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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I like the new musk so much better than the musk from 2 months ago. Engaging his customers over their product instead of his shareholders/shorts over their position. It’s the product baby and I can’t understand why he let that focus slip away for a quarter.

Anyway. It’s irrelevant how much the performance refund is going to cost. Small beans compared to market good will. Lemur is the perfect step up in demand and step down in price. I am sure there are a few more to follow.

Really looking forward now to the 10q to understand how Tesla managed an incredible quarter.
 
Weekend is boring eh?
Here, yes. Everywhere else? God no! GAB just made me sweat. I haven't been THAT alive just TYPING and READING for ages, probably never: full on raw onslaught from the dark forces of evil with no baby-protections like I got used to on Twitter, with counterforces of raw goodness also of the likes I haven't seen on Twitter either. It is nice to see the smugness gone!
 
Actually, the thesis is quite similar to Tesla. Anyone else *could* theoretically produce a cloud product as good as Amazon which was plug-compatible... but nobody else *is* doing so (nor will they any time soon). Just like anyone else *could* theoretically produce electric cars as good as Tesla with a similar Supercharger network etc... but they *aren't*.

Full disclosure: I'm also invested in Amazon, and my investment thesis is based on AWS taking over the world.
Ahh, but the last time I heard anyone say that, it was Linus Torvalds on the LKML or an early tarball README, when he said the goal of Linux is to Take Over the World, and how did that end up?
 
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I am a smart dude, like easily top 1%, and my guess is he's somewhere between 25-32. He's above average by far but he's wrong consistently in ways that people with more experience would detect. I have no doubt he's a < 32 age high IQ dude with little actual life experience who gets a crazy amount of *sugar* wrong. None of this is to put him down. He's better than most you will read anywhere by far.

That’s amazing divination to read so much about someone just through posts!

Some people here in TMC think I maxed out with a high school degree and don’t even own a Tesla.

So I am enthralled conversing with a super genius.

Was there a certification for top 1%? Are you a part of any of the high iq societies?

By 1% is that just IQ or EQ or what measures?

Lastly, how do you recognize other 1%ers? Like game recognizing game.

Maybe we should have you start a AMA thread so can get your insight on various topics?
 
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I'm not sure whom some of you are talking to here. Seems to be some ghost on my ignore list. Seriously, life is better when you make use of that list. Some people aren't worth the neuronal processing.
In retrospect, I wish forum software was smart enough that when you ignore someone, it can also parse and remove all replies to the person being ignored too.
 
One of the ways you can beat the market is if you find a company where GAAP differs radically from accurate business-decision accounting, and you do the analysis, and everyone else is blindly assuming that GAAP reflects reality. Tesla's actually a good example of this, but there are plenty of others.

So much this.

Almost all of 2018's hyperventilation about Tesla's future can be explained by GAAP distortions over an exponential ramp-up process - which gave the bear thesis a false air of authenticity.

Now the Q3 ER exposed the short thesis for the affinity fraud it always was.

Stunned silence from many Wall Street analysts who should have known better.
 
This is not the right calculation. I'm not defending Fred, but the correct comparison is between free Supercharging and the cost of paid Supercharging. Most people will charge their Teslas at home (and save lots of money on gas by doing so, yes).

If you take very few road trips, the free Supercharging is worth next to nothing. If you take a lot of road trips, then it's worth a lot. I take maybe 1 Supercharger trip per year; over 5 years, free supercharging has probably been worth about $700 to me.

Well I do not do any charging at home and do most of my charging with SC. If you read my post then you certainly will realize I talk about my situation here in Germany and do not talk about any other situation out there in the world. In fact I said others will have a very different calculation.

So why disagree if the situation and scenario applies to me as pointed out?

With regards to comparison, well I had a gas car before so in my situation its a comparison between gas costs and free supercharger. Many people in Europe do live in apartments, their decision to buy an EV depends in part on the SC network to use as other available charging points are rare.

I can only assume you took my mail and used it for a different country and people and costs while I said it only applies here and with me. Should not do that as it just creates confusion and misunderstanding.

No offense but my first principle is: read posts carefully better twice and never reply without a check if you may put something in a post that is not in there.

Again, no dispute about how it may be in the US or elsewhere.
 
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Bloody hell, it's an almighty effort to wade through this thread, I see a couple of prolific new posters that maybe warrant an ignore...

Is Donn Bum still around, BTW?

Another short seller is out:
View attachment 346911

I bet the smart ones are all out, or making their way.

Zero, as it's only for the original owner.

Well that's not entirely true - I took delivery of my current car mid September 2017 and my unlimited supercharging transfers to the next owner.

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    11h11 hours ago
    Didn’t you get free Supercharging for life? Current buyers don’t get that.

    69 replies21 retweets788 likes


  2. Verified account
    11h11 hours ago
    That’s not worth $5K. I opted for my Performance without PUP but I feel bad for anyone who paid. That sucks.
Not worth $5k? Quick math about the value of free SupperCharger here in Germany.

Using actual gas payment receipt in front of me. Caution this calculation will be different for other Europeans with different prices and gas consumption cars. Located in Germany and use the most expensive Gas Premium Super so far. Supposed to have more range and cleaner... for the once who still believe them....

For 650 km (400 mi) I paid 81€ (92$) last week. Yes, Europe is more expensive than NA and my car was ( I just sold it) not the most efficient.

Tesla aims for 1m miles or 1.6m km for the engine and guarantees unlimited battery for the high end S.

Using the above cost per gas this would mean that in the (unlikely) case you use only SC for the full distance of 1 m mile costs of: €124 k ($ 128k) I had to make the calculation trice because I could not believe my eyes. If you turn it around you can calculate after 40k m you got your €5k back and after that you make money. .

So costs for life long SC free of charge is $ 5k and in that scenario I get a return of +25 times that amount. In fact with that savings alone I can buy myself 1 or two new Teslas. Even if you calculate cheaper gas prices and a car with lower consumption its still a crazy good deal.

Of course most people will not run the car 1 m miles but make the calculation with 500 k miles or less and its still a steal. Also it will keep the resales value high.

Feel good that I sold my car waiting for the 3. Happy to pay €5k for free SC if the allow me to. Would do it if it would be more as well.

P.S. no doubt the calculation is different in the US but should be still a good deal in most cases.

Apologie, Alex, but gave you a "disagree" for this, I know, shocking! Why, because you've based your calculation on exclusive supercharging, which isn't something that we do, only for road-trips.

I agree with you. Tesla will issue $20M shares, Elon will buy these shares at market price. I think it's a symbolic gesture so that Tesla's cash position is not negatively impacted by this episode. Tesla's float will be negatively impacted by 0.04%. I think in the end, this episode will help all long term investors by a lot.

What I meant in my original post is that in addition to the $20M purchase, Elon probably will buy more shares from the open market. If I were him, I would buy a lot more shares from the open market.

I would love it if Elon were to buy $20m on the open market too, it's the moment, I think!

You are amazeballs! You make 007 style super bull estimates in a scientific yet succinct manner whilst building a Neroden style aura around you. Impressed I am.
Your statements have and will continue to have a tangible impact on SP along with many others here. Please keep saving the world so that I can stop making these corny lines..

I know, I just can't stop myself from ruining my almost profound statements with a silly line at the end. I promise to stop them once I receive exoneration (approx SP of $450).

You're so Fuller praise...*

Indeed I see you are right. I found this about the Sept free offer:

"New Model S, Model X, and Model 3 Performance buyers still have a chance to get free unlimited Supercharging for the lifetime of their ownership by ordering before the end of the day"
Can we go back to slagging the WSJ now? ;)

See above, I have it for the life of the vehicle

TA is not magic and it won’t predict everything, but it’s an extremely powerful tool if you know how and when to use it.

I have always thought that technical analysis was BS, but experience has completely changed my mind.
You will find the answer to your questions in any serious book about trading.
Just look at option sniper on Twitter. He has an unbelievable success rate using pure TA.

After having around this thread for nearly three years, I've not seen a single prediction based on TA come to fruition.

Yes, exactly. It’s just spitballing. Like, back of the envelope math.

I don’t like that you were dinged for being “too pessimistic” in a scenario... where I imagine Tesla still increases its valuation since you said it’s still a great case? I think it’s good to consider all kinds of scenarios, from worst case (bankruptcy) to bad case to meh case to good case to best case. Considering all the possible outcomes doesn’t make you (gasp) a traitor.

It’s a bit disconcerting when I see people posting about buying more shares than they can afford. And then attacking anyone who thinks Tesla will be worth less than $17 trillion. It reminds me too much of the crypto community. Where people mortgage their houses to buy Bitcoin and then send death threats over max block size. Or where even among enthusiasts and people who bet a lot of money, there is very little discussion or understanding of the technology and almost zero discussion of valuation modelling. I’ve talked to someone who had most of their net worth in crypto (which was far more than my net worth) and didn’t know what delegated proof of stake is. The online crypto communities are mostly just people obsessively watching the price and hyping each other up. Hoddddddllllllllllll....!

Ethereum has a market value of $20 billion and, when I was researching it, I couldn’t find a single valuation model on the Internet. I searched pretty extensively and asked around. It’s crazy that something could be valued at $20 billion and apparently no one is talking about how much it’s worth. I dived pretty deep into the topic and then I realized with shock that the value of 1 Ether could end up being inversely correlated with the success of the Ethereum platform, which is a hell of a realization. If you value Ether like a currency rather than like equity in a company, the result totally flips. When I tried to discuss this idea online, the reaction was mostly dismissive and hostile, as (unfortunately) you’d expect. I could be totally wrong, and I’m still holding about 30% of the Ether I bought in case I am (it’s a very small amount), but I was a little shook by that experience. It feels like scary irrational exuberance. Ether holders might make lambo money, but if they do, it will be by luck. Because it seems like no one is trying to figure out how to even value it.

So, my point being, money and the feeling that you’re part of a righteous cause can make people act in shocking ways. You can be right that Ethereum will be an incredibly disruptive, world-changing technology and wrong that the value of Ether will increase over time. You should at least check, and be open to the idea that you’re wrong. With Ethereum I had that moment of, “oh my god, my whole thesis is wrong.” With Tesla, I want to explore any counterargument I find. If I’m wrong, I want to know as soon as possible, so I can sell while I’m up or at least minimize my losses.

The idea that if you’re part of the Tesla tribe you have to cheer all ideas about Tesla being a multi-trillion dollar enterprise and boo all ideas about Tesla being potentially overvalued... that’s unhealthy. That’s irrational exuberance.

We should thank the skeptics because they’ll either a) show us our error, saving us money or b) increase our alpha.

You want to buy some Etherium? well its your lucky day as I heard Elon was giving some away, I just need to find the link...

Once the SC charge rate drops below that of the onboard charger, you're taking up space and wasting time. And you're not really supercharging either, your more like trickle charging.

Busy SC stations need a few wall chargers (like Tejon Ranch) for those 100% cases, but even then it should be 95%. 100% buys you very little and costs a lot of time vs 95% but whatevers if no one is waiting in the queue.

But when the electronic queue says that some one is waiting to supercharge, and your pulling 7 KW it's time to move the car and give up the spot. Plug into the wall charger if you must have 100%.

I usually stop supercharging once it drops below 100kWh, unless I've a particularly long stint ahead.

That's insane. I gave up on trying to keep up w/ the thread. It moves too fast.

Indeed, you go for a pee and another page appears. However, I do read, or at least scan every post - except that cosmicbloke who's just turned up, TL:DR

Can you imagine how bad it would have looked if he had told the guy to pound sand....now that would have been a PR nightmare.

Personally I would love it if Elon had done this.

53 mins in - you Americans crack me up - just realising that your enormous pick-ups may lack elegance in their use of space. This baby is how we roll in the uk when we want to take our cucumber sandwiches to the beach and do a bit of impromptu off roading:
packshot_colorpicker_JUKE_326_medium.png.ximg.m_12_h.smart.png

Ah, the Nissan Puke, as I like to call it. The 25th ugliest car of all time, the first 24 all being Renaults...

h


I got a "Funny" this morning from a post I made a month ago.

The on topic post are largely irrelevant that far back.

Well it's a bloody good job that most posts are OT then!

Google services including especially the app store is not open source, cost money, and it is exactly modeled after Apple app store. Amazon and Samsung wanted to start their own app store, both fell flat.

Get your fact straight.

The main competitor to watch for is LG. Where is their battery, how fast are they getting better & cheaper ?

Once the battery is competitive, it won't be difficult for other OEMs to manufacture cars that are somewhat competitive. Afterall that is their core competency.

In the US, others are likely to be at a disadvantage because of charging network. In EU & Japan (I guess China too), because of public sector charger investments, Tesla may not have much of an edge.

I doubt they'll become that competitive, because aside the OEM's wanting to turn a profit, LG will want to turn a profit too, which adds an extra layer of margin on top. Plus they need scale to get the cost down, which I don't see happening too soon.

As for European charing networks - yes there are many public charging points available, but they're all owned by a variety of operators, for which you need an account and the appropriate RFID card. There's some effort to join networks together, but it's still very painful. On top of that, many of them are not well maintained or are often in public car-parks and get regularly ICE'd.
 
Being a fan or supporter of a company doesn’t mean supporting 100% of its actions 100% of the time, or only saying 100% positive things about it 100% of the time.

CleanTechnica is like Electrek but seemingly even more extreme. It recently published an honest-to-God conspiracy theory attributing negative Tesla articles to a secret plot (based on as little evidence as any other conspiracy theory). I have really enjoyed some of CleanTechnica’s technical articles and I respected what they were doing, but for me it really jumped the shark with the conspiracy theory.


With respect to conspiracy theories, please be aware of an entity “Fueling U.S. Forward,” the group is a front, operated by trusted Koch operatives Charles Drevna and James Mahoney, and funded by Koch Industries money. Additionally, the organization solicits funds from like minded interests and recently Exxon/Mobil has been identified as yet another of those interests funding this front group.

The goal of this front group is to do whatever it takes to discredit renewable energy and EV adoption. It uses political lobbying, misleading media and “other” techniques.

So, it is hardly a “conspiracy theory” to say there is not dark money specifically aimed at Tesla specifically and renewables and Ev’s In general.

Do a bit of due diligence on this front group, it will open your eyes wide.

Fire Away!
 
Debt Picture from 10-Q in Q2.
View attachment 347683
I really would like to see 4 profitable quarters before they plow ahead with big investments for the Model Y, Semi, Pickup and the $25k ICE destroyer. It's pretty amazing that ICE competitors let them pretty much have the market to themselves since 2012. I don't see any meaningful competitive response till 2020 or 2021. Typically in business at best one gets a two or three year lead with a new major product offering. The only other new product offering I can think of that had this kind of lead was Amazon AWS. It was 7-8 years before Microsoft, Google and others had a competitive response to AWS. At that time AWS was so far ahead it's very difficult to catch up even with the deep pockets and resources of MSFT and GOOG. Tesla looks to be following the same path to take 50-60% of the EV market over the long hall.

I don’t think they can afford to hold back on Y at all. The small SUV/crossover market closes the coffin whilst the pick-up would be the nails. Getting to “beancounter aware” this early in the game would be a mistake for the mission at this point IMHO.

Fire Away!
 
Being a fan or supporter of a company doesn’t mean supporting 100% of its actions 100% of the time, or only saying 100% positive things about it 100% of the time.

I’m surprised Electrek is getting so much criticism because it’s a Tesla fan/investor site that virtually never questions or criticizes anything Tesla says or does. Electrek acts like it’s Tesla PR. And Fred has a big conflict of interest because he owns TSLA and gets referral prizes like a free 2020 Roadster. So, Electrek is now getting flak for publishing one critical thing?

CleanTechnica is like Electrek but seemingly even more extreme. It recently published an honest-to-God conspiracy theory attributing negative Tesla articles to a secret plot (based on as little evidence as any other conspiracy theory). I have really enjoyed some of CleanTechnica’s technical articles and I respected what they were doing, but for me it really jumped the shark with the conspiracy theory.

Maybe this is the corrupting influence of money... When you have a lot of money invested in a stock, and you obsessively watch the stock price day by day, hour by hour, minute by minute... You become obsessed with making money and you get angry at anyone you perceive as getting in the way of you making money.

Throw in some pseudoscience like technical trading, and that’s just more fuel for the fire.

Um I don’t recall the article in question.

But it is 100% verifiable that oil and gas are promoting anti-Tesla on social media.

It is not a “conspiracy theory” when anti Tesla ads on social media say “promoted by Exxon Mobile.”

It’s simultaneously not a “conspiracy theory” against EVs in general when you consider the actions of nationwide dealerships hiding, lying about, or not carrying their brands EVs.



Dealer tactics stall electric car sales

It’s common sense; dealerships business model requires service revenue at high margin, and EVs require much less service. It isn’t a conspiracy, it’s businesses protecting themselves as they should. If I owned a business and a threat to it existed I would resist, wouldn’t you?

Both of these groups; oil and gas, and dealerships in general, stand to lose tens of billions if EVs are rapidly adopted.

Here’s why: in the most conservative cases, 1 year of Tesla production at 7000 vehicles per week will cost regional oil and gas companies not one penny less than 1.7 billion dollars. That’s every year any ev maker puts out 7000 vehicles per week.

“Why is there fud?

If Tesla produces 7000 vehicles a week.

And we were to fill those 7000 vehicles full of gas - 15 gallons per vehicle to fill them up for the first fime.

We would need 105,000 gallons of gas every week - or roughly 11 full semi tanker loads - just to fill the cars for the first time. More than 1 tanker per day is eliminated from regional demand.

At $3 per gallon this would cost $315,000. Every week. Just to fill tanks for the first time.

Over 52 weeks of this level of production the cost to fill the cars for the first time is 16 million and would require over 600 semi truck loads of fuel.

Assuming conservatively, owners only keep these cars 3 years and only fill up each 10 days, In one year of production Tesla eliminates 108 trips to the gas station for the individual, and almost 40 million trips for a years worth of individuals.

Those 40 million times somebody isn’t putting 15 gallons of gas in their car at 3 dollars per gallon costs gas companies 1.7 billion dollars.

1.7 billion dollars worth of gas over three years eliminates the need for ~65,500 full semi trucks of gas.

Before Donald trump gave substantial cuts to oil and gas this amount was Exxon Mobiles annual profit.

And if gas is more than $3, average consumers fill up more than once per 10 days, Tesla owners stay electric longer than 3 years, or Tesla produces more than 7000 per week...well it’s all multiplicative. If gas doubles in cost then the amount removed from gas companies doubles. If Tesla then doubles production that new number doubles again.

And none of this can ever go back to the gas companies. No Tesla owner can decide to use gas in the car. It’s a permanent loss.

That’s why there is fud. It’s going to start a death spiral.

Because it isn’t just Tesla and it isn’t just a year of production.

-Ben Price, October 2018”

The death spiral are the hundred billion dollars of debt for thousands of oil rigs, refineries, transportation infrastructure, etc., which represent an enormous fixed cost on the industry. There is a tipping point for these organizations just as there is for Tesla. Tesla just swung to the good side of theirs, and oil and gas in the region will head down to their tipping point. Then the only business recourse is to increase prices which only helps EVs more.
 

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in all seriousness, what are we going to do about getting kicked in the ass constantly by the greedy corrupt pigs on Wall St, and theWSJ, CNBC, Bloomberg.
You got to be careful who you listen to. This is wrong.



And this is right.

I've been following Karpathy on Twitter and he is overly impressed with topics of optimization and it makes me nervous actually. The real bottleneck on FSD is if Tesla hires and relies on someone that doesn't actually know what he's doing because he might stonewall Elon even. As impressed as people are with Elon, he generally just repeats tropes from various tech subcultures that are 10+ years before him. Very little he says on Rogan etc is novel. The only difference between Elon and these people is Elon actually gets *sugar* done. And that's not a small difference.

Anyway that might be because that's all Karpathy happens to be allowed to post about.. I don't know. I think he posted another optimization related tweet today. This is almost never the bottleneck.

You have as a general stack:

Hardware
Perception
[localization]
Planning
Business Specification (this is where Neroden shines and it's the most important)
User Training

roughly, the hardware's impact stops early in the stack. The hard parts are planning and above.

personally i’m not too excited about any of this yet, either. i am optimistic, and do hope some good comes of it, of course.
even lex fridman is very cautious. he says we’re on the 3rd wave of AI since the 40s and 50s and the first two times it flopped. he even states that boston robotics robots are using “good old fashioned” AI, which is to say, they aren’t capable of any “creativity”

i’ll get excited about it if/when things start happening. EAP is impressive. other automakers have similar abilities. let’s see where it goes. i’m not ready to value tesla differently. on the other hand, i don’t think it should be valued less than waymo, uber(especially), GM(cruise).. from autonomy perspective. but i’m not ready to add multiples for something that may never happen.
i’m surprised you don’t add any value for Tesla Energy (i thought you mentioned this earlier, if not, apologies). this, to me, is currently more tangible than anything on the AI/Autonomy front.
 
After having around this thread for nearly three years, I've not seen a single prediction based on TA come to fruition.

Let’s put it to the test. SP has been trading sideways in a ‘flag’ pattern since going from 200 to 380 in 2017. If we break through the top of the flag at 380 we should make a similar movement up from the bottom of the flag to complete the pattern, according to the TA theory. That should get us to 430. From there on it’s uncharted territory.
 
Commodity maybe, but in that case be the main supplier of the commodity, have the best manufacturing technology and factories around the world making batteries. Sell the batteries to yourself at cost basis, to put in your own cars, sell them to competitors with margin. That way they'll have a very bad time trying to outcompete you when it comes to pricing on the cars. This is not a pipe dream. Tesla is already making more than 50% of all the LiIon batteries in the world!

From the recent call:

Correction: Tesla is making more than 50% of batteries for EV's.
 
Bloody hell, it's an almighty effort to wade through this thread, I see a couple of prolific new posters that maybe warrant an ignore...


Apologie, Alex, but gave you a "disagree" for this, I know, shocking! Why, because you've based your calculation on exclusive supercharging, which isn't something that we do, only for road-trips.

.

Thats fine but you may have overlooked two sentence:

"Quick math about the value of free SupperCharger here in Germany...."

You live in Brussels rights? So my calculation does not apply to you.

"Using the above cost per gas this would mean that in the (unlikely) case you use only SC for the full distance of 1 m mile"

You have a different usage for SC right? So my calculation does not apply to you.

My situation is obviously different than yours and every individual calculation will be. So everybody should make a calculation on its own to investigate the value of free SC. In fact even paid SC is a very good deal for me given the high gas costs in Germany. We all know what happens if we factor maintenance in while comparing a gas car and Tesla.

Disagrees are always welcome, they help all of us to understand better and clarify either wrong information or thought processes and come closer to the "truth" which is I believe our all intention to validate if our investment is a good one. Disagrees also help shorts and trolls to understand that a large majority has a different point of view or reasoning.

Without disagrees I would have left TMC a long time ago.
 
I think Tesla is in an excellent position for a share price between 370 to 420$, but there are two main things that need to play accordingly for us:

a) The macro's of the general market need to be positive, if the market continues to go down - I do not think we'll see over 350$.
b) There needs to be a pause of bad news regarding TESLA and all the old crap needs to get forgotten and we do need Elon to continue to shut his mouth.
 
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