TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

This is my feeling as well. There would have to be proof that Musk was doing all of this to manipulate stock price without having anything to back it up. Proof that he was doing it to profit from the manipulation. Don't see the case there.

Not just that, within just ~2 weeks of the tweet Tesla's board had a formal meeting with two big Wall Street firms presenting to the Tesla board a going-private construct with ~30 billion dollars not just secured but also committed to the private buyout. The Tesla board decided to not go private after that presentation.

So if this is about the 'funding secured' wording, then it was also demonstrated to be true - and truth is an absolute defense against allegations of fraud. The SEC and DOJ, no matter who runs it and with what bad intention towards Tesla, won't be able to make that fly in a court of law.

 

[LeonHe]

Maybe Tesla should just move to another country that's more supportive of its businesses?

If Tesla is being hated so much in the US, maybe it should just move to China which has the strongest support to EV

 

[nwdiver]

People, relax. Musk controls the most advanced weapons company on the planet - SpaceX. The NSA and the US military will politely tell the DoJ to Go F Themselves before things start looking ugly for Musk.

This is probably just a personal vendetta from Jeff Sessions because of his idiotic view on Marijuana;

 

[RABaby]

What I would like to know is if the short exposure increased? Was it weak hands selling? Was it bots reacting to the news? Or was this orchestrated and acted upon by shorts who sold big time with the opening? Weak hands or bot reaction means someone is out of luck. If it was a short activity, then the percentage of shorts should have increased - unless they are slowly covering now to make a few bucks and enjoy the reset in price from which they will continue to play their games.

Maybe Ihor will have an update later. The only tool that the little guy can use in fighting these manipulations is time. Hold and wait. You can forget any help from the SEC and the financial press is a tool of those who own it. It really shouldn't be placed on the same level as general news because the distortions are obvious and the intent is clear. One could argue the same about general news and politics, but financial media is very focused and it all comes down to money.

 

[SO16]

How are people here bit more pissed? Some of you bought above 370 believing that they were going private for an easy gain to 420. You should be furious.

There should be consequences for this reckless statement.

I bought several shares at $379. Elon NEVER stated “am taking it private”.

I just “assumed” he would. My fault and mine alone. You know.... personal responsibility does still count.

 

[Reality]

Investor commitment to Tesla is amazing. Most companies would be down a lot more than this on a criminal probe news.


Honestly though, even as a bear I see it as a non news story. We knew there would HAVE to be some investigation. Proof is another story.


I will say if an email turns up somewhere with Elon saying he did it to burn shorts......that is prison time.

 

[tivoboy]

This is my feeling as well. There would have to be proof that Musk was doing all of this to manipulate stock price without having anything to back it up. Proof that he was doing it to profit from the manipulation. Don't see the case there.

OTOH, the years long 'investigation' which as per shortsville would definitely climax with the exposure of the fraud Musk, the truth that no cars have actually been built, and a penalty of a public flogging and lifetime sentence in supermax. Oh, and the green room they simulate all the SpaceX launches would have to be torn down as well.

Yeah they got a few years worth of material here.

I'll take the other side of this view.. Just for kicks and giggles.

From the way I see it. the CEO of a high profile publicly traded company made a public announcement and put a very specific take out price (not price target, but PRICE) on the stock, and said that he had "funding secured" of what would have to be a SUBSTANTIAL amount of M&A capital. The indication and assumption here of "funding secured" was that for those who have done M&A, would indicate that a significant body of work, discussions, analysis, modeling and relationship building had probably been done.

The BOARD of the company effectively knew NOTHING about this at the time. The board went on to actually distance itself (and the company) from the statements of the CEO who made the comments, while somewhat supporting the CEO's opportunity to discuss the option with the board and outsiders.

At that point, all parties scrambled to make sense of the comments and back it up with possibilities. And then apparently decided that in the span of a few days/week, they had decided that well, "it wasn't in the best interest of the shareholders" I've worked on M&A deals, NOTHING happens that fast - at all.

I don't see this as something that is going to lead nowhere from a penalty or censure of someone or the company in some way.

I don't like it. I don't WANT it, but I'm not putting my head in the sand about what really appears to have happened and what the POSSIBLE repercussions could be.

just my .02$

 

[ZachF]

This is probably just a personal vendetta from Jeff Sessions because of his idiotic view on Marijuana;

For what it's worth, while the country is pretty polarized, but both my right wing and left wing friends think Jeff Sessions is terrible.

 

[Reality]

I bought several shares at $379. Elon NEVER stated “am taking it private”.

I just “assumed” he would. My fault and mine alone. You know.... personal responsibility does still count.

he did say "Funding Secured" and it is apparent now (and admitted so) that it wasnt true.


What I find odd, is it isnt that statement that is the one to really bury him (if he in fact doenst survive this) the follow up one about "pending only a shareholder vote" is far more egregious of a lie imo.

 

[humbaba]

What I would like to know is if the short exposure increased? Was it weak hands selling? Was it bots reacting to the news? Or was this orchestrated and acted upon by shorts who sold big time with the opening? Weak hands or bot reaction means someone is out of luck. If it was a short activity, then the percentage of shorts should have increased - unless they are slowly covering now to make a few bucks and enjoy the reset in price from which they will continue to play their games.

I don't have access to data to check this, but above someone mentioned a sale of 30k shares shortly before the news dropped. If they covered/are covering that is a bit shy of $1m profit. Not that I expect the SEC to investigate.

 

[mongo]

Not just that, within just ~2 weeks of the tweet Tesla's board had a formal meeting with two big Wall Street firms presenting to the Tesla board a going-private construct with ~30 billion dollars not just secured but also committed to the private buyout. The Tesla board decided to not go private after that presentation.

So if this is about the 'funding secured' wording, then it was also demonstrated to be true - and truth is an absolute defense against allegations of fraud. The SEC and DOJ, no matter who runs it and with what bad intention towards Tesla, won't be able to make that fly in a court of law.

Not quite:
Per NYT: Why Elon Musk Reversed Course on Taking Tesla PrivateWhy Elon Musk Reversed Course on Taking Tesla Private

After a Silver Lake representative made a presentation expressing confidence in their ability to manage the process of taking Tesla private — a transaction that could have required $24 billion or more — the Wall Street representatives left the room, and the floor was given to Mr. Musk.

But instead of telling his board just how far he’d come in securing new investors for a potential deal, Mr. Musk backtracked: He no longer believed going private was in the best interest of the company, and he would not be bringing forward a proposal to buy out the company.

Silver Lake said they could handle the process, not that funding was confirmed. Then Musk, not the board, said it wasn't a good idea after all.

Edit: WSJ had a better article that detailed the funding sources. Thanks for the correction @Fact Checking

 

[SO16]

Investor commitment to Tesla is amazing. Most companies would be down a lot more than this on a criminal probe ....

Because most of us realize this is just more BS. Tesla is disrupting major industries and they are fighting tooth and nail. If Elon hadn’t tweeted Pedo, smoked weed or the funding secured, there would just be some other “sky is falling” accusation out there. This will blow over....like almost every other short thesis has ultimately done.

 

[humbaba]

he did say "Funding Secured" and it is apparent now (and admitted so) that it wasnt true.


What I find odd, is it isnt that statement that is the one to really bury him (if he in fact doenst survive this) the follow up one about "pending only a shareholder vote" is far more egregious of a lie imo.

Care to back up your claim that "he admitted" funding wasn't secured? Don't bother replying if all you have is the clarification relative to "secured" -- I mean a clear statement that he admits to not having the funding.

Also, how is your claim "pending only a shareholder vote" an egregious lie?

 

[ZachF]

Investor commitment to Tesla is amazing. Most companies would be down a lot more than this on a criminal probe news.


Honestly though, even as a bear I see it as a non news story. We knew there would HAVE to be some investigation. Proof is another story.


I will say if an email turns up somewhere with Elon saying he did it to burn shorts......that is prison time.

The entire financial industry peddled raw dogsugar marketed as swiss chocolate, it almost collapsed the US economy, and they got several trillion dollars in taxpayer money as a punishment.

Whatever you think Musk did pales to what the finance industry does every day as SOP.

 

[mongo]

he did say "Funding Secured" and it is apparent now (and admitted so) that it wasnt true.


What I find odd, is it isnt that statement that is the one to really bury him (if he in fact doenst survive this) the follow up one about "pending only a shareholder vote" is far more egregious of a lie imo.

What is your reference for either statement?
Per: Staying Public

Although the majority of shareholders I spoke to said they would remain with Tesla if we went private, the sentiment, in a nutshell, was “please don’t do this.”

That said, my belief that there is more than enough funding to take Tesla private was reinforced during this process.

 

[SO16]

This. Exactly.

Elon said he had someone that was offering $420 per share of Tesla. Given that a large part of automakers' valuations are their access to capital markets, this was a material statement.

And it was materially false. We're here 6 weeks later, and still no one has said there was a terms sheet with a share price. No one has validated that this deal was anywhere close. The board made the necessary committees AFTER the announcement. Major shareholders last week said they were consulted AFTER the announcement.

If it's proven that Elon did it to manipulate the share price, he's going to jail.

If if if if if if if if if

 

[nwdiver]

For what it's worth, while the country is pretty polarized, but both my right wing and left wing friends think Jeff Sessions is terrible.

That's not worth much; Real Americans hate him because he's an amalgamation of the worst parts of 1950 Jim Crow South but have some respect for him for holding the orange bigot accountable. Russicans hate him for holding the orange bigot accountable... but LOVE the 1950s thing.

Literally polar opposite reasons...

 

[EVNow]

I bought several shares at $379.

I beat you by $2 !

Sold yesterday at $300, for a tidy loss. Will buy some calls with that money today.

 

[Reality]

If Elon hadn’t tweeted Pedo, smoked weed or the funding secured, there would just be some other “sky is falling” accusation out there.

Think about this for a second.


What you are stating is

"If I hadnt shot myself in the foot, then you definitely would have"


And then hating the accused non-shooter for shooting yourself in the foot.


This type of thought process is honestly fascinating to me. Shorts dont have anything to do with this, and i have been positive about it not being as significant as made out to be unless there is some material proof it was to 'hurt shorts' (we know it was but proving it will be tough).


Seriously though, read that sentence, and think about it

 

[SO16]

Think about this for a second.


What you are stating is

"If I hadnt shot myself in the foot, then you definitely would have"


And then hating the accused non-shooter for shooting yourself in the foot.


This type of thought process is honestly fascinating to me. Shorts dont have anything to do with this, and i have been positive about it not being as significant as made out to be unless there is some material proof it was to 'hurt shorts' (we know it was but proving it will be tough).


Seriously though, read that sentence, and think about it

I’m saying the amount of noise around Tesla is amplified.