TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Priigoat]

Tesla is aiming for 7000 model 3s production per week by Nov 28, if they succeed
It will be leaked or announced , that should be a bullish accomplishment in the coming
Week .

And if it is not reached? There is always 2 sides of the coin. Of course I do hope as well that they reach it.

 

[lklundin]

I wanted to do a very "realistic" model taking into consideration competitors and gross margins decrease. But even then, I'd estimate to see at least at 50-100% increase in Tesla share price. As a shareholder standpoint, I just try to be as realistic as possible to estimate risk/reward in the future.

When you "model" and when you "estimate", can you elaborate on how that is not "guess" ?

 

[Alphacrux]

Hard to believe a positive article about Tesla in the WSJ:

Tesla Is the Hot Spot for Young Job Seekers
Despite long hours and frenetic pace, a job at Elon Musk’s electric-car company is a career break many idealistic engineers find impossible to pass up

Summary:

• Tesla is one of the most popular of the 275,000+ employers on Handshake, a student career services app
• Tesla collected nearly a half million applications last year, about double the volume in 2016
  
• Many new employees have turned down offers from Waymo and Uber that were 20% to 50% above their Tesla salaries
• [Students] were "jumping out of their skin excited to be there" (at a Worcester Polytechnic Institute invitation only session hosted by Tesla)
• A summer intern spotted a way to tweak a step in a manufacturing line to speed up production. She put together a Powerpoint and suggested following up the next week with management to discuss implementing the change. "They were like, why not just try it tomorrow?" The process changed the next day and within a week the line was running more efficiently.

Of course, the usual trolls come out in the comments section, many saying that Tesla is heading for 'bankwuptcy"

 

[hobbes]

I talked yesterday with a sales manger in the Munich Tesla store and he told me they did not have time to breath the whole week trough given the constant and never ending cloud of people around the 3 from when the opened the store in the morning up to the evening where they have to lock the store to avoid it never gets empty.

The car is now about 10 days in the store and was occupied every second I was around.

I did not pick up a single negative tone, glance or comment from any visitor instead only positives so as expected the car continues to impress just standing and I can just imagine how it will be once they drive it.

Cool ! I'll be at the Düsseldorf show room tomorrow and report if the situation is the same there.

 

[hobbes]

Tesla is aiming for 7000 model 3s production per week by Nov 28, if they succeed
It will be leaked or announced , that should be a bullish accomplishment in the coming
Week .

Source? I don´t remember any concrete numbers given during the Q3 call/letter, correct me if I am wrong!

 

[Alphacrux]

Source? I don´t remember any concrete numbers given during the Q3 call/letter, correct me if I am wrong!

It was a tweet from Elon.

 

[hobbes]

It was a tweet from Elon.

Found it: Tesla is pushing to achieve Model 3 production of 7,000 units per week within 2 weeks
(electrek is better to search than twitter with all its reply sub-threads)

Completely missed that and was wondering what to expect, as lately Fred hasn´t been reporting his source´s numbers he used to post every Friday for a while. Exciting, that might be news able to move share price if achieved and macros don´t play foul.

 

[Drax7]

And if it is not reached? There is always 2 sides of the coin. Of course I do hope as well that they reach it.

The point being is that they have overcome constraints that allows them to aim
Higher. That’s the informational content, so if not this week then the next.
Production equals sales equals profit.
Do Love the smell of profit early in the ........

 

[erthquake]

I wanted to do a very "realistic" model taking into consideration competitors and gross margins decrease. But even then, I'd estimate to see at least at 50-100% increase in Tesla share price. As a shareholder standpoint, I just try to be as realistic as possible to estimate risk/reward in the future.

I think your overlooking the fact that when Tesla will re-stoke demand when they refreshe the S/X, probably sometime in 2019. That will maintain ASP while also leaping further ahead of the “competition.”

 

[Gavyne]

Hard to believe a positive article about Tesla in the WSJ:

Tesla Is the Hot Spot for Young Job Seekers
Despite long hours and frenetic pace, a job at Elon Musk’s electric-car company is a career break many idealistic engineers find impossible to pass up

Summary:

• Tesla is one of the most popular of the 275,000+ employers on Handshake, a student career services app
• Tesla collected nearly a half million applications last year, about double the volume in 2016
  
• Many new employees have turned down offers from Waymo and Uber that were 20% to 50% above their Tesla salaries
• [Students] were "jumping out of their skin excited to be there" (at a Worcester Polytechnic Institute invitation only session hosted by Tesla)
• A summer intern spotted a way to tweak a step in a manufacturing line to speed up production. She put together a Powerpoint and suggested following up the next week with management to discuss implementing the change. "They were like, why not just try it tomorrow?" The process changed the next day and within a week the line was running more efficiently.

Of course, the usual trolls come out in the comments section, many saying that Tesla is heading for 'bankwuptcy"

That's just awesome. This has everything to do with 1 man, Elon Musk. He inspires, and he trends very well with young people. The wall street doesn't seem to get this aspect of Elon. But everything Elon stands for, despite the work being hard and challenging at Tesla and SpaceX, people just can't help but want to be around him and his ideas.

This is a huge advantage Tesla has over competition. The amount of bright young people wanting to join Tesla and help achieve its missions show you Elon is doing it right.

 

[Carl Raymond]

And if it is not reached? There is always 2 sides of the coin. Of course I do hope as well that they reach it.

Priigoat. I suspect you have not followed Tesla for long. No harm comes from setting a high near term target and only reaching that target at the second attempt. It is quite likely that the first attempt will identify a constraint or two. Tesla will then fix that issue ASAP and then ramp to target.

This is standard Tesla modus operandi - stress test, identify issues, fix issues, ramp to new level.

And keep in mind that the level from which they are ramping is already a profitable volume; break even point was passed back at the start of Q3. We have dessert, and cream; this is about cherries.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Hard to believe a positive article about Tesla in the WSJ

I believed it when I hit a much harder Subscribe-Or-Frack-Off paywall than on the negative articles. I’m sure it’s just coincidence though. Never heard of “scripbait” so surely it’s not a thing.

Thanks for the review of the article - I opted to not subscribe at this time. The paywall seems Google-proof on this one.

 

[Artful Dodger]

And keep in mind that the level from which they are ramping is already a profitable volume; break even point was passed back at the start of Q3.

Indeed, the breakeven point for Model 3 was passed by the end of 2018 Q2.

Deepak Ahuja -- Chief Financial Officer

"Elon, you described it extremely well. So just to sort of summarize, this was a major milestone for us in Q2 that the gross margin in Model 3 turned slightly positive and we feel really good about the path ahead."​

CH3ERS!

 

[cheshire cat]

I always make a point of "baiting" them and their like, what is their slogan? Something about shedding light, but not much from behind the shadow of a paywall, they know they're on borrowed time.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Bloomberg tracker continues to drop everyday just like it did last quarter. Just before the last quarter announcements they were reporting 1611 model 3's per day and dropping fast. Then the numbers came out and they popped it up to 4700 and claimed they were pretty much bang on. My guess is that you will see bloomberg reporting below 4000 per week shortly.and by end of December below 3000. In my opinion this is purely intentional to influence markets for those less informed. The news media will quote the Bloomberg numbers just like last time and say they are no where near their expectations. Then the real numbers ill come out, Bloomberg will correct their numbers and say they were bang on again. I am surprised they are running this play again...but what do I know.

 

[sweter]

Tesla is aiming for 7000 model 3s production per week by Nov 28, if they succeed
It will be leaked or announced , that should be a bullish accomplishment in the coming
Week .

That's not true. They are aiming for "all Model 3 production subsytems need to be at 50+ UPH steady, which is what’s needed for a true 1000 vehicles per day rate". This is very different than Model 3 production (which I don't believe will be reached this quarter, maybe in last week crazy push).

EDIT: Also ironic how Elon used an acronym here

 

[Artful Dodger]

Okay, Techies. Here is a stock chart detail for Fri, Nov 23, 2018:

As you can see, TSLA traversed the Bollinger Band range from High to Low in 4 trading days, and closed Friday at $325.83 near the lower band limit on very light trading (4.2 M shares).

So then, what happens Monday, and this week? Big boys back to work, sniffing a bargain, looking for TSLA to move up? Agents of Chaos continue their shorting weirding ways, more beat-downs on no-news?

What do you think?

CH3ERS!

 

[KarenRei]

Okay, Techies. Here is a stock chart detail for Fri, Nov 23, 2018:

View attachment 355446

As you can see, TSLA traversed the Bollinger Band range from High to Low in 4 trading days, and closed Friday at $325.83 near the lower band limit on very light trading (4.2 M shares).

So then, what happens Monday, and this week? Big boys back to work, sniffing a bargain, looking for TSLA to move up? Agents of Chaos continue their shorting weirding ways, more beat-downs on no-news?

What do you think?

CH3ERS!

I can only speak for myself... I'm hoping that my SWIFT transfer will be posted first thing in the morning so I can buy more options.

 

[Unpilot]

Okay, Techies. Here is a stock chart detail for Fri, Nov 23, 2018:

View attachment 355446

As you can see, TSLA traversed the Bollinger Band range from High to Low in 4 trading days, and closed Friday at $325.83 near the lower band limit on very light trading (4.2 M shares).

So then, what happens Monday, and this week? Big boys back to work, sniffing a bargain, looking for TSLA to move up? Agents of Chaos continue their shorting weirding ways, more beat-downs on no-news?

What do you think?

CH3ERS!

Well I for one think there will be a large sell order right at close to drive the price down every single day next week.

Been that way for awhile.

 

[Alphacrux]

I believed it when I hit a much harder Subscribe-Or-Frack-Off paywall than on the negative articles. I’m sure it’s just coincidence though. Never heard of “scripbait” so surely it’s not a thing.

Thanks for the review of the article - I opted to not subscribe at this time. The paywall seems Google-proof on this one.

Don’t worry. The trolls made all the usual negative posts in the comments section.