TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[pxxt]

That is just a parody account. Thought it was clear. The funniest thing is the chart, but the tweets are good too.

great trap

 

[dqd88]

It’s all virtue signaling. It has nothing to do with being the quickest cars on the planet & the safest. No one gets excited about Tesla launches or AutoPilot or the sheer beauty of the cars. It’s all just virtue signaling.

In fact, every Tesla owner is just a frustrated Prius fan who had to settle. If Toyota would just make enough Priuses, people would stop buying Teslas altogether.

this is insanely awesome. it needs to be more popular. can you imagine this race with the roadster. omg

 

[DragonWatch]

Yes I absolutely agree. I believe that is why they are rolling out with the Semi first (and Roadster). Those vehicles are about big brawniness and badass speed. Not the stuff of soccer moms. Elon is a genius at understanding consumer psychology. Leaf/Bolt/Prius don't have the cool factor (no offense to anyone, but you know what I mean). Elon knows that elec has to be cool if it is to beat ICE. That's the only way you convince the guy who's dream car is a mustang or F150 to switch.

Now wait a soccer ball minute. I helped pioneer soccer back in the sixties so that mom’s could be callled soccer mom’s instead of football or baseball mom’s ~ see, just does not have the ring

 

[lklundin]

Commuting to work is dumb. Everyone who can work from home should. Then we don't need new freeways or new tunnels.

ps : I'm not blaming people who commute - but companies that make commuting necessary. If you are not in manufacturing or face-to-face service, working from home should be the norm. Unfortunately too few companies adopt this pro-environment policy.

There are other aspects to this discussion, e.g.:
In some places (e-)cycling is feasible or right out optimal, something that is pro-environment.
For some, the physical work place is a significant part of the daily socialising, preferable to staying at home.

 

[emir-t]

I hope they give the Q3 delivery/production numbers today before markets open. I can't stand the tension of holding onto my call option. Shorts can spread another FUD anytime and I don't want to lose whatever profit I have in pursuit of even more profit since 315+ SP isn't so far out. Yet we're so close...

 

[dondy]

The tinfoil hat inclined among us believe there has been a well-funded program in place for several years to depress Tesla's stock. Shorting is one of the tactics of the program, often coordinated with media activities, but as is often the case with rich people there are many more tools in the box. ATM looks like one of them is pressure on regulatory agencies.

There are also what one might call "retail shorts" who are looking to make money, not to lose as little money as possible to secure the desired results, as is the case with the nebulous participants in the program I've called the Chuck & Dave Show, for no particular reason. I think C&D often play the retail shorts to help make their own operation more efficient.

analytic targets feed rating downgrades which are all meant to reduce Tesla's capacity to expand by capitalization.
Noise and complains to SEC about "wrong" organization of Tesla leadership is targeting management efficiency.
MM noise is targeting employees force or better said their relatives and casual possible Tesla customers. This noise is always a very good "signal" for waiving managers of mutual funds.
Making Tesla stock volatile is just one of the used instruments.

What is interesting that if they wouldn't do it in 2016-2017 Tesla probably would grow too quick and half-collapse due to insufficient self-organization critical for any corporation and weak professional pool to fish specialists from. It would be much more inefficient than now.

 

[dqd88]

What's does the Q in TSLAQ stand for?

 

[lklundin]

0001564590-18-023716 | 8-K | Tesla, Inc.
Elon's email to employees regarding profitability.

I was (pa)trolling the RealTesla sub-reddit and people there were seriously convinced that Elon Musk's profitability email to Tesla's employees falls in the category of communication regulated by the SEC, i.e. that he is already in violation of his settlement. A recurring argument is that EM should be able to foresee that a so widely disseminated email would be leaked and that he was in fact counting on that.

This probably sounds incredibly stupid, but I do need to check my sanity:

Can it really be that an internal company email can count as disclosure of information, per the definition the SEC uses?

 

[dqd88]

I was (pa)trolling the RealTesla sub-reddit and people there were seriously convinced that Elon Musk's profitability email to Tesla's employees falls in the category of communication regulated by the SEC, i.e. that he is already in violation of his settlement. A recurring argument is that EM should be able to foresee that a so widely disseminated email would be leaked and that he was in fact counting on that.

This probably sounds incredibly stupid, but I do need to check my sanity:

Can it really be that an internal company email can count as disclosure of information, per the definition the SEC uses?

No, it's not a violation. They did however cover their asses w/ an 8-K.

 

[cheshire cat]

I was (pa)trolling the RealTesla sub-reddit and people there were seriously convinced that Elon Musk's profitability email to Tesla's employees falls in the category of communication regulated by the SEC, i.e. that he is already in violation of his settlement. A recurring argument is that EM should be able to foresee that a so widely disseminated email would be leaked and that he was in fact counting on that.

This probably sounds incredibly stupid, but I do need to check my sanity:

Can it really be that an internal company email can count as disclosure of information, per the definition the SEC uses?

" Evil is in the eye of the beholder "--------- but you have to know what you're looking for.

 

[bhtooefr]

That's something that some of the shorts have been thinking about for a while. How much of the demand is driven by virtue-signaling and how transferrable is that to non-Californian markets. I think it works to some degree in the Northeast and coastal enclaves in Washington/Oregon, as well as in HK and southeastern Australia. I don't think it will have a lot of drive in the rest of North America or Asia. Europe I don't know well enough to judge.

So, the obvious comparison is to the Prius.

It sold 53,991 units in the US in 2004, 107,897 in 2005, 106,971 in 2006, and 181,221 in 2007. (That was a peak until 2012, when new models under the Prius brand came out.)

Tesla's delivered an estimated 90k cars in the US, not including September's deliveries, and there's huge amounts of unsatisfied demand behind that. If we assume that the 2004 Prius sales are low because of ramping (they were IIRC), and the 2005/2006 Prius sales are pure virtue signalling (I don't think they are), Tesla is on track to have beaten that as soon as Q3 sales figures drop, while still ramping.

 

[bhtooefr]

What's does the Q in TSLAQ stand for?

It's a suffix added to a ticker symbol of a company undergoing bankruptcy. So, shorts that go on about "TSLAQ" are basically saying that they expect Tesla to go bankrupt.

...although NASDAQ doesn't actually use a Q suffix any more, but they say that some markets may still use the Q: https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/conten...taproducts/nasdaqfifthcharactersuffixlist.pdf

 

[dqd88]

It's a suffix added to a ticker symbol of a company undergoing bankruptcy. So, shorts that go on about "TSLAQ" are basically saying that they expect Tesla to go bankrupt.

...although NASDAQ doesn't actually use a Q suffix any more, but they say that some markets may still use the Q: https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/conten...taproducts/nasdaqfifthcharactersuffixlist.pdf

thanks!

 

[Words of HABIT]

Is TSLA over valued as of yesterday's close of $310?

A long long time ago, September 2014, TSLA was trading at today's market valuation if you factor in 2.5% annual inflation. Another way to look at it is that TSLA gained an average of 2.5% over the last four years.

What did September 2014 look like?
- Tesla produced one car, the Model S at a worldwide delivery rate of 3,000 MS/month
- Tesla had <230 Supercharger stations worldwide
- The Model X was prototyped in 2012 but would not begin production until September 2015, and not in volume >1000 MX/month until early 2016
- Model 3 would not be unveiled for more than one and a half years later (March 2016)
- The Model Y was an outlier illusive vision.
- The 2nd Gen Roadster was not even on the radar to shareholders
- The Semi was not even on the radar to shareholders
- The Merger with Solar City would not take place for more than two years (November 2016)
- There was no surfboards or phone charges.
- The Boring Company did not exist along with its boring hats and boring not-a-flame throwers.
- SpaceX would not land a booster rocket back on earth for another three and a half years (March 2017)
- SpaceX BFR was a pipe dream.
- No credible competition from other major auto manufacturers.

And Today?
- Tesla is exiting September at conservatively delivery 10X the car delivery rate per month of September 2014 and growing.
- MX is now outselling MS and that is with MS maintaining 2 &1/2 times the deliver rate thought even possible.
- M3 deliveries growing exponentially and still only available in only US and Canada with worldwide push now imminent.
- There are well in excess of 10,000 Supercharger and close to 1500 Supercharger stations worldwide and rapidly growing.
- Tesla have released multiple workings prototypes for 2nd Gen Roadster and Semi, has booked orders for, and scheduled to begin production within 24 months.
- Reveal date has been tentatively scheduled for MY (March 2019).
- Powerwalls and solar is starting to take off with major projects in Australia.
- Boring in Chicago and LA has begun.
- SpaceX landing booster rockets is a monthly/weekly routine.
- SpaceX scheduled to be flying astronauts to the ISS mid 2019.
- SpaceX BFR is currently under construction.
- And still no credible competition from other major auto manufacturers.

So I ask you again, is TSLA over valued as of yesterday's close of $310?

 

[Thekiwi]

Is TSLA over valued as of yesterday's close of $310?

A long long time ago, September 2014, TSLA was trading at today's market valuation if you factor in 2.5% annual inflation. Another way to look at it is that TSLA gained an average of 2.5% over the last four years.

What did September 2014 look like?
- Tesla produced one car, the Model S at a worldwide delivery rate of 3,000 MS/month
- Tesla had <230 Supercharger stations worldwide
- The Model X was prototyped in 2012 but would not begin production until September 2015, and not in volume >1000 MX/month until early 2016
- Model 3 would not be unveiled for more than one and a half years later (March 2016)
- The Model Y was an outlier illusive vision.
- The 2nd Gen Roadster was not even on the radar to shareholders
- The Semi was not even on the radar to shareholders
- The Merger with Solar City would not take place for more than two years (November 2016)
- There was no surfboards or phone charges.
- The Boring Company did not exist along with its boring hats and boring not-a-flame throwers.
- SpaceX would not land a booster rocket back on earth for another three and a half years (March 2017)
- SpaceX BFR was a pipe dream.
- No credible competition from other major auto manufacturers.

And Today?
- We are exiting September at conservatively delivery >25,000 cars/month
- M3 deliveries growing exponentially and still only available in only US and Canada with worldwide push now imminent
- There are well in excess of 10,000 Supercharger and close to 1500 Supercharger stations worldwide and rapidly growing.
- Tesla have released multiple workings prototypes for 2nd Gen Roadster and Semi, has booked orders for, and scheduled to begin production within 24 months.
- Reveal date has been tentatively scheduled for MY (March 2019)
- Powerwalls and solar is starting to take off with major projects in Australia
- Boring in Chicago and LA has begun
- SpaceX landing booster rockets is a monthly/weekly routine.
- SpaceX scheduled to be flying astronauts to the ISS mid 2019.
- SpaceX BFR is currently under construction.
- And still no credible competition from other major auto manufacturers.

So I ask you again, is TSLA over valued as of yesterday's close of $310?

I’m just being overly picky here - but did you adjust valuation for outstanding share count? (Sep 2014 was around 125 million shares vs 170 million today)

In regards to your valuation question I do think it’s very undervalued today.

 

[Fact Checking]

It's a suffix added to a ticker symbol of a company undergoing bankruptcy. So, shorts that go on about "TSLAQ" are basically saying that they expect Tesla to go bankrupt.

...although NASDAQ doesn't actually use a Q suffix any more, but they say that some markets may still use the Q: https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/conten...taproducts/nasdaqfifthcharactersuffixlist.pdf

Yeah, for NASDAQ the 'Q' suffix is all kinds of awkward: is NASDAQ the ticker symbol for the bankrupt NASDA Corporation?

 

[jeewee3000]

Is TSLA over valued as of yesterday's close of $310?

A long long time ago, September 2014, TSLA was trading at today's market valuation if you factor in 2.5% annual inflation. Another way to look at it is that TSLA gained an average of 2.5% over the last four years.

What did September 2014 look like?
- Tesla produced one car, the Model S at a worldwide delivery rate of 3,000 MS/month
- Tesla had <230 Supercharger stations worldwide
- The Model X was prototyped in 2012 but would not begin production until September 2015, and not in volume >1000 MX/month until early 2016
- Model 3 would not be unveiled for more than one and a half years later (March 2016)
- The Model Y was an outlier illusive vision.
- The 2nd Gen Roadster was not even on the radar to shareholders
- The Semi was not even on the radar to shareholders
- The Merger with Solar City would not take place for more than two years (November 2016)
- There was no surfboards or phone charges.
- The Boring Company did not exist along with its boring hats and boring not-a-flame throwers.
- SpaceX would not land a booster rocket back on earth for another three and a half years (March 2017)
- SpaceX BFR was a pipe dream.
- No credible competition from other major auto manufacturers.

And Today?
- Tesla is exiting September at conservatively delivery 10X the car delivery rate per month of September 2014 and growing.
- MX is now outselling MS and that is with MS maintaining 2 &1/2 times the deliver rate thought even possible.
- M3 deliveries growing exponentially and still only available in only US and Canada with worldwide push now imminent.
- There are well in excess of 10,000 Supercharger and close to 1500 Supercharger stations worldwide and rapidly growing.
- Tesla have released multiple workings prototypes for 2nd Gen Roadster and Semi, has booked orders for, and scheduled to begin production within 24 months.
- Reveal date has been tentatively scheduled for MY (March 2019).
- Powerwalls and solar is starting to take off with major projects in Australia.
- Boring in Chicago and LA has begun.
- SpaceX landing booster rockets is a monthly/weekly routine.
- SpaceX scheduled to be flying astronauts to the ISS mid 2019.
- SpaceX BFR is currently under construction.
- And still no credible competition from other major auto manufacturers.

So I ask you again, is TSLA over valued as of yesterday's close of $310?

You're talking to TMC-members, so your post is the equivalent of going to an NRA rally and asking if you can protect your family without owning a gun .

 

[Words of HABIT]

I’m just being overly picky here - but did you adjust valuation for outstanding share count? (Sep 2014 was around 125 million shares vs 170 million today)

In regards to your valuation question I do think it’s very undervalued today.

No, I did not.
I as well believe TSLA to be very undervalued today.

 

[Fact Checking]

I hope they give the Q3 delivery/production numbers today before markets open. I can't stand the tension of holding onto my call option. Shorts can spread another FUD anytime and I don't want to lose whatever profit I have in pursuit of even more profit since 315+ SP isn't so far out. Yet we're so close...

BTW., here's a re-post of my earlier analysis of timestamps of the past 11 delivery reports, which I guess is still useful:

So here's the filing records going back to 2015/Q4:

2015/Q4: Filing Date: 2016-01-04 (Mon), Accepted: 2016-01-04 06:05:35 (Mon), Period of Report: 2016-01-03 (Sun)
2016/Q1: Filing Date: 2016-04-04 (Mon), Accepted: 2016-04-04 16:57:12 (Mon), Period of Report: 2016-04-04 (Mon)
2016/Q2: Filing Date: 2016-07-05 (Tue), Accepted: 2016-07-05 06:17:10 (Mon), Period of Report: 2016-07-03 (Sun)
2016/Q3: Filing Date: 2016-10-03 (Sun), Accepted: 2016-10-03 16:47:46 (Sun), Period of Report: 2016-10-02 (Sat)
2016/Q4: Filing Date: 2017-01-03 (Tue), Accepted: 2017-01-03 16:25:20 (Tue), Period of Report: 2017-01-03 (Tue)
2017/Q1: Filing Date: 2017-04-03 (Sun), Accepted: 2017-04-03 06:02:22 (Sun), Period of Report: 2017-04-02 (Sat)
2017/Q2: Filing Date: 2017-07-03 (Mon), Accepted: 2017-07-03 15:21:19 (Mon), Period of Report: 2017-07-03 (Mon)
2017/Q3: Filing Date: 2017-10-02 (Mon), Accepted: 2017-10-02 17:19:16 (Mon), Period of Report: 2017-10-02 (Mon)
2017/Q4: Filing Date: 2018-01-03 (Wed), Accepted: 2018-01-03 17:10:27 (Wed), Period of Report: 2018-01-03 (Wed)
2018/Q1: Filing Date: 2018-04-03 (Tue), Accepted: 2018-04-03 09:00:33 (Tue), Period of Report: 2018-04-03 (Tue)
2018/Q2: Filing Date: 2018-07-02 (Mon), Accepted: 2018-07-02 09:04:06 (Mon), Period of Report: 2018-07-02 (Mon)

Key takeaways:

• Out of these 11 data points, the three earliest ones were filed on the 4th and 5th
  
• The exact timestamp within the day varies: early trading hours: 3x 6am, 2x 9am, one report was filed intraday at 15:21, and after-hours time range, 5x 16:25-17:19.
• The last two reports were filed at 9:00am and 9:04am, so maybe this time it will be before the market opens as well.
• Monday indeed seems to be the preferred filing day (6x), but there's two Tuesdays the 3rd and one Wednesday the 3rd.
• Never was a delivery report filed on the 1st in this data set. This might have to do with having an extra day to collect the end of quarter delivery data and maybe a day to sign off on the language of the report, which varies from report to report and often includes other guidance as well.

October 2018 is similar to January 2018, where the first day of the month was a Monday too. Then they filed on the third day, i.e. on a Wednesday, after the market closed, at 17:10 - but this might have been delayed by New Years Eve.

So my guess for the Q3 delivery report is still the 2nd of October, Tuesday, at around 9am, before the market opens.

After the market at 4-5pm Tuesday is the next slot, and 9am tomorrow (Wednesday) would be the slot after that. But Tesla has been posting delivery reports intraday as well, and at other dates - so be prepared for an arbitrary timing.

 

[SO16]

"Defensible"...does not mean you will win. It just means you have enough to build a case for the defense. Apparently, Musk's legal team strongly disagreed.

Gotta hand it to you. You are an expert and spinning EVERYTHING!