TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mmd]

Tesla has a CEO who knows what people want. He helps design the car and it’s operating system. He tests beta versions of autopilot in his car. No other CEO does this. Why is this even a debate?

Disagree with the emboldened part. Elon deleted all his titles, announcing it on Tesla's official twitter channel. Now he is just a Nigerian prince asking people to send in deposits and order a Model 3.
Unless.. you want to say that Elon spoke an "untruth" about that.

You can see a long list of Tesla killers here - and how few they actually sell.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
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Here are also the top European EV models YTD.

Now, if you could kindly plot the super exponential Model S and X sales growth. I'm really weak in super exponential stuff. I will even give you the numbers. Super appreciate it!

 

[EVDRVN]

Well, this E-tron is a first non-Tesla car that got my attention last few years, other than some of the older Porsches...

Counterpoint is, I'm not touching anything from Bavaria until they prove their batteries, I've had enough of a heartache with Porsche not standing behind their products, not going to give them chance again...

But it is funny that Germans are now unproven underdogs in this new world - for those that know. Now, majority doesn't do proper reaserch, they just go with common wisdom, and that will still favour existing luxury brands for a little while; common wisdom takes time to change, but with Tesla's sales on fire, I expect that process with get some momentum now. 2 or 3 years down the road, what we know here, is likely to be common wisdom of informed majority...

Based on Audi reliability and repair costs an EV could be very costly. True or not it all goes back to the charge network.

 

[EVDRVN]

Speaking of Tesla killers, Nissan should kill it with the hold of any long range LEAF.

 

[CanadaEV]

Tesla has no true "competitors" for the foreseeable future. They cannot and do not plan to sell 100% of the world's cars. If the general investing public could understand this simple concept that would be really helpful imo. It's a boring concept to rehash

It is a simple and obvious concept, but it is mind wrenching to the 'business as usual' understanding of how the economy works. There are other concepts many do not understand, a few of which are:

1. A corporation can operate on a mission statement (for real) to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy', and,
   1. That this is not a promotional gimmick
2. A corporation can aspire (for real) to have their customers genuinely love their products, and,
   1. That this is not a feel good gimmick
3. A corporation, outside of legal expediency, can aspire to provide their customers the best possible safety, and,
   1. That this is not merely a carefully crafted corporate image

There are more, but you get the idea.
Given that these concepts are flatly denied by conventional economic wisdom, there is no convincing to be done. They simply do not speak this language, and in fact believe it is foolish to contemplate.

 

[sundaymorning]

Spread awareness:

Toxic waste from 22 coal plants in Illinois puts drinking water for nearby communities at risk, reports show

Tesla needs to succeed fast!

 

[RobStark]

Speaking of Tesla killers, Nissan should kill it with the hold of any long range LEAF.

The scuttlebutt is that they delayed the debut at Los Angeles International Auto Show because Nissan felt it would get drowned out by the Carlos Ghosn arrest noise.

But they have not delayed the on-sale date.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The tone of this thread has changed the past month toward hyper-optimism. The obvious reason - Where's the FUD? Very few arguments against Tesla now. Are they quietly waiting with ammo loaded if Q4 profit hiccups? Did they lose their sponsors? True that Shorts are fewer, but there's still significant pressure out there, maybe focused on a plan to escape without complete loss. So I would expect one more last call before the door closes tight and this "squeeze" actually materializes. Early Q1 will be their last chance, plan on the dip IMO or just ignore it and ride it out long.

To the newcomers, if you go back in time just a couple months, you'd be seriously concerned about the future of Tesla. Now it's all bliss. For the record, we all knew it was fine. But also just a couple months ago, my neighbors thought I was crazy and the most common story was that Tesla had factory issues and was going to die soon. Although Elon did come close to having to borrow a bit more to get over the hump, a BK was never mentioned from his mouth. His stress IMO was all about NOT proving the Shorts right. We knew he was serious in Q3 when Home Depot contracts ended, Suppliers where pushed on for discounts, and production volume kept growing in hell. Clearly not the behavior of a spoiled kid from California. He grew some ___ there.

Myself, I never doubted the mission or the stock price. Absolutely everything for the past 10 pages is spot on regarding competition. However, like the Shorty-shorts taunting which I thought unnecessary, I also feel for the autoworker (even a little for the sales force at dealerships). The impact from Tesla's breakthrough is going to be a painful migration for the world. I wish them all the best because it hurts to see whole families and towns lose their jobs on the news. It's sad for many, but I don't see any other outcome.

 

[EVDRVN]

The scuttlebutt is that they delayed the debut at Los Angeles International Auto Show because Nissan felt it would get drowned out by the Carlos Ghosn arrest noise.

But they have not delayed the on-sale date.

It makes no sense to delay the debut if they intend to release it. Most consumers have no idea or care and it is a lost opportunity. Seems more like another stalling tactic. Let's see when that car is available for delivery in mass.

 

[NicoV]

We’ll see. Twt

I am 100% certain that there are Western Europeans and Brits who would buy this Audi instead of the Tesla S. ergo a Tesla S sales loss

Same with some Americans. There are some who would buy the Tesla but would prefer the newness and cache of the newest latest hottest hard to get e-tron

Frankly I’m not really sure why you have to label this FUD but then again I’m not surprised.

The Audi will sell, but that’s not the issue. The question is whether it will sell in such quantities that Tesla will not be capacity constrained on th S/X models.

 

[Fact Checking]

I absolutely appreciate your EV passion but some of the incessant political zealotry is grating.

FWIW: your statement on where federal money is spent is just not true.....about 60% of the Federal Spend is for Retirement & Social Programs, almost 3x Defense Spend.

That's really misleading, as a lot of that is mandatory spending.

Discretionary federal spending looks very different:

In 2015 54% was military, plus 6% veterans' benefits.

 

[schonelucht]

The number to compare is not "stations", it's "chargers" and "stalls“.

Incorrect. The number to compare is peak usage time. 50 stalls serving 250 cars is better than 300 stalls serving 5000 cars. Tesla superchargers are free for nearly almost all Tesla cars currently in the Netherlands, which makes usage a lot higher.

In practice the Fastned network is just as convenient as the supercharger network within its range. The company is actually more committed than Tesla to expand when overflow happens on a regular basis : it took Tesla years (and a court judgment against the company) to fix the commercial driver situation around Schiphol Airport but it took just weeks for Fastned to add stalls. Which is normal : for them it’s extra revenue, for Tesla it was extra CapEx that didn’t even benefit their regular customers.

 

[Priigoat]

That's really misleading, as a lot of that is mandatory spending.

Discretionary federal spending looks very different:

In 2015 54% was military, plus 6% veterans' benefits.

Lol, the United States could be such an awesome country, if they just cut 27% of these immensive military expenses. They are just crazy. Only 2% goes into transportation and 6% into education. Wow.

 

[schonelucht]

So they are nowhere close to being shipped with turn-key FSD ready hardware like every post-2016 Tesla.

Fact checking the fact checker : there is not a single (0) Tesla that shipped with turn key FSD ready hardware so far. By admission of the company itself no less.

Elon swore up and down in 2016 that what they put in that car at the time was FSD capable and would complete a coast to coast trip by 2017. It wasn’t and the car didn’t. I’ll believe what they are going to put in there ‘6 months from now’ is FSD capable when I see it. Elon has lost the privilege of being taken on good faith when making FSD predictions a long time ago.

 

[EVNow]

I absolutely appreciate your EV passion but some of the incessant political zealotry is grating.

FWIW: your statement on where federal money is spent is just not true.....about 60% of the Federal Spend is for Retirement & Social Programs, almost 3x Defense Spend.

Policy Basics: Where Do Our Federal Tax Dollars Go?
2017: Social Security (24%), Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, and marketplace ACA subsidies (26%), Safety Net (9%, Earned Income Tax credit & child care credit) whereby defense was 16%.

From CBO 2017: The Federal Budget in 2017: An Infographic | Congressional Budget Office


View attachment 356294

Now, I'd like our Government to accelerate the build out of charging solutions in the U.S. so that EV products will be more acceptable to the buying public but I'd hate for GM, Ford and the others to get a free ride (as against Tesla & its shareholders who have bank rolled the SC network).

I'm talking about discretionary spending.

This forum is such a valuable learning place. Where else can you learn that
- pointing out that trillions are wasted in wars while nothing is spent on ev charging infrastructure is grating political zealotry
- all union workers are lazy
- colonization was beneficial to the victims

 

[schonelucht]

But they have not delayed the on-sale date.

‘Yet’. Granted the roll out of the 40kwh leaf went well, but this is a whole different beast. It would actually be the first decent range electric car without a disappointing launch.

 

[Fact Checking]

Fact checking the fact checker : there is not a single (0) Tesla that shipped with turn key FSD ready hardware so far. By admission of the company itself no less.

Fair point that my FSD statement was misleading, it did not include the following qualifiers:

Estimates of the new Tesla Chip based FSD module's marginal cost are below ~$500 with a 30 minutes plug-in installation, to be installed in all cars that already purchased or are going to purchase the FSD option.

So unless your argument is that a ~10x performance increase over the Nvidia based hardware is not enough for FSD, every Tesla is IMO effectively FSD capable, from the POV of customers.

 

[EVNow]

Lol, the United States could be such an awesome country, if they just cut 27% of these immensive military expenses. They are just crazy. Only 2% goes into transportation and 6% into education. Wow.

Hey watch out, PC police will be here shortly to charge you with grating political zealotry.

 

[Tslynk67]

Poetic license. Stand on your head. You'll get it.

Oh, and, check his overnight posts, New York time that is.

Well it's 8AM here right now, still at home and just done a Twitter pass, as you're keeping notes...

 

[EVNow]

Now, if you could kindly plot the super exponential Model S and X sales growth. I'm really weak in super exponential stuff. I will even give you the numbers. Super appreciate it!

This is super helpful.

As you can see S and X hardly sell in EU. So most of the e-torn sales will come at the expense of others.

Even though S &X hardly sell in EU, they are already production constrained. So no growth !

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I absolutely appreciate your EV passion but some of the incessant political zealotry is grating.

FWIW: your statement on where federal money is spent is just not true.....about 60% of the Federal Spend is for Retirement & Social Programs, almost 3x Defense Spend.

Policy Basics: Where Do Our Federal Tax Dollars Go?
2017: Social Security (24%), Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, and marketplace ACA subsidies (26%), Safety Net (9%, Earned Income Tax credit & child care credit) whereby defense was 16%.

From CBO 2017: The Federal Budget in 2017: An Infographic | Congressional Budget Office


View attachment 356294

Now, I'd like our Government to accelerate the build out of charging solutions in the U.S. so that EV products will be more acceptable to the buying public but I'd hate for GM, Ford and the others to get a free ride (as against Tesla & its shareholders who have bank rolled the SC network).

It’s always a little weird to me that Social Security is included in such reports. Last I saw(a couple years ago), it still brings in slightly more than is spent on it. Only any deficit in social security spending(amount in excess of what’s brought in) should be counted towards annual budget.