It can't happen, except for those who weasel religion and claim that it was going to happen and god knew it would but one has to ask for it first. That's absurd. Think of all the unanswered prayers for the death of tyrants and killers. Think of how Trump and all those who surround him are escaping any injury despite all the pain they inflict on others. No, I don't believe in prayer so I don't fear getting what you pray for is in the cards.

Now along another, but related point, I know someone who went through the 12 step and I got all over her for their use of god, but she informed me that the god can be any belief one has. It needn't be a god as known by religion. But I probably got that screwed up in some way or don't remember accurately.elief

Yeah, discussions of prayer could be an entire forum. I suppose there is one but I would never be on it.

Aside from a belief in panentheism, I accept the label of non believer as regards religion though raised a Christian. It seems to me the error of believers and atheists alike is a suspension of skepticism. I've long been impressed with Ortega y Gassett's remark, if memory serves, "People are wrong about skeptics. It is not that they believe in nothing; on the contrary, they believe in practically everything." As a junior in high school I remember shocking our minister by asking "what is the reason for reason?" No good answer but in old age the Greeks probably confronted such wise asses with something like bootstrap ease. On the possible infinite surprise angle, even string theorists seem to be recent converts to the multiverse hypothesis. "Let a hundred flowers bloom." as Mao said. A typical hypocritical politician he meant it in foreign policy, not at home due his fondness for Lenin's "democratic centralism." Now there's a contradiction in terms.

Fire away on the Market Politics thread as the long weekend nears end. What is it the belle tolled?:)
 
Hahaha, nah , it's billionaire Ron Baron
He said 500-600 this year. But because the positive surprise, it'll spike higher.
IMO.

0:14

If I'm not mistaken after watching the video, which I believe was shot June of '17, he said 350-400 for last year, 500-600 for this year, 1,000 by 2020 when Tesla hits 1M cars. So he might be a year off, but I'd prefer you are the better prognosticator.
 
Can you elaborate a bit on how you arrived to the numbers in the Sep 30, 2018 estimate? Maybe I just missed that part, but would be nice if you can shed some light on it.

The Q3 estimates are from the excellent Tesla financial modeling done by @luvb2b.

Note that his Tesla financials model uses fairly conservative assumptions: for example 50k M3 deliveries for Q3, which is at the lowest end of Tesla's Q3 guidance.

Please also note that the crude "Equilibrium Cash" estimate I attempted is mine alone, I don't think @luvb2b would approve of applying such liberal logic and arithmetics to balance sheet items to try to make cash flow arguments ... but it's the best I could think of to decouple the growing inventory effect from cash flow. Better estimates would be more than welcome.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.