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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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So here is there 10/2/2017 deliveries report statement:

Q3 production totaled 25,336 vehicles, with 260 of them being Model 3. Model 3 production was less than anticipated due to production bottlenecks. Although the vast majority of manufacturing subsystems at both our California car plant and our Nevada Gigafactory are able to operate at high rate, a handful have taken longer to activate than expected.

It is important to emphasize that there are no fundamental issues with the Model 3 production or supply chain. We understand what needs to be fixed and we are confident of addressing the manufacturing bottleneck issues in the near-term.
and the same Q press release:

To date, our primary production constraint has been in the battery module assembly line at Gigafactory 1, where cells are packaged into modules. Four modules are packaged into an aluminum case to form a Model 3 battery pack. The combined complexity of module design and its automated manufacturing process has taken this line longer to ramp than expected. The biggest challenge is that the first two zones of a four zone process, key elements of which were done by manufacturing systems suppliers, had to be taken over and significantly redesigned by Tesla. We have redirected our best engineering talent to fine-tune the automated processes and related robotic programming, and we are confident that throughput will increase substantially in upcoming weeks and ultimately be capable of production rates significantly greater than the original specification.

While we continue to make significant progress each week in fixing Model 3 bottlenecks, the nature of manufacturing challenges during a ramp such as this makes it difficult to predict exactly how long it will take for all bottlenecks to be cleared or when new ones will appear. Based on what we know now, we currently expect to achieve a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by late Q1 2018, recognizing that our production growth rate is like a stepped exponential, so there can be large forward jumps from one week to the next. We will provide an update when we announce Q4 production and delivery numbers in the first few days of January. With respect to the timing for producing 10,000 units per week, it has always been our intention to implement that capacity addition after we have achieved a 5,000 per week run rate. That will enable us to make the next generation of automation even better while making our capex spend significantly more efficient.
Neither of which seem unreasonably stated. What is the actual worst statement in regard to possible infraction? If the 20k in December was only referenced back in June/July and then dropped that seems perfectly reasonable to me.

Agreed. Everything is laid out contingent to fixing the main bottleneck. You have to prove that they knew they didn't know how to fix the bottle neck AND that the fix they didn't know how to do they knew would take a long time lol. It's even hard to write that logic. And anyone who programs knows how hard it is to estimate time for troubleshooting. Sometimes you find the wrong bracket quickly, sometimes it takes a week lol. How that justifies DOJ involvement I don't understand.
 
Out of curiosity what exactly is the complaint text?
I don't remember exactly; I should've done a screenshot. I complained that the WSJ mislead investors and harmed stock price while it was in an uptrend by releasing false information.
... and i asked them to make an example of the WSJ as this thing happens often.
 
Agreed. Everything is laid out contingent to fixing the main bottleneck. You have to prove that the knew they didn't know how to fix the bottle neck AND that the fix they didn't know how to do they knew would take a long time lol. It's even hard to writ that logic. And anyone who programs knows how hard it is to estimate time for troubleshooting. Sometimes you find the wrong bracket quickly, sometimes it takes a week lol. How that justifies DOJ involvement I don't understand.

Yeah it's puzzling that they would still be investing resources into it without some kind of reasonable angle. I'm not gonna assume I know what that angle is until I see something at least plausible that I can argue against.

Also, maybe if the case is that they mislead the public we can deliver some statements from helpful short sellers that promised it was impossible to ramp that fast. I mean.. how would they know that if the company had covered it all up? :p
 
Tesla Delivers A Breakthrough Quarter, What To Expect Next

Apologies if this has already been posted.

Has a nice conclusion about not going wobbly at this point.
Apple's primary moat is the app ecosystem. Users attract developers attract users attract developers. It's a network effect. It's hard for a third mobile OS to break into the market for the same reason it's hard for a new social network to compete with Facebook or Twitter.

Apples moat is design, ease of use and expectations of privacy. The app environment is a city that has grown outside the moat. Competition can’t attack the moat, because off the development community surrounding the moat.
With some luck Tesla will build a secondary community outside of the core moat. I’d say Tesla has several moats, design, safety, efficiency, super chargers, brand, autopilot giga factories are a series of moats that VW is talking about attacking, but no one has an exestiantial plan. Secondary protection is speed of innovation, which is like lowering the ground that your competition stands on as it approaches the moats. The dev community around Tesla for now is us, crazy people who’ve been following Tesla and Elon, perhaps starting with spacex, or passion about EV’s or just early adopters who love the next new thing. I think the next moat or innovation will be the new Tesla chip and neural net, which will be the foundation of the Tesla network and possibly an information network. Need a parking spot, the network will route you to the closest open spot. The business opportunities of the neural network have barely been scratched. Tesla driving network is just the first obvious opportunity.

Happy weekend and congrats longs

Ps: anyone interested in a class action suit against WSJ? Today’s fake news is obvious plant.

I’m totally serious. We’ve got a few 100 thousand shares here. A small settlement with a cease and desist order is all I ask.
 
In 2017 I predicted here on TMC that Tesla would build 250,000 cars in 2018, and a half million in 2019. I was considered wildly pesimistic at only 250K.

2024 will be Shanghai's first or second full year at full production. I'm guessing that Fremont will max out at 600K unless demand is "off the hook" and Tesla wants to throw money at increasing to 700K.

Sparks is the wild card, but is unlikely to exceed 250K by 2024. So I end up in a 2024 range of a million-ish.

Unfortunately it takes actual factories to build cars. Factories take time and money which Tesla has not spent.

Beyond 2025 anything could happen.

Why are you predicting first year of “full production” at Shanghai in 2024? They are already starting to construct the factory and limited production happens in 2019.

In what universe does it take Tesla 5 years to finish building the Shanghai plant?

I actually expect Tesla to have at least 2 new factories running by 2024 - probably 3 (Shanghai, Europe, & one additional US location)
 
Tesla now up YTD, vs. other automakers (down heavily)
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1. Sometimes people panic, especially if they have a lot of money concentrated into one stock. How did you feel when TSLA went to $250 a few times this year, below 200-day moving average and all the news were terribly negative?

2. Sometimes people can't hold onto winners. When they finally see their holdings bounce back to break even or slightly positive, they quickly sell for tiny profit. That is the wrong approach; I made that mistake with other stocks when I was new to investment.

For my first point, don't panic during pullbacks. Tesla's real downside is very limited. If you don't use lots of margin, don't worry about pullbacks. You can sit through them or buy more shares at a low price using new cash.

For my second point, if you happen to be the type who can't hold onto winners, my suggestion is to hold onto the stock until it gets close to $500 or $600; I think those levels are coming for TSLA. Then you can slowly reduce your shares, to a point where most of your original investment is back in the bank account, but keep your profits invested in TSLA. Hold onto the free shares and see if they can run to $8000. You can sell a few more shares along the way, but hold onto most of the free shares for at least 10 years. $8000 is not 100% sure, but I think the possibility is pretty high.

Personally, I plan to hold all of my shares until 2030~2035.
 
I would welcome such an ad not so much to stoke demand as an opportunity to showcase Tesla’s mission, goals and accomplishments. To shape and control their own narrative in front of a very large audience around the world.
You need to know only Americans watch super bowl, well, there are others, but mainly Americans.
A better way of doing it could be make a high quality video and upload to YouTube on Super Bowls day, people all around the globe watch Super bowl ad compilations, make some deal with YouTube and make sure it shows up when people search related keywords.
 
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Hmm I could be mistaken given the conversation spanned lots, could be mixing up robot makers, programmers and the like. I'll edit it to be more vague.
I doubt Kuka themselves would design and build a line - more likely the contractor for the line was using Kuka bots. So it's not unlikely Kuka bots were involved, but Kuka would have zero blame.
 
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Larry Ellison as Tesla chairman of the board?
He's definitely a friend and probably a believer in the mission. And I don't think he'd let Elon push him around too much, he's been running a successful business for far too long to be a pushover, so hopefully he'd pass the "independent" test. Though he does likely have large TSLA holdings, I don't think that's a problem since that just means he's going to be more in favor of the company, not the man?
 
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