TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[omarsultan]

You have to hand it to the Tesla legal department. They must have one hell of an air-tight NDA. Because no one from the C-suite talks on the record. From Jason Wheeler and Jon McNeill on down.

Or the other explanation is that there is nothing to say. People can feel positive about a company, its mission and their time there and still choose to do something else with their lives.

 

[mickificki]

I read all of your posts and none of them refute anything in the article. You just mention a lot of "what about this..." and "what about that..."

3 people 'loved' your post without checking whether what you said was even true. No wonder we live in a post-truth world.

right and your "factual" article...did you bother to check those "facts"?

 

[eye.surgeon]

You do realize that there is a whole spectrum of difference between having a little drink/toke at 10pm after work and showing up on the job impaired, right?

Yes, I believe the main difference is one is a federal crime and the other isn't.

 

[mickificki]

Oh god...

CNBC was practically gushing over Tesla from the start of August - they have Gene Munster on every day talking up Tesla, they have Kramer there talking up Tesla (at least until today) and they have guests on all the time who have long Tesla or Dec calls in the 400's on very regularly.

I don't watch it directly, just the highlights Yahoo repeats, but CNBC seems to have a very strong pro-Tesla contingent. The fact you see it the complete opposite might indicate they're showing both sets of opinions.

My M3PUP is due on Oct 6th BTW...

CNBC loves tesla? have you seen the interviews with sonnenfeld and chanos?

 

[Reality]

Man, i want a job that pays me 10m and my biggest complaint is being ignored. I love being ignored at work! If I could be ignored all day every day it would be utopia.

 

[Tslynk67]

or the books are a disaster and he has to do illegal stuff

Seriously, why the **** is this person not banned?

 

[humbaba]

For those who go in for $TSLA's inevitable demise I offer the Apple Death Knell [1]

For the present circumstances (personal attacks against the CEO, poor company performance), one that resonates with me is #10 where Michael Dell (who took his company private) said, "I'd shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders."[2] Just think how poorly that would've served the shareholders if Jobs had been foolish enough to take this advice.

Or how about #12 where we are informed that "Steve Jobs can't run companies, but he has proven that he is a genius at motivating teams of people to produce extraordinary products. In fact, he may be the greatest project team leader in the history of high tech. That is no small achievement. But it does not translate to being the CEO of a giant corporation." [3]

How does all of this relate to market action? These public pronouncements of inevitable failure, these chastisements of CEOs, have no long term bearing on the performance of the company either in its operational execution or in its stock price.

The influence of such news articles on stock price is not demonstrable (although confirmation bias can deceive the unwary) and competent stock traders will crunch their numbers and do their analyses without concern. The influence on investors -- those who buy stock in a company in order to hold it, not just trying to buy low/sell high -- however can be considerable. Do not be mislead by it. Pay attention to the company's operational execution, to their financial performance, and their plan for the future.

How many here remember the famous "But I didn't inhale"? I can't help but think of that wrt Musk and the blunt. It wasn't that significant when a presidential candidate said it -- it made the news rounds to be sure, but he was still elected -- so how much less significant must it be when a CEO is seen actually not inhaling.

1) Death Knell Archives - The Mac Observer
2) Dell: Apple should close shop
3) Apple R.I.P.

 

[Tslynk67]

Tesla's accountant quit after concluding Musk was ignoring go-private advice

As in Elon decided not to go private? Erm...

 

[Wooloomooloo]

right and your "factual" article...did you bother to check those "facts"?

It's a short article made up mostly of cited quotes and links to other articles. There isn't much to 'check' - and given you haven't even read the article, I'm not sure why you're trolling me?

 

[SpudLime]

It's a short article made up mostly of cited quotes and links to other articles. There isn't much to 'check' - and given you haven't even read the article, I'm not sure why you're trolling me?

You are giving the troll too much credit. Its as if they have some sort of decision making process behind it, when actually they dont.

 

[Drax7]

Yes because of short term stock volatility. That is a harmful thing. It harms the company and shareholders. I don't care about the random walk in the park type of stock volatility, it's just noise. Volatility due to the seemingly irrational and unstable behavior of the CEO concerns me. Regardless, I index, I don't stock pick.

After watching hundreds of gray anatomy episodes on Netflix, surgeons don’t seem very stable.

being openly honest and human may appear unstable to the pretenders

 

[X Fan]

Boomer, I agree with everything you wrote except David Morton. He came in at a salary of $350k, but was also granted a $10 million equity grant payable in 4 years. The man is an accountant. The only way you walk away from that kind of money is if you a) hit the lottery b) find a beautiful, single, rich heiress to marry you, or c) realize the odds of the grant being worth staying around for 4 years are very slim.

“Since I joined Tesla on August 6th, the level of public attention placed on the company, as well as the pace within the company, have exceeded my expectations,” Morton said in the filing. “This caused me to reconsider my future. I want to be clear that I believe strongly in Tesla, its mission, and its future prospects, and I have no disagreements with Tesla’s leadership or its financial reporting.”

In plain English it means this poor guy walked into a complete "sh*t-storm". While he has no "disagreements" with Tesla's financial reporting he seemingly did not like what he saw ahead. Because otherwise, they would have had to fire him and pry him out of his office to walk away from $10 million. If the poor guy is married he probably came home to another one too! lol

Can you imagine trying to explain to your wife why you walked away from $10 million?

Well, for one, I suspect he was quite wealthy to begin with.

FWIW: I’ve done quite well in life and NEVER took a job just for the money.

Money, work content/quality and people I worked with always needed to be in balance.

Plus, some folks just work to live vs the flip side. Working at Tesla as a Senior Exec requires a sacrifice that some will never adjust to.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

CNBC loves tesla? have you seen the interviews with sonnenfeld and chanos?

Yes - and they interview Munster 3 times a day and had a slew of folks praising the company all the way through August.

Are you suggesting they should not give air time to other opinions?

 

[Foghat]

Go to 1:19 (1 hour, 19 minutes).

This is why we invest in Tesla. The priorities of Elon are clear and his motivation is pure and strong. If you don’t feel his love for humanity here, and his desire to make Tesla great, you got some issues.

 

[humbaba]

This is a very in-the-bubble perspective. Just because something doesn't follow Tesla's lead does not automatically make it a bad choice:

Oh, I don't disagree with that, but...

• Having a single production line that can handle multiple drive trains is not a bad thing--it saves capital which can be used for other things, shortens time-to-market, and reduces execution risk of bringing up a new plant. Tesla made a similar move recently as they walked back the decision to build the Model Y on new platform and are leveraging the Model 3 platform instead
• "Risk averse design" can also be translated into "cleanly fits into our very successful portfolio of luxury vehicles" which demonstrates we understand our buyers and what appeals to them
• Range, performance and frunk storage are characteristics that Tesla highlights. For MB's target buyer, they may or may not be meaningful. Instead, things like build quality, interior appointments, reliability, might have higher value to the target audience.
• The value of range and supercharging really depends on the target buyer. If the MQC is your only car, then, yeah, its an issue. However, it is your car to pick up the kids, go to Costco, maybe commute to the office, 200 miles will probably work. Its a safe bet that EVs will be 2nd cars for a lot of folks so they will have an ICE handy for road trips

Don't get me wrong, I don't think the MQC is a "Tesla Killer", but I also don't think its wise to dismiss a company like MB when it says it's investing 10B euros in something. Still long on TSLA and not planning on selling my cars anytime soon, but one of my formative business books was Andy Grove's "Only the Paranoid Survive". IMO it's better to respect the competition and understand how their strengths line up against Tesla's weaknesses.

1. *I* pointed out that they were taking advantage of their experience by re-using, so your statement agrees with mine.

2. You can try to redefine "risk averse design" that way, and taking it out of context helps with your attempt. What you are leaving out is that they did not change the car to succeed as an EV. Here, let me help you: their wedging an EV into an ICE design car resulted in an EV with substandard range, acceleration, top end and storage capacity. They weren't willing to alter the design to be effective as an EV because doing so would not allow them to leverage their strengths.

3. You may be right that those do no matter to MB's target buyer. Neither of us know for sure what their targets are. *I* already pointed that out. But if their target market is <100 sales per month then no one cares -- it isn't like this is a $12 million flagship.

4. Naturally, range and supercharging really depends on the buyer. And they are overwhelmingly saying they purchase a vehicle with those characteristics. Do you need me to post another link to the sales numbers?

5. Whether or not MB is investing 10B euros is pretty darn meaningless. What are they investing it in? Are they doing something to allow a proper battery pack? Are they building out a supercharge network? Something else? Details matter -- if its all spent on coke and hookers I don't care *how* much money they spend it won't help them succeed.

Look, if Tesla were attempting to penetrate the ICE market you would have excellent points. But then, we wouldn't be having this discussion because they would have gone the way of delorean. As it stands, the established car makers have, with one exception, repeatedly shot themselves in the feet. That is why Tesla effectively owns the EV market. Will it last? Probably not -- Apple "owned" the smart phone market with the release of the iPhone, now they have been relegated to the position of making the most profitable smart phone. Such problems they have.

Will Tesla continue to succeed? Only the future will tell. But the old guard of car manufacturers need to get their act together and actually invest in EV. I would be *happy* if they did. In fact, if GM hadn't deliberately sabotaged EV[1] they could have avoided ever having to compete with Tesla -- Musk only went for EV because no one else was doing it.

1) General Motors EV1 - Wikipedia

 

[beachbum77]

Man, i want a job that pays me 10m and my biggest complaint is being ignored. I love being ignored at work! If I could be ignored all day every day it would be utopia.

It is a total crock. Any seasoned exec from a C suite will tell you that for the first 15-30 days you watch, listen, and keep your mouth shut until you know the politics of the management team (unless you were hired as the CEO). Then you slowly integrate yourself into the dialog. To suggest he started offering things to do for a going private move on his second day on the job would be total stupidity. You sit back and listen. David Morton is not some recent MBA grad who thinks he knows it all. He is a seasoned pro with 23 years at Seagate.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

So... you really don't have anything to say, other than you think/hope that $TSLA goes bankwupt? I mean, you think anyone is supposed to take you seriously when you say that they need to be bought by a company that "has all the resources necessary to make great EV's." Who, pray tell, is that? I promise and pinky swear not to laugh at your answer.

Or the part where you say "Tesla has great bits and pieces...". Um, yeah, like manufacturing capacity to produce the M3 in volume. Or the part about the supercharger network. Or maybe you are referring to their autopilot software? Or their high performance neural network chip? Maybe you meant such trivia as their ordering website? Having distribution points to get sold vehicles to the purchaser? Or maybe you meant the part where they do OTA updates, famously fixing a braking issue raised by consumer reports?

You are right, they definitely have great bits and pieces. But somehow you get from there to "it just doesnt have the total package of what a car manufacturer needs to be." I'm not sure I follow. The fact that they don't make a legacy engine or car? But to make sure we don't miss your point (whatever it is) you follow up with "the company itself is missing some very important pieces to be successful as it stands today." [edit: I mean't to put in a clarifying question here: can you be specific as to what it is you feel they are lacking?]

Right, so having positive cash flow (yeah, I know, we have to wait for the earnings call to have this nailed down, but it was obvious from Q2 that this is inevitable this year) is not successful? Having the best selling luxury sedan is not successful? You know, there are other car companies that would very much like to have that sort of "not successful."

But then again, you signature line gives you away. You are a bear and have shorted $TSLA, so naturally you are *hoping* that the only way they could be successful would be to go bankwupt. I'll grant you that you are not a paid troll like has been recently inhabiting the forums -- I only started posting recently, but I've been lurking and I know your post history.

Maybe you really don't get why you keep getting banned and I do believe that you "come in peace" -- you are not trying to stir it up, and I appreciate that. All I ask is that you honestly try to separate from your short position in $TSLA and look at this objectively. You can be horrified by Musk's behavior (as some bulls are) and think that they are not following a good business plan, but don't try and pretend that Tesla does not have what it takes to be a car company -- because the present facts state very plainly that they do.

I don't think he comes in peace. He's one of the biggest trolls on here.

 

[Brian121]

It is amazing that shorts are so vile but have such a strong will.

When the stock was at $375, everybody talked about short squeeze or at least some covering. But they hanged on and waited and waited, and continue spreading FUD.

Now stock is at 260, and longs are scared. I certainly admire the tenacity and determination of shorts trying to spread lie and false accusation bring down a US innovative company just to make some bucks. Why can not longs tough up a bit just like shorts? I think the time is on the long side.

This boiled down to fundamental. And based on the shorts ceased attacking Model 3 or their admission that there could be at least one profitable quarter, I think time is on the long side.

 

[tslagreen]

some of the trolls like Mike117 definitely should be banned.

I can see why we believe in Tesla. but how do you still have faith in Elon as CEO? it seems he is no longer making sound judgement/decisions for the past months, which is extremely critical to a company like Tesla. in the past few months:

- he made enemies out of analysts by being unnecessarily rude to them on earning call (if you dont like their questions then ignore them or say something else). some of them analysts now pile on with downgrades at every turn.
- he made enemies out of all media by attacking them with Praduh thingy. almost all media now actively seek out negativity and attack him at every chance. he may be right about the fake news, but not a smart move. Tesla needs as many friends as they could have.
- funding secured - hate to say it but a lot of us investors believed him and lost $$$.
- pedo guy (3x) - why the need to attack a low life guy over and over and over, even if he is a pedo?
- showing up live interviews looking as if he no longer cares about his appearance
- not only swearing, but also smoking weed on live TV. FFS he's a CEO not a college student. what was he thinking? he has thousands of employees and millions of customers/fans watching and looking up to him.

Long term, I believe Tesla's wheels have been set in motion and so they will likely do fine with or without Elon. just like Apple losing Steve Jobs didn't stop it from going to 1T.

that said, Elon has been everything to Tesla so I think there are more downside to the stock short term. I know many of you here will disagree, I'd love to hear your arguments on what make you all still are confident with Elon's decision making ability going forward.

I think criticism of Elon based on your email is fair. I love Elon and Tesla and am nearly fully invested in TSLA. The recent downtrend in the SP in mostly self-inflicted due to Elon's gaffes. Nevertheless, Tesla the company and the stock price (positively) would not be where it is without Musk. I still have faith in him as the CEO, but increasingly think a trusted 2nd chair (ala Cook, Sandberg, et al) would be a good thing.

 

[Off Shore]

We've driven the moderators off, we're in Lord of the Flies territory now. The same 10mm share volume that crushed the SP several days back is doing it again today, and it's not related to pot smoking or exiting CAOs, it's about people with serious money to spend to make life difficult for TSLA and thus Tesla. Meanwhile here on the forum the SNR tracks the stock price. My preferred solution (the Ignore button) only cuts out half the noise.

Also, @SpudLime please change your avatar. I don't know, maybe new eye color or a gold tooth. It's not that I like @mickificki better than you, it's just that he (/she/they) had the original one first. Thanks!