TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Boomer19]

well @gene elon retweeted you
prepare for about 1000 more pig troll responses...but probably 20000 more likes
Gene on Twitter

 

[Tslynk67]

There's just nothing left.

They're not going to deliver 50k Model 3s this quarter. They probably won't deliver 45k. I wouldn't be surprised to see it come under 40k.

I think there's a clear quality problem with the Model 3. There are hundreds of reports across Tesla's forums, these forums, and Twitter of customers having problems getting their cars.

Other anecdotes: Canada S/X sales were way down in August, and Model 3 registrations are way down in New York State.

I don't know why you all trust Elon's guidance. In early May 2018, Elon said they'd be at 5k/week by the end of Q2. But in Q2, they still averaged below 2500/week, and even worse on deliveries. And Q3 guidance is below 5k/week.

Look back at when Elon promised profitability: a tweet in April. He's been doubling down ever since. I think it was a mistake, a hole he has dug too deep. Another random, impulsive tweet.

With all that in mind, they won't be profitable, and they absolutely won't be cash flow positive.

At this point, there are 4 weeks left in the quarter.

Shorts are feeling pretty good given that we're still seeing cars on lots in Lathrop, Burbank, and Service Centers sitting idle for weeks. Hitting their target would require much more turnover than what we're seeing.

If Tesla comes under 45k deliveries, the stock will be hammered.

No one cares about production anymore. With debts coming due, the only thing that matters is deliveries.

Really FUDBird, you take it to new levels.

Electrek: According to the same source, Tesla produced about 53,000 vehicles including over 34,700 Model 3 vehicles in Q3 as of Friday.

So, with 4 more weeks at a relatively conservative 4500 per week, we arrive at 52,700 - bang in the middle of guidance.

 

[Tslynk67]

well @gene elon retweeted you
prepare for about 1000 more pig troll responses...but probably 20000 more likes
Gene on Twitter

Have, we TMCers doing well with young Elon

 

[RobStark]

2020 - VW I.D.

This would require VW to buy roughly 1/3 of all new planned lithium ion European capacity from the Polish LG factory and the Hungarian factories from Samsung and SK Innovations for this one model alone. The startups won't be in production til 2023 at the earliest. This is assuming all three Korean satellites 100% ready to go in 15 months.

Plus whatever it needs for other VW BEVs plus Audi e-tron and Porsche Taycan.

Plus Mercedes eSUV.

Plus BMW iNext

Jaguar IPace

I suppose a lot of those Buzz could be built in China using batteries not up to Korean/Japanese standards.

 

[Yonki]

technically, for all EV in general, we’re still in the innovators stage..haven’t even reached early adopters phase yet
View attachment 331361

I think you cropped off a datapoint on the right side of the graph. Here, I've FTFY:

 

[Tslynk67]

My one Tesla tweet ever from a few days ago got attention from Elon, his mother Maye Musk, and is now on Tesla's Twitter page on top!

Gene on Twitter

You see, now you're glad we persuaded you

 

[Tslynk67]

Well, lucky for you lot that I was travelling back from Italy to Belgium over the last two days - not and unpleasant thing when you a beast of a car as I do - and it's such fun embarrassing the big Audis on the autobahn - instant torque when you're already going 160kph is a neat thing - bit thank goodness for the free Supercharing, 160-200kph is not the most efficient speed. But damn fun (wife had another opinion though).

Just checked and apparently iTunes still isn't handling playback of gapless albums correctly, after decades. Tesla has the same problem (and it's terrible), but iTunes is actually supposed to be a specialty music player, whereas Tesla is selling a car. First thing I'd have to do with Apple's craptastic music system is to download a third-party music player because Apple's system *does not work right*, and can you see why I use Android? I'm already having to download third-party software to do everything basic.

Basically it's all like this. If you like junk that consistently half-works, then yes, you'll love Apple's "everything half-works consistently". If you want things to *actually* work, it's much easier to get them working under a non-Apple system.

Apparently I underestimated the number of people who like junk which half-works out of the box, and who don't want to bother to find something which actually works. It's a lesson about the psychology of typical humans.

Oh, it gets worse. Apple's interfaces are wildly unergonomic and extremely unpleasant to use, but they're "cool looking" -- to some people, I guess. Form defeating function. This is anathema to me, but apparently extremely popular. Stuff like not having a headphone jack is another example of form (and cheapness) defeating function -- it just works worse, but oh, it's "cool looking".

When dealing with iCrap, I can't even get the gestures to work right, most of the time. Android isn't perfect, but it's managable.

Woah, not going to answer to ALL of that, but just to say that gapless in iTunes was resolved about 11 years back, or there abouts.

Doesn't work on Teslas media player though... I've been complaining about it for over 4 years.

Take a Look to this article: Tesla's Cash Problems Create January Default Risk Tesla's Cash Problems Create January Default Risk - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha $TSLA

Furthermore, please take a look at the balance sheet - mainly short term liabilities (due within 0-12 months). There are about 7bn USD outstanding. Even if they got 3.4 bn in Cash in Q1 19, they still cant pay the short term debt nor the Investment in China. They will NEED to raise capital in Q1 19 or Q4 18 leading to dilution of around 10% hence Stock price falling to 270

You lost me at "https://seeking..."

It's the AFTER point that I haven't seen this clarity on. The tweet and other 'comments' have said BOUGHT, not BUY. I know I'm splitting hairs here with tense but if they really wanted to say that any one buys FSD either before or after purchase will ultimately get the necessary 3.0HW for free - why not say it? Sure, after purchase these things are between 1000$-2000$ premium (and have always carried a post purchase purchase premium, but it doesn't seem as if that was to pay for additional HW in the past.

So, for those who didn't buy FSD at time of purchase (we don't know EXACTLY how many this is, but pre-purchase rates of FSD I think are only in the high single digits from some of the tracking spreadsheets), IF we buy it afterwards for 4000-5000$, is the hardware going to be "free"?

Don't know, but I think it will be hard legally for them to charge extra when it said $X to purchase after original order - unless there's a caveat in the small-print.

You are only down if you sell. If you hold till it goes back up...it will! Then your golden.

Yep!

You're worse than my dad

His wife is younger than you? That could be, awkward...

Did TT hack your account?

No, he hacked @WarpedOne

Simple question:

In what year will a German manufacturer sell at least 50,000 units of a BEV? Pick a year and name the vehicle.

2019
2020
2021
2022
2023+

In a month or in calendar year, cause Tesla are likely to be doing this monthly sometime in 2019...

 

[YasB]

This would require VW to buy roughly 1/3 of all new planned lithium ion European capacity from the Polish LG factory and the Hungarian factories from Samsung and SK Innovations for this one model alone. The startups won't be in production til 2023 at the earliest. This is assuming all three Korean satellites 100% ready to go in 15 months.

How so? The question was about 50.000 cars. Assuming 60 kwh for a compact car like the I.D. that's a lousy 3 GWh? Their plant in Poland will start production this year and they trippled planned capacity during the last year. According to the last numbers i read, LG Chem currently raised their construction plans to 90 GWh capacity (worldwide) by late 2020. CATL plans for ~80-90 GWh, BYD aims for 60 GWh, Lishen for 30 GWh and SK Innovation for ~14 GWh. You may realize that Samsung SDI, Northvolt, TerraE, AESC, GuoXuan High-Tech, Panasonic (ex Tesla) and some others are missing, since i couldn't find up to date numbers for them. I'm pretty sure there will be one or two GWh to spare for the poor germans. Things are developing fast.

Poland houses Europe's largest electric vehicle battery factory

Roskill: LG Chem locks-in more raw material to meet future Li-ion battery demand

https://australianmines.com.au/appl...files/files/Introduction to SK Innovation.pdf

Panasonic braces for all-out battery war with Chinese rivals

BYD to more than double battery production by 2020 - electrive.com

 

[Open Interest]

well @gene elon retweeted you
prepare for about 1000 more pig troll responses...but probably 20000 more likes
Gene on Twitter

Wow @gene, that is awesome, good for you! Thanks for going to bat. I don’t do Twitter, except to read Elon’s posts, but I did look at the comments following your post, and found Twitter to be a pretty nasty place.

 

[30seconds]

How so? The question was about 50.000 cars. Assuming 60 kwh for a compact car like the I.D. that's a lousy 3 GWh? Their plant in Poland will start production this year and they trippled planned capacity during the last year. According to the last numbers i read, LG Chem currently raised their construction plans to 90 GWh capacity (worldwide) by late 2020. CATL plans for ~80-90 GWh, BYD aims for 60 GWh, Lishen for 30 GWh and SK Innovation for ~14 GWh. You may realize that Samsung SDI, Northvolt, TerraE, AESC, GuoXuan High-Tech, Panasonic (ex Tesla) and some others are missing, since i couldn't find up to date numbers for them. I'm pretty sure there will be one or two GWh to spare for the poor germans. Things are developing fast.

Poland houses Europe's largest electric vehicle battery factory

Roskill: LG Chem locks-in more raw material to meet future Li-ion battery demand

https://australianmines.com.au/application/third_party/ckfinder/userfiles/files/Introduction to SK Innovation.pdf

Panasonic braces for all-out battery war with Chinese rivals

BYD to more than double battery production by 2020 - electrive.com

So you are saying the VW I.D. In 2020?

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Impressive. Waiting to see if @FirebirdAlpha has a rebuttal to this...

I can see him feverishly searching the SA article library to find his rebuttal. LOL!

 

[EnzoXYZ]

My one Tesla tweet ever from a few days ago got attention from Elon, his mother Maye Musk, and is now on Tesla's Twitter page on top!

Gene on Twitter

I bet you didn’t think you have that much influence did you?

Thanks to you and all other Twitter FUD fighters!

 

[jw934]

Extremely positive car review of the Model 3 giving the perspective from a millennial car reviewer with 6 years track record and 456K followers. Only negatives mentioned are the forgotten carbon fiber spoiler, the missing dual motor badge and some hesitation about the level of customer service during delivery. The conclusion is that the Model 3 should be on the top of your shopping list.

2018 Tesla Model 3 Performance – Stupid Fast Electric Car Is [Finally] HERE!
Redline Reviews
94K views
2 days ago
38:51

 

[mltv]

How so? The question was about 50.000 cars. Assuming 60 kwh for a compact car like the I.D. that's a lousy 3 GWh? Their plant in Poland will start production this year and they trippled planned capacity during the last year. According to the last numbers i read, LG Chem currently raised their construction plans to 90 GWh capacity (worldwide) by late 2020. CATL plans for ~80-90 GWh, BYD aims for 60 GWh, Lishen for 30 GWh and SK Innovation for ~14 GWh. You may realize that Samsung SDI, Northvolt, TerraE, AESC, GuoXuan High-Tech, Panasonic (ex Tesla) and some others are missing, since i couldn't find up to date numbers for them. I'm pretty sure there will be one or two GWh to spare for the poor germans. Things are developing fast.

Poland houses Europe's largest electric vehicle battery factory

Roskill: LG Chem locks-in more raw material to meet future Li-ion battery demand

https://australianmines.com.au/application/third_party/ckfinder/userfiles/files/Introduction to SK Innovation.pdf

Panasonic braces for all-out battery war with Chinese rivals

BYD to more than double battery production by 2020 - electrive.com

these estimates probably as good as Elon.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

2020 - VW I.D.

That’s a reasonable guess, though I expect they’ll run into delays like every other automaker has, and actually get there in 2021. Either way, 5-6 years behind Tesla. No wonder they were trying to buy in.

Has VW even mentioned 50k/year as a goal? I’ve read that they’re hoping to start production in late 2019, but haven’t come across a stated production level.

 

[gene]

My one Tesla tweet ever from a few days ago got attention from Elon, his mother Maye Musk, and is now on Tesla's Twitter page on top!

Gene on Twitter

Wow! I never realized the power of Twitter and especially Elon's twitter feed. Yesterday when @tesla retweeted my tweet top of their page I was getting 100 or so impressions a minute. Then today Elon retweeted my tweet. Guess what? I am getting 2,000 impressions a minute! Had I been smarter I would have included my business url...J/K

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) | Twitter

 

[gene]

You see, now you're glad we persuaded you

I had hesitated with twitter before because I get a little to hot under the collar when arguing with shorts. So, I decided to simply do a positive tweet. I guess having the 3 Model 3's here is an asset.

Funny thing, another guy in the feed tells me his family has 3 Model 3 as well all in the same colors!

 

[gene]

Wow @gene, that is awesome, good for you! Thanks for going to bat. I don’t do Twitter, except to read Elon’s posts, but I did look at the comments following your post, and found Twitter to be a pretty nasty place.

The nasty part sucks but there is no shortage of good people who take the nasty haters down a few pegs.

There is also a lot of Elon Musk impersonators, they slightly misspell Elon's name. I blocked everyone of those I can find. One can report them as impersonators.

Question, does reporting them do any good?

 

[RABaby]

The nasty part sucks but there is no shortage of good people who take the nasty haters down a few pegs.

There is also a lot of Elon Musk impersonators, they slightly misspell Elon's name. I blocked everyone of those I can find. One can report them as impersonators.

Question, does reporting them do any good?

When you kill rats, does it keep more from coming back?
In rat infested areas, there is always the risk that more will crawl into even the most protected, clean areas.
Still, it's pretty satisfying to kill them with traps when you come back to toss their carcass.
But it certainly is no fun to hear them scream when caught or agonize over how to finish the kill.
So you can't keep them away, but do figure out a way swiftly kill each one that ventures in.

Here's hoping you pile up a stack of dead shorts, or rats. Either one is fine.

 

[generalenthu]

Was just reading this gem of an insight from Reuters. You guys are seriously misguided in your model 3 q3 delivery projections.

Electric Mercedes opens German assault on Tesla

The market for upscale electric cars is Tesla's to lose, with sales of its entry-level Model 3 sedan expected to reach about 50,000 cars this year and almost double that in 2019.