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Just got the final payment message and text for delivery schedule Monday or Tuesday! Vancouver red/white/18

I ordered first week November, red/white so I was assuming I'll be later than a lot. I would expect Vancouver to get their vins before California. I may get my vin before ya but we'll get our cars at basically the same time haha

Nothing to do with how much they care. It's end of the quarter so to maximize deliveries west coast and California get the cars last. I'm in Vancouver with a dec 14-31 estimate which is expected.

Same thing happened to me with my date disappearing. I asked my advisor and she just gave me the vague yeah we don't have the ability to see a detailed timeline but still looks like the same dec 14-31 it said before. Total guess but I wonder if they are removing dates to not commit to anything...

Mine dropped its date today too, it said dec 14-31 before. Red/white SR+ Vancouver 11/08 order.

Look at all those "cranes" at work. :P

Can't remember where I read it but it talked about there being a bit of room in the 100 packs that they could fit in the 2170s extra 5mm. But that aside I agree it would be hard to go up so I would just go down. You can literally drop the pack out of the bottom so adding 5mm where the batteries...

If you look at the youtube vidoes that have the hacked AP output over-laid onto AP camera recordings it already detects drive-able area in green. This is detecting where the road ends at curbs, cones, drop offs, grass edge, what ever. So I think even the current version driving around now would...

After a wild ride with TSLA options in 2018 I told myself I'd just stick to stock for a while. Aaand then we have good P&D news and a drop in price and I couldn't help myself, took a small position in march 350 calls. I'm a weak man...hopefully it pays off. haha

Sure, if it ended there. The problem is with the retaliatory tariffs that always come in response. At a time when Tesla is about to ship a bunch of model 3s to Europe. That would be annoying to say the least.

I'd imagine so, might move positive just having the question answered with a predictable path forward seeing she is an existing director. Two new independent directors is the next question.

Fair enough. The random news and my preconceived notion that they would do Europe and then China once they had some assembly got the better of my hope.

I mean, I guess. They have been planning this for some time so who knows what they have prepped but for what ever reason I assumed they would put off China until they had at least partial assembly there. While I do think most likely you are correct, I wouldn't rule out some assembly being done...

Sooo uhh... BREAKING: Tesla Model 3 Deliveries In China Estimated For March 2019 | CleanTechnica That's a lot more than a bit quicker than I was thinking. Tent Secured? :P Hope TSLA pops tomorrow on this news.

....I'l have what he's having.

The NN prophet has spoken. haha, joking aside totally agree. Hope to see the coast to coast as a solid proof of concept in 2019. Even once it's rolled out to customers will definitely be a US thing first then North America and later Europe. Every time I visit Europe and see the streets in cities...

Maybe if they put a little more money into R&D instead of advertising... lol

Sure it's technically correct for a small sub section of the article but for the average SA subscriber it reads, "hey based on the Q3 numbers Teslas only worth 20 billion!!!!" OMFG short that *suuggaaaar* #bearlife #TSLAQ #SpiegelDaddy... haha ok I've had my fun. Tittle could have been "Based...

At risk of being that guy, to quote myself from only a few days back: The game is more fun when you're winning. :p edit: Jinxed it.

With the closing price of 330.90, $20 mil of shares is 60,441 shares. With outstanding shares at 170.59 million that's 0.035% or about 12 cents. You could use float but Elon will sit on these anyways. Soooo really, it's meaningless. But $20 mil free cash isn't anything to shake a finger at. And...

Agreed. Everything is laid out contingent to fixing the main bottleneck. You have to prove that they knew they didn't know how to fix the bottle neck AND that the fix they didn't know how to do they knew would take a long time lol. It's even hard to write that logic. And anyone who programs...

Alright, I don't have exact dates of conversations and realizations but the story I heard... The contractor for the module line for months was "we almost got this it's fine just a bit more time" which is typical from a failing contractor. It wasn't until Elon being his micro manage self went...

Ahh interesting. I couldn't remember what was originally stated. Then that still follows with volume production in 2020. Better way to state it really as it's harder to *sugar* on Elon if they are only producing in the hundreds per week in 2019.

No worries, my grammer not good times at. You do have me pausing at the thought of paint shop and stamping. Though you still wouldn't see that stuff going in for a while. China will be it's own thing with local banks instead of eating much free cash from operations. Dunno, hard to say.

I agree they could push it out. But to your point on people going "ahh I'll wait for the Model Y instead of getting a Model 3" I think that's why they might start production sooner than we think once they unveil it. And no I'm saying they would make the Y entirely in GF1 not Freemont.

I thought you were evening arguing the point Tesla has some large NNs in the pipeline but I see you knew that. Honestly, I disagree with half of what you said there and half agree so I can't really be bothered haha. Along with the fact neither of us know what Tesla is actually doing and all we...

You're from the bay area but don't follow in detail the latest V9 software neural network talk? While the new NNs running are impressive the real news is the one running in the background that was discovered by one of the guys on TMC (forget his name) To paraphrase it looks to be the largest...

I'm saying if volume production by 2020 has to be GF1. Any other guesses?

I forget when we were expecting Model Y exactly but it has been internally approved for production prototype (forget his actual words) and we are still 5 months out from March Model Y unveiling. Elon also said we won't be seeing VOLUME production until 2020 which I found curious instead of just...

Excuse me what.... Model 3’s gross margin “should grow significantly” to approximately 15 percent in the third quarter and 20 percent in fourth quarter, thanks to “continued reduction in manufacturing costs and to some extent an improving mix.” From here on out, CEO Elon said during [Q2] call...

It's a blood bath out there today. Imagine being a Tesla short, seeing the whole board red, and Tesla still green. hah

Caterpillar is heavily into mining as well as construction. Battery tech is a new and soon to be big thing in underground mining. One of your biggest costs for underground mines is the ventilation system. As a rule of thumb you need 1m^3/min of air for each person underground while you need...

He already did, oct 12 he tweeted "Glad you're safe."

I remember one useful thing bum77 said is this is the time of year car carriers are at a premium because of new year models coming out from other manufacturers. So Tesla could anticipate this as much as they wanted but most likely other manufacturers have yearly deals around this time of year...

I was in Vancouver the other week and on a 30 minute drive to downtown I saw 4 Model 3s and then walking downtown a grey M3P drove by. They are certainly getting a few of them up there.

You've never had a dumb boss that asks you to do things even though the answer is obvious? Most likely because someone wants to look good to someone else or save face? This is worse in the government than private sector due to more politics involved.

We should get together for a viewing party. Take a drink every time Elon says something that will be used as FUD. Could be a fun night.:P

Hah, I was the guy with the 3 page checklist while my brother and his wife did the paperwork. Good excuse for me to climb all over and play with his brand new 3. :D Wouldn't they easily just say it is only valid if you have a lease through Tesla, otherwise it's just an outright sale as far as...

Anecdotal but my brothers 3 paint issue was a small chip in the driver door frame the delivery specialist caught and told us about. Listed it on the paperwork and all but after Tesla said they could have the area re-sprayed and all we (as he talked to me about it) decided it wasn't worth it for...

I think we are on the same page on this anyways. To concentrate deliveries in CA they'd have to do something along these lines I would guess. Perhaps it would be easier to pull off then I think it is. But if you feel so strongly about it I'll agree with you. How much should we raise our delivery...

The only reason I am discounting that in a few of my posts is they are having enough problems pushing through deliveries spread out over the whole USA so to concentrate them on CA centers for 2-3 weeks...well, I'd hate to be the Tesla employees working there if they do. But who knows, they could...

I agree with your numbers, I was betting a low range to make a point about still being profitable at those numbers. Having been often too optimistic I was perhaps erring overly on the side of caution. But hey, maybe I'm still being too optimistic on production levels for profitability.

On market action ish...at this level I'd like to add to my position a bit but part of me is worried Elon might...pull an Elon on Joe Rogan Thursday evening. Thoughts?

haha aaalright bud, fair enough. Saved this post and I hope I can quote it back to you after Q3 results...but honestly, either way I'll most likely forget. :P

How can you be so confident on how many they must deliver to be profitable while we guess by large percentages what the ASP will be and see random articles that they have reduced the labour by 30% per vehicle... At the end of the day neither of us know if 51k delivered (which I agree is a good...

I don't presume to read everything but I can't imagine why anyone would think that there would be near zero in transit ever with increasing production...that's just poor modeling. My bet would be 48-50k delivered for the quarter (more if they do something like only west coast for the last few...

Really? Unless they plan to blitz Cali deliveries the last 3 weeks of the quarter that would be nearly impossible (given a constant ramping in production) and a dumb thing to say...

I'm all for the silly and tech stuff but mentioning pedo guy again, really?!?

God dammit Elon get your ass off twitter. Someone grab his phone. Elon Musk on Twitter

Well yes but that's partially because the UAE and the Saudi's have some of the best american anti-missile tech money can buy. The Houthis have launched scud missiles supplied by Iran at both countries population centers but they have mostly been shot down. So it's not for lack of trying that the...