TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Freder Reeve]

"What if Elon was telling the truth about the Saudis wanting to fund Tesla?"

I believe he was. This all ties together when the real timeline of events leading to his privatization tweet are addressed as opposed to the media = lies by omission version. The Now You Know guys nailed it, (skip to 6:05 to get to the point):

 

[wipster]

I have seen that movie! I was going to ask you if that's what it was from, but I couldn't remember the title! Thanks for posting it, I really liked the movie... a bit odd, but quite enjoyable (unless you live in the North of Norway)!

Speaking only in memes and references? Sounds fun.

Musk and Straubel at Dubai.

Elon, his eyes open.

 

[avoigt]

Elon in good mood.... tweet storm on the way. funny.



Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk
Replying to @incentives101 @Jason @Tesla
Yes, but

in

that we’re creating a generalized autonomy solution. Must work in millions of strange

situations.

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[MXWing]

Elon in good mood.... tweet storm on the way. funny.



Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk
Replying to @incentives101 @Jason @Tesla
Yes, but

in

that we’re creating a generalized autonomy solution. Must work in millions of strange

situations.

Elon Musk on Twitter

Is there an emoji for short shorts? Not regular shorts but short shorts.

 

[sundaymorning]

Elon in good mood.... tweet storm on the way. funny.



Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk
Replying to @incentives101 @Jason @Tesla
Yes, but

in

that we’re creating a generalized autonomy solution. Must work in millions of strange

situations.

Elon Musk on Twitter

Regarding the GM super cruise:

The GM super cruise only works on certain freeways that GM has mapped out. You cannot take the super cruise on freeways that GM hasn’t mapped out yet, and that’s a whole lot of unmapped freeways around the US/Europe/world. Hence, Elon is alluding to the fact that “autonomy must work in millions of strange solutions.” He’s not taking a jab at GM, this is just my take that GM super Cruise isn’t what it’s sold to be.

 

[NikeWings]

Can anyone explain to me why are banks hitting up Tesla w/ refi offers? Is this standard procedure when debt gets near due?

Yes, its very normal, and often at least a year in advance depending on circumstances.
What's not normal is for $1.8B 8yr corp bonds issued barely 14 months ago to be trading at 84 and change.

 

[Kenshi]

Not to derail things, but I have Apple stock and haven’t seen any fox video today... I looked around but don’t see much, anything I should be aware of?

Check out the video included in today's article. Same reporter:
Elon Musk's Twitter tirade comes amid SEC probe on Tesla's Model 3 production ramp

My theory is the shorts are running out of time. They need to spread maximum FUD before Q3 report is out.
But can Murdoch do something about it, being the owner of Fox News and board member of TSLA?

 

[bdy0627]

I test drove the model 3 performance model yesterday. The car is
Amazing, the equivalent of the iPhone in the automotible sector.
The demand for it will be there as far as the eye can see. Beyond
500,000 per year for the next decade I would guess. Unless
You try it you may not understand it.

Just my opinion. However it tells me that tesla will be very
Successful and so will the stock. After the near term turbulence
Settles down , it will appreciate

I completely agree. I've been driving mine for over a month now. I loved my S. I love this 3 even more. Part of what is so frustrating, probably to Elon as well, is that Tesla is finally there - producing an average of 4,000+ per week, the car is awesome and people completely love it, yet...the stock is tanking. Looking at the price action over the last few months, you'd think Tesla was at a similar point to about 1 year ago. Not even close. They ARE executing now. I keep seeing twitter posts and input from commentators that Tesla might eke out a profit for Q3, but it's downhill from there. I also see that nearly everyone on the bearish/short/media side appears to believe that there is no way Tesla is going to be cash flow positive for Q3 and going forward. I think part of the reason TSLA tanked so hard this past week is with the rising interest rates, investors believe Tesla will find it very difficult to fund their growth moving forward in a profitable way. There really don't seem to be many people that expect Tesla to have positive cash flow for Q3. If Tesla managed things well, according to the estimate from @luvb2b, they should be at least $500M cash flow positive with an outside shot at $1B. The media/shorts can spin things negatively very easily, but that's a tough one to make go away in support of the "Tesla is doomed and will need to be recapitalized/restructured soon." When I've seen people mention that Tesla will be cash flow positive, it is totally blown off and denied by the skeptics. It seems obvious to me that the market may well yawn at a small profit for the quarter. However, anyone yawning at significantly cash flow positive has their head in the sand.

 

[MXWing]

Ford, an Automaker at a Crossroads, Seeks Cuts and Partners

Ford dying.

Not a matter of IF but WHEN.

Ford should take whatever money they have left and invest in Tesla.

Marrying Tesla batteries and drivetrains to F150's may not be completely efficient and optimal at the start. However, it would be an amazing stop gap until they can jointly produce a truck built around EV technology.

 

[wipster]

Regarding the GM super cruise:

The GM super cruise only works on certain freeways that GM has mapped out. You cannot take the super cruise on freeways that GM hasn’t mapped out yet, and that’s a whole lot of unmapped freeways around the US/Europe/world. Hence, Elon is alluding to the fact that “autonomy must work in millions of strange solutions.” He’s not taking a jab at GM, this is just my take that GM super Cruise isn’t what it’s sold to be.

That's exactly what I I thought when I read it. The "Super Cruise" should have been super disqualified IMHO.

 

[avoigt]

I believe he was. This all ties together when the real timeline of events leading to his privatization tweet are addressed as opposed to the media = lies by omission version. The Now You Know guys nailed it, (skip to 6:05 to get to the point):

That an excellent analysis - good insights and thoughts - the last reaction from the judge fits into the picture....

 

[Kenshi]

Usually the shorts post something that is actually happening, normal and ordinary and claim it is the end of Tesla. See the recent "discussion" about car carriers staging on Kato Rd, right by the factory, and delivery center.

I don't think this is the usual retail shorts you see on Twitter. It's probably some large institution shorts with a direct line to @CGasparino.

So Ill ask again -- as I am not familair with the bond market and all the arcane processes of Wall St. -- is this a normal or expected process?

I think banks can approach any company with an unsolicited loan offer. Shorts can easily ask a bank to do so and spin the story through media.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Yes, its very normal, and often at least a year in advance depending on circumstances.
What's not normal is for $1.8B 8yr corp bonds issued barely 14 months ago to be trading at 84 and change.

It is normal in a rising interest rate environment.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Regarding the GM super cruise:

The GM super cruise only works on certain freeways that GM has mapped out. You cannot take the super cruise on freeways that GM hasn’t mapped out yet, and that’s a whole lot of unmapped freeways around the US/Europe/world. Hence, Elon is alluding to the fact that “autonomy must work in millions of strange solutions.” He’s not taking a jab at GM, this is just my take that GM super Cruise isn’t what it’s sold to be.

And even on those roads, it performs worse than AP(this isn’t just my opinion, both commonly cited comparisons state that this is the case, but end up dinging AP for allowing use where they don’t think it should be used) as it is now. They don’t even try to compete with the functionality Elon is talking about there.

 

[Off Shore]

Yet many people actively work against it. It's hard to believe but it's true.

Everybody likes clean air for themselves.

 

[MXWing]

Oh *sugar*.. just found out a friend of a friend is Anton Wahlman, my favorite Tesla short. When I mean favorite, I'm a big fan of clowns.

I need a advice on how to proceed STAT.

Seriously.

Step one is getting my friend to buy a Tesla. Urgency level has gone up on that referral.

 

[DaveT]

Would love to hear what y'all think of some of my most recent thoughts on Elon vs SEC. Though I don't agree with the SEC going after Elon so harshly, I also don't agree with Elon attacking and blaming the SEC, the media and shortsellers. If he doesn't stop, there's a good chance that Elon won't be CEO for much longer... and that would be a very sad outcome.

Part 1: The Turning Tide - Why the SEC is going after Elon and why he’s losing many of his most ardent fans

Alright, here’s part 2 in my blog post series. After all parts are done I’m hoping to put it altogether in one post. Please PM me if you have any ideas on how we can get Elon to read the final compilation.

DaveT on Chatstarter: "Part 2: The Turning Tide - Why Elon vs SEC might have a very bad ending"

Also, I'm looking for quality feedback. Just @ me in the thread so I can see it.

 

[sundaymorning]

Check out the video included in today's article. Same reporter:
Elon Musk's Twitter tirade comes amid SEC probe on Tesla's Model 3 production ramp

My theory is the shorts are running out of time. They need to spread maximum FUD before Q3 report is out.
But can Murdoch do something about it, being the owner of Fox News and board member of TSLA?

Shorts contacted the SEC about the S ramp, then the X ramp, and now that the Model 3 has been so widely adopted/covered by the media, the SEC has taken an interest in inquiring about Tesla’s model 3 reservations (to see if they’re real or all made up), they’ve also contacted the sec to look into Model 3 production, and as a last ditch effort, they’ll likely contact the sec to count Tesla’s each and individual cell produced at the GF.

C’mon shorts, all Tesla cars are built like any other, they have ViNs that are registered with the government/dmv. Panasonic is pumping out as many batteries as they can humanly pump for Tesla, maybe Panasonic is colluding with Tesla as well? Then there’s also all those other car manufactures/suppliers (literally thousands) who are also colluding with Tesla to inflate numbers right? This is why Tesla has missed its target quarter after quarter for the past 1 year?

This is not Enron, where you can just create fake companies to inflate numbers. Tesla has thousands of real suppliers who are pushed to their maximum limit to supply Tesla parts for Model 3, when there is a delay, shareholders know about it.

What about when Tesla missed its production target by the thousands per quarter? Was Tesla making up numbers? I smell a sore loser in the short thesis, they’re about to get crushed and are throwing the kitchen sink, knives, spoons, and anything they can kind. Even claiming that the 40 undelivered Tesla Model 3s were somehow experiencing demand issues. Wow, just wow! How dumb can one be to even believe shorts after all these years of constant manipulation. They’ve been wrong quarter after quarter after quarter for years.

 

[NikeWings]

It is normal in a rising interest rate environment.

Show me the math supporting it as normal....even back of the envelope is OK since it's Saturday.

 

[Off Shore]

Tesla: The Model 3 is now the best selling luxury car in America - CNN

Just putting this here to remind people we had an outstanding quarter in terms of deliveries. That's a fact, among all the fiction.

OK. Twenty paragraphs. Thirteen are negative. Here are the other seven:

1. The Tesla Model 3 is now the bestselling luxury car in America. By a lot.

2. Tesla prefers to use the term "premium sedan" to describe the Model 3, rather than luxury model. The company did not offer a comment for this story. [counting this one as neutral--informative].

3. But the Model 3 is currently competing with America's luxury brands -- whether or not Tesla wants to admit it. And the numbers show that it's beating that competition -- by a large margin.

4. "If [sic] look at what the company has done, it's truly unprecedented," said Rebecca Lindland, senior analyst for Cox Automotive. "It's not only almost single handedly jump started the electric vehicle segment, it's moved from a niche automaker to be a mainstream competitor for the luxury brands."

5. Tesla announced Tuesday that it sold 55,840 Model 3s in the third quarter, nearly all of which went to American customers. The Audi Q5 was the next bestselling luxury model in the United States -- Audi sold 21,000 of them over the past three months.

6. To put the Model 3's success in perspective, Tesla sold more Model 3s than GM sold Cadillacs or Buicks -- of any model. The Model 3 also outsold all Honda Acuras and Ford's Lincolns and Tesla sold more Model 3s than Lexus, BMW, Mercedes and Audi sold cars (when including SUVs, the big four luxury makers each outsold the Model 3).

7. The Model 3 surpassed those established brands even though Tesla doesn't advertise and, in most cases, Tesla has far fewer stores than its competitors' dealership network.

Those seven paragraphs, read alone, sound pretty good. Go back and read the article. It doesn't.

*Fair use claim: Extensive quoting needed to demonstrate intent.