TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EVNow]

I'm of the opinion that just about anything related to Tesla as a business is probably fine in this thread as it is somewhat relevant. For example, Karen's posts about possible disaster risks to the new China factory location. That seems relevant to me.

It seems to me - anything that is possibly affecting the SP - or can affect it in the short term is fine. Everything else can be mentioned here - with a link to a separate thread to discuss it. That would include tsunami's in Shanghai, h/w design, climate change - which are drivers for TSLA long term.

 

[avoigt]

Today was a little history day for me...... the last time at a Gas station .... the last time at an ICE dealer (Porsche).

The guy who did buy my car wanted to make a Porsche Guarantee Insurance that costs him € 2.100 for 2 years ($ 2.400). It includes almost nothing but gives a good feeling so thats why Porsche has a high margin.

The Porsche Dealer wanted to know if I buy a new car and I said "Yes, a Tesla" he tried to keep his emotions in place.....

Porsche release today that they will bring the Grand Tourismo Mission E on the road next after the Taycan. I applaud this. Good move and I hope the succeed but it will only have one effect for Tesla despite all Tesla-Killer talk and that is that it will support EV adoption and acceptance and Tesla will sell more instead of less.

Specs:

Range: 500 km
Acceleration: 0 - 100 km/h in 3,5 sec

Okay, but nothing impressive given that it will take years until we see it rather behind.

All the rest reads like speculation with some fancy gadgets like a bow display and other.

Elektro-Porsche Nummer zwei

 

[Joe F]

Not actually "raced", you had to apply and be approved by Ford for the original (2017) 1000 cars.
Jay Leno Garage has a detailed view of Jay's purchase process for Ford GT to pick colors, stripes, interior... I enjoyed the show.

So does that mean Ford has made 1000 and now they will make 1350 more? do you know??
Swan Song for Ford GT? Dino Juice Sports Car? or Ford?

FORD, Found On Road Dead not my cup of tea. Had enough problems with them, including a T-Bird that sat in the shop for almost 6 months with a corroded wiring harness, from firewall to tail lights, all one piece...

Increased "to" 1350 "from" 1000 kind of self explanatory I think.

"Raced" wasn't my word.

From Reuters:

REUTERS11:35 AM ET 10/18/2018
Symbol Last Price Change
F 8.555

-0.205 (-2.34%)
QUOTES AS OF 03:29:17 PM ET 10/18/2018
Oct 18(Reuters) - Ford Motor Co(F):

* FORD INCREASING GT PRODUCTION

* FORD MOTOR(F)- INCREASING FORD GT PRODUCTION TO 1,350 VEHICLES AFTER MORE THAN 6,500 APPLICANTS RACED TO SIGN UP FOR ORIGINAL 1,000 CARS ALLOTTED IN 2016 Source text for Eikon: [Ford Increasing GT Production to Make Ownership Dreams a Reality for 350 More Supercar Fans | Ford Media Center] Further company coverage:

 

[dondy]

Elon has a large pool of fans and a large pool of haters. He's a celebrity. The haters seem to think he's a liar and a huckster and a fake engineer. So be it. The media likes celebrity and controversy. Bezos or Reed hastings are alternate models. They don't make wild speculations and court attention. They just kick ass quietly like thieves.

All of that creates a kind of superficial layer of volatility on the stock. The main reason the SP has done poorly is because Tesla executed the model 3 ramp horribly.

Since when 2y ramp from 0-4000/w is "horrible". Care to point any other company with better performance?

The dreadnaught concept was mostly a failure.

LOL. It's position in Nevada can be counted as a failure. On the other hand finding big free place for LiOn factory would be next to impossible.
Nevada has no problem with polluting ground water, it doesn't have it.

And the sales/service/delivery quality has message threads all over with disgruntled individuals.

What percentage of them are real? Do you see many disgruntled individuals when visit Tesla's service center?
Simple question.

Meanwhile the op ex of the business climbed to such a level that it takes 5k per week of skimming off 60k$+ car orders from a backlog to break even. And somehow without sufficient explanation even at that price point the gross margin is only 15%. In this context of poor execution very significant team members have left, Elon called someone a pedo and launched a bizarre take private scheme in an impulsive manner.

LOL

There is probably a high chance that Tesla could have failed and died the last 9 months and some of that impression lingers.

What would be the reason for Tesla failing the last 9 months?
facepalm

 

[EVNow]

Yep, it's my fault. Everyone else predicted that we'd be flat for nearly five years, while I miscalculated the risks. I wonder what caused that?

Elon Musk on Twitter
Elon Musk on Twitter
Elon Musk on Twitter
Elon Musk on Twitter
Elon Musk on Twitter
Musk: This Is the 'Best I’ve Felt' About Tesla

My fault...

I'm done. Taking a break from TMC echo chamber. Going to go to YouTube.

If you are saying, EM says lots of highly optimistic things that don't turn out to be true, you are spot on.

But that isn't even some kind of novel observation. "Musk Time" is a thing for a good reason. When he says FSD will be available in 3 months (or 6 months definitely), you would still have to do your due diligence before making investment decisions.

 

[Tslynk67]

How so?

NFLX crushed earnings 2 days ago and it’s already back where it was (+/- 1%)

There will be no fear.

Tesla needs to enjoy sustained performance, needs to be bought, or needs a giant cash transaction to break this.

I think that's a consequence of the general tech pull-back/sell-off/crash/fire-sale* rather than a sudden loss of value in Netflix. One can only hope that Tesla wait until this general carnage is over before the announce earnings....

Tesla is doing just fine as far as I can see, just needs to keep on this current track.

* pick one

 

[cheshire cat]

I expected the Lemur to appear either before the market open or after it does close or never....

Patience...

Well, most are nocturnal, Aye Aye. (Not a reference to Bonny Scotland)

 

[defc0n]

The internets told me it will either be a Limbed Excursion Mechanical Utility Robot, or League of Electronic Musical Urban Robots.

 

[Tslynk67]

Genius design....

People have not even started to understand what the 3 really is about. It may take years for the word and the industry to comprehend.

The secret tech behind the Tesla Model 3 | Autocar

Wow, thanks for sharing that, so much going on that I was totally unaware of - Tesla engineers are even smarter than I thought!

 

[sevensven]

I volunteer to take on moderating / cleaning up this thread IF the powers-that-be are ok with me simply deleting every post in this thread that isn't related to market action, TSLA, or Tesla.

100% serious. This used to be a valuable resource. Now it's a chore to spend time wading through pages and pages to find some informative posts.

Would love it. I'm a recent user, can't like your post. Have been reading since the August "go private tweet" as I'm an European stockholder and this proved to be one of the best sources of information about the pending ramifications.

Following this thread is no longer viable at its current signal to noise ratio.

Making it related to Market Action, I'm considering dropping Netflix and Amazon to go almost all in on Tesla but had a bad experience in the wake to ER 2nd quarter (dropped Google for Tesla at ~350 - and have been averaging down) and think the same can happen again, i.e. even with profitability achieved no significant change in stock price.

Hi TMC, first post, will go back to lurking

 

[K_Dizzle]

@SpaceCash I'll break it down for you. It's pretty simple really.



Minimizing/dismissing someone else's point/feelings as irrelevant.



This is bullying, as @Krugerrand does often; it's not like I don't know I have the option to sell the stock, but he's persistently telling me to do so.



Personalizing discussion and pointing to failures, as if it has anything to do with the discussion at hand: TSLA underperformance & causes.



Unsolicited, critical, assuming advice.



"don't be so emotional" is classic emotional abuse. What do my emotions have to do with Tesla's underperformance and causes?

Many of @Krugerrand's posts include several emotional abuse examples.

by internet standards this abuse is about as hurtful as getting hit with a nerf gun. Illl give you some advice, don’t let others see you sweat. You probably lost some respect from the memebers here after today. My old manager used to say be like a duck, on the surface it moves through the water with grace and ease even though under water it frantically kicks its feet to stay afloat.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

by internet standards this abuse is about as hurtful as getting hit with a nerf gun. Illl give you some advice, don’t let others see you sweat. You probably lost some respect from the memebers here after today. My old manager used to say be like a duck, on the surface it moves through the water with grace and ease even though under water it frantically kicks its feet to stay afloat.

Thanks for the unsolicited advice; no sweating here, and zero weight placed on how much I'm "respected" by TMC Vigilantes... seriously?!

 

[Boomer19]

Here is another point of view.

In the long run we are all dead, enough with the rationalizations,
He simply sabotaged the ramp with his tweets

disagree with @Drax7 or @bdy0627 @tivoboy all you want. but they definitely didn’t have a positive impact..however intentioned.
at their core, they were distracting.

let’s move on.

on another note to robinhood users, not that everyone didn’t already know this, but my friend sent me this write up earlier..normally i don’t bother with SA, but this was informative
The Robinhood High-Frequency Trading Scandal: The Plot Thickens | Seeking Alpha
it’s not tesla market action, but it’s related to your trading and getting decent executions, when you do trade tesla. im referencing this because i’ve been saying it since i came here...it’s important to use a real broker

 

[Boomer19]

by internet standards this abuse is about as hurtful as getting hit with a nerf gun. Illl give you some advice, don’t let others see you sweat. You probably lost some respect from the memebers here after today. My old manager used to say be like a duck, on the surface it moves through the water with grace and ease even though under water it frantically kicks its feet to stay afloat.

or @ValueAnalyst, just let it roll off you like water off a duck’s @$$

 

[Singuy]

$20 billion capital raise? Elon has said Tesla is self-sustainable.

I believe most long term bulls want Tesla to raise as much capital as much as possible because they want this company to scale faster. It's a shame for Elon to on one hand having to prove profitability every two seconds, and on the other pestering him to hit 1 million cars/year by tomorrow. Bulls just want Elon to raise capital ASAP, forget showing profitability, and build 10 giga factories all at once if possible.

 

[SpaceCash]

I believe most long term bulls want Tesla to raise as much capital as much as possible because they want this company to scale faster. It's a shame for Elon to on hand having to prove profitability every two seconds, and on the other pestering him to hit 1 million cars/year by tomorrow. Bulls just want Elon to raise capital ASAP, forget showing profitability, and build 10 giga factories all at once if possible.

Yeah bit of a catch 22. I don't care about profitability at all as far as the company is concerned. Explosive growth cos run this way, it's fine. However for the broader market schmucks it's necessary for the SP to boom

 

[ggies07]

I believe most long term bulls want Tesla to raise as much capital as much as possible because they want this company to scale faster. It's a shame for Elon to on hand having to prove profitability every two seconds, and on the other pestering him to hit 1 million cars/year by tomorrow. Bulls just want Elon to raise capital ASAP, forget showing profitability, and build 10 giga factories all at once if possible.

Humanity doesn't have a choice anymore....we either scale fast in all areas or suffer.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Come on already while I still have some color in my hair...

View attachment 344948

Note the glazed eyes and small hands. Does this lemur tweet at all hours of the night?

 

[Unpilot]

Humanity doesn't have a choice anymore....we either scale fast in all areas or suffer.

Yeah this....sometimes we cant see the forest for the trees. If we dont go fast it wont really matter.

 

[AndyH]

I believe most long term bulls want Tesla to raise as much capital as much as possible because they want this company to scale faster. It's a shame for Elon to on hand having to prove profitability every two seconds, and on the other pestering him to hit 1 million cars/year by tomorrow. Bulls just want Elon to raise capital ASAP, forget showing profitability, and build 10 giga factories all at once if possible.

Yes! Throwing money at things is often not productive but Tesla is in a position now that only needs scaling. They have already completed r&d needed for massproducing batteries and vehicles.

After 2-3 profitable quarters they should bring it to a shareholder vote. Does everyone want us to really bring the pain to the auto industry? Well give us the money and we'll do it.