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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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This was pretty much expected from the ultras: the deal is a soft BRExit in many aspects.

The question is whether the ultras want May out so bad that they want Labor in power (which would be the probable consequence) - the answer to that is "probably not".

So everything depends on the parlamentary vote.

The other, critical question is which way the Ulster Unionists will go. Despite being ultra-right-wing on nearly all issues, they definitely don't want a border of any sort with Ireland... and May's majority depends on them.


The Independent newspaper thinks May would lose a vote of no confidence on the DUP votes alone, and there are at least a few Tories ready to vote her down.

The question in my mind is, who's bottling up the process of bringing a no-confidence vote to the floor? Theoretically it's a privileged motion and May could be spilled right now, right?
 
The other, critical question is which way the Ulster Unionists will go. Despite being ultra-right-wing on nearly all issues, they definitely don't want a border of any sort with Ireland... and May's majority depends on them.
I think May has bigger fish to fry than DuP. Rees-Mogg has handed his letter in (no confidence). If May gets as far as having a vote, Labour MPs voting against their leader is probably her only trump (not the orange one) card.
 
How Elon Musk might make $920 million in Tesla debt go away - Los Angeles Times

The bond market is betting the strike price will be exceeded. The Tesla convertibles, which pay a slim interest rate of 0.25%, traded at $106.50 on Wednesday. A price above $100 par value is a gamble that the bonds are worth more than their principal amount

So, this leads me to make a prediction about market action.

Way too many people on Wall Street still think Tesla's going to convert the bonds. The short-sellers still think Tesla's going to convert the bonds even though Musk has said more than once that he plans to pay them off. The short-sellers still think Tesla's short on cash despite the billions it has in the bank, so they want to prevent Tesla from paying off the bonds.

Therefore the short-sellers will do everything they can, throw all their firepower at keeping the stock price below $360 until the bonds are actually paid off (or converted, I suppose) on March 1. We may expect the price to be "capped" below $360 until then, or at least until 4th quarter earnings come out in early Feburary.

There's my prediction. I could be wrong.
 
The question in my mind is, who's bottling up the process of bringing a no-confidence vote to the floor? Theoretically it's a privileged motion and May could be spilled right now, right?
Labor can bring it up anytime they want - but not again for another year. That would be the main calculation.

But some labor back benchers could support May.

Jeremy.PNG
 
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