TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mickificki]

 

[SpaceCash]

View attachment 351378

Is it not overwhelmingly obvious that TSLA is going to explode soon?

We are on the precipice of something historically interesting. Stock price ASIDE, Tesla's effect on the competition (for lack of a better word) has become bleedingly obvious. Shorts have no thesis. Ford now makes butthurt commercials highlighting what has-beens they are. Model 3 is sexier than any other car on the road and outselling every other car as well.

Amid a really crap couple of weeks for the market, TSLA is gaining rapidly. Q3 was yuuugely profitable when idiot aNaLyStS' consensus was for a LOSS (this still ain't priced in). The 2020 Roadster is gonna be able to fly and Elon will go down in history as a blunt smoking badass. And that's just what we can see right now.

Hold on 2 ur hats famo

 

[S3XY]

Larry Niven has already hashed out the real-world implications of teleportation: conversion of airports to mass-transit hubs, dealing with removing/replacing potential energy, etc. in a most entertaining way. I like how with a bit of initial “if this minor impossibility were solved,” after that point his stuff would actually work!

If you want your teleportation in cinematic form, check out The Prestige for

Spoiler

a humdinger of a Tesla Killer.

Right. We can dream of something that's currently impossible but I prefer to dream about something more tangible that is right around the corner. (Oh, and the Model Y.)

 

[EVNow]

Is it not overwhelmingly obvious that TSLA is going to explode soon?

People's ideas of what is "explode" and what is "soon" differ.

To me they would mean $420 by end of next week. That looks unlikely.

 

[SimplyThis]

Tesla sells 1k cars every day.
Let's assume that half of the buyers (who are able to spend 50 - 150k on a car) are investors.
And 50% of those investors are so enthousiastic about their new buy, they decide to add TSLA to their portfolio.
That makes 250 new TSLA buyers a day.
A meagre 50 shares each makes over 4.5 million shares a year.

Anybody?

 

[dmckinstry]

Actually, if teleportation ever became a reality, you wouldn't have to send water, you'd use it to create water. Essentially a teleportation device would be encoding an object, deconstructing it, then reconstructing in another location.

Right. We only (hah) have to figure out how to do direct matter to energy and energy to matter conversion.

 

[Unpilot]

Tesla sells 1k cars every day.
Let's assume that half of the buyers (who are able to spend 50 - 150k on a car) are investors.
And 50% of those investors are so enthousiastic about their new buy, they decide to add TSLA to their portfolio.
That makes 250 new TSLA buyers a day.
A meagre 50 shares each makes over 4.5 million shares a year.

Anybody?

Well that was how I got hooked. Bought the car then the stock...then more stock.
Then got hooked on TMC forums.

 

[SpaceCash]

People's ideas of what is "explode" and what is "soon" differ.

To me they would mean $420 by end of next week. That looks unlikely.

That's only a 20% move. That's not the explosion I'm talking about

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Right. We can dream of something that's currently impossible but I prefer to dream about something more tangible that is right around the corner. (Oh, and the Model Y.)

• If people follow my rabbit holes to enjoy some fiction, for that time period they won’t be posting off-topic here.
• Tunnel Diode. Niven’s leap is from that real, exploitable effect to an extrapolation of what humanity inevitably does with exploitable effects.

Not telling you how to dream, though. This is kind of Elon Hot Tub talk up in here.

 

[Richard007]

Tesla sells 1k cars every day.
Let's assume that half of the buyers (who are able to spend 50 - 150k on a car) are investors.
And 50% of those investors are so enthousiastic about their new buy, they decide to add TSLA to their portfolio.
That makes 250 new TSLA buyers a day.
A meagre 50 shares each makes over 4.5 million shares a year.

Anybody?

50 shares seem high - most people are getting about 20 shares. Still a great thing. Some are getting 100 shares with 401k money mostly.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Tesla sells 1k cars every day.
Let's assume that half of the buyers (who are able to spend 50 - 150k on a car) are investors.
And 50% of those investors are so enthousiastic about their new buy, they decide to add TSLA to their portfolio.
That makes 250 new TSLA buyers a day.
A meagre 50 shares each makes over 4.5 million shares a year.

Anybody?

I bought stock after getting my S. I bought more after the tweet drop. After buying the car I started reading this forum more, thats really what inspired me to invest.

 

[Starno]

I'll bite. Why are you expecting a recession? In my experience, recessions are triggered when the economy 'overheats'. This is a euphemism for economic activity that pushes the oil price to a very high level. This in turns makes everything expensive, and the first hair trigger brings it tumbling like a house of cards.

Immediately prior to the GFC, the oil price was $150 US per barrel. The trigger in that instance was people unable to afford repayments on sub prime mortgages.

The next heated economy will be driven by the cleantech revolution. It will REDUCE oil consumption. For the first time, the boom will not lead us to bust.

Mine is when interest rates are going to hit 3,5-4%.

Way too many companies are over leveraged and their customers are also dependent on credit to make the purchases. When credit is going to become too expensive, they will cease to buy. Companies will have less demand, won't be be able to invest, fire staff, .. recession.
------

But that's just my opinion.

 

[Reciprocity]

Model Y reveal is March 2019 iirc

Ides of March. So March 15th. Tentative date.

 

[MartinAustin]

(Oh, and the Model Y.)

THIS.

We are about to cross the 2yr anniversary of the $180 Speigel Bottom... December 2016. (Unfortunately for him the stock is now about twice what it was back then!!!)

From that point, TSLA climbed to $383 on June 2017... satiated by months of publicity about the reveal and huge reservation total for the Model 3.

(Sure, things got more complicated after that.)

But... for TSLA today... we could be on the cusp of a huge Model Y anticipation rally. Could easily push the stock through its current ATH and easily above $420.

The sheer scale of the anticipation for the Model Y will be staggering... much larger than that of the Model 3. Simply due to the simple fact that there was a customer base of perhaps 150,000 S+X at the time of the Model 3 reveal... most of which cost a lot of money and were owned by early adopters who aren't necessarily trusted by the mainstream.

However the Model Y reveal will see a Tesla fleet of over half a million cars, including the base Model 3 variant owned by people who used to own Civics and Corollas, and a lot more middle-class buyers will believe it is something worth looking at. Media will be hugely interested because they know putting "Model Y" in a headline will mean webclicks.

The initial reservation total could be easily over 500,000. ($500million cash in the bank for Tesla) I don't think it will go over a million initially... because people will know from the Model 3 rollout that their Y may not arrive for a long time.

 

[printf42]

https://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/institutional-portfolio/fmr-llc-12407?page=2
FMR unloaded half of their TSLA position in Q3, is this news or we already know?

 

[S3XY]

THIS.

We are about to cross the 2yr anniversary of the $180 Speigel Bottom... December 2016. (Unfortunately for him the stock is now about twice what it was back then!!!)

From that point, TSLA climbed to $383 on June 2017... satiated by months of publicity about the reveal and huge reservation total for the Model 3.

(Sure, things got more complicated after that.)

But... for TSLA today... we could be on the cusp of a huge Model Y anticipation rally. Could easily push the stock through its current ATH and easily above $420.

The sheer scale of the anticipation for the Model Y will be staggering... much larger than that of the Model 3. Simply due to the simple fact that there was a customer base of perhaps 150,000 S+X at the time of the Model 3 reveal... most of which cost a lot of money and were owned by early adopters who aren't necessarily trusted by the mainstream.

However the Model Y reveal will see a Tesla fleet of over half a million cars, including the base Model 3 variant owned by people who used to own Civics and Corollas, and a lot more middle-class buyers will believe it is something worth looking at. Media will be hugely interested because they know putting "Model Y" in a headline will mean webclicks.

The initial reservation total could be easily over 500,000. ($500million cash in the bank for Tesla) I don't think it will go over a million initially... because people will know from the Model 3 rollout that their Y may not arrive for a long time.

Based on the posters from the EU who've said they wished the Model 3 was a hatchback and that a smaller hatchback would sell like hotcakes there I would expect the Model Y reservations to approach a million before actual production begins. Small SUV's/CUV's are also very popular in the US these days. And by then the general public will be more aware of Tesla and even with the FUD still being thrown around will have a much more positive view of Tesla.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

See. I’m the opposite. I’d rather go with this.

HornBlasters - Don't Blow Your Temper, Blow Your Horns!

I wonder if I could tap into my air suspension?

Need a good laugh? I can watch these for hours.

That’s at least ten times more obnoxious than rolling coal.

 

[SpeedGoat]

Based on the posters from the EU who've said they wished the Model 3 was a hatchback and that a smaller hatchback would sell like hotcakes there I would expect the Model Y reservations to approach a million before actual production begins. Small SUV's/CUV's are also very popular in the US these days. And by then the general public will be more aware of Tesla and even with the FUD still being thrown around will have a much more positive view of Tesla.

I think we can expect to see the first real distress on the part of the BMW/Audi/Mercedes by the end of this year since they are the ones selling the vehicles most directly comparable to the M3. The US manufacturers will be fairly safe until the Model Y and truck hit. From that point on all bets are off...

 

[Fobble]

Based on the posters from the EU who've said they wished the Model 3 was a hatchback and that a smaller hatchback would sell like hotcakes there I would expect the Model Y reservations to approach a million before actual production begins. Small SUV's/CUV's are also very popular in the US these days. And by then the general public will be more aware of Tesla and even with the FUD still being thrown around will have a much more positive view of Tesla.

I am for one thought about moving from S to 3, but the trunk opening of the 3 is too limited. I will seriously look into the Model Y when detailed specs are available.

 

[Remus]

Unfortunately the very magic that works the wonder of evolution is also killing you slowly. Your DNA changes over time. Chance of cancer gets higher with age.

That's one way to live a lot longer...the other way is to just replace the worn out bits.
Essentially treat the body and mind as say a car. There is no reason a car can't run a very, very long time if you replace whatever wear's out.

We currently replace some parts (knee's hip's heart's) and current trends are to be able to replace more even down to the cellular level.
Nano bot's, stem cells who knows what's next. Great time to be alive!