Thanks for sitting through those so I didn't have to!
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Thanks for sitting through those so I didn't have to!
It's fine, I was long gone to sleep, now it's setup.
Hardly pleasant conversation though, here's a favour for personal income tax - has actually reduced in recent years
Annual income Tax rate
In between €10,860 and €12,470 30%
In between €12,470 and €20,780 40%
In between €20,780 and €38,080 45%
In excess of €38,080 50%
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Actually, Australia is mining more coal than ever before - 2017 was a new record year and 2018 likely too:
They aren't burning as much of it domestically - but Australia has a small population and is a prosperous country, they can afford not burning the bad stuff.
They are exporting the coal to China, India and Japan instead:
Yeah, they say once you find the right stock price/trading pattern, just stick with it 'cause it works every time!
Right?
-Not an advice.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I can't believe US demand for Model 3 is so bad that Tesla is forced to dump product on foreign markets. Sorry, Europe. Please buy a few to support Tesla as it struggles to become a real car company and to relieve yourself of a bit of climate guilt.
engle
Member
Yes! I saw what looked like a record number of car carriers loading in the outbound logistics lot today (12/13) around 9 am driving by entering N-880 from Mission Blvd. Too many to easily count while driving. I will try to take some photographs after my 4th factory tour on Monday 12/17.
My expectation is that TSLA will have a total blow-out Q4. I personally "sold" one Model 3 to a baby-boomer generation DDS friend of mine after letting her test-drive my 3 and teaching her how to drive an EV. Today, after a 4-plex property inspection, the company president friend of mine test drove my 3. He told me he had *never* driven an EV before and said "I am totally sold". Sale #2 and I'm just one owner in 2 weeks. Both of them can take delivery before 12/31. The DDS is this Sunday at 10:30 am at Fremont Delivery Center. I'll report back afterwards the approx. delivery volume. It's hard to tell now, because they don't have room inside the building anymore. All the "S/3/X" is being delivered in the parking lots surrounding the building (pun intended!).
One thing that really strikes me there is the "trade-in" holding lot. As reported in the media, Tesla is making incredible customer "conquests" from all the other ICE dinosaur companies. Numerous used Civics, Corollas, Subarus, etc. etc. in addition to the Bimmers, Benzes, etc. that you would expect to see. This shows that smart consumers understand the Model 3 is a vehicle that is very economical to operate and are flocking to it in droves.
Now with Europe opening up for orders for 2019 Q1+ delivery, the story for TSLA will get even better. I think in hindsight we will see that "most" of the EV competition from the ICErs came "too late". Their "stealership" sales model, lack of over-the-air updates, ugly designs in some instances, inferior charging network coverage, and other factors will allow Tesla to continue to prevail. Model Y will also be a *huge* demand driver for TSLA, since small SUVs normally outsell small sedans.
Even if the flood of EV's from other companies combined takes a higher market share than Tesla has in the future, I don't think fundamentally that it will matter. The reason is Teslas will always be seen as the "iPhones" of the EV market and their buyers will pay higher margins to own one so they can be identified with the brand. IMHO, the brand value of Tesla has increased exponentially this year due to Model 3 market penetration.
Russ
PS. I reserved a Model S on 8/1/2011 at the old store where the original Tesla Roadster body gliders were mated to the EV drivetrain. The first time I set foot inside Tesla Factory was during the fall 2011 Model S Prototype Reveal and Rides Event. I was extremely impressed by Elon. After my "Model S Ride", I literally felt like I had time-traveled into the future of personal transportation! I was blown away, and started investing in TSLA. My now 85 y/o mother is still p*ss*d off at Schwab because she planned to buy 1,000 shares in the $30's, but only bought 200 because Schwab rated TSLA an "F" stock -- they still do!
My expectation is that TSLA will have a total blow-out Q4. I personally "sold" one Model 3 to a baby-boomer generation DDS friend of mine after letting her test-drive my 3 and teaching her how to drive an EV. Today, after a 4-plex property inspection, the company president friend of mine test drove my 3. He told me he had *never* driven an EV before and said "I am totally sold". Sale #2 and I'm just one owner in 2 weeks. Both of them can take delivery before 12/31. The DDS is this Sunday at 10:30 am at Fremont Delivery Center. I'll report back afterwards the approx. delivery volume. It's hard to tell now, because they don't have room inside the building anymore. All the "S/3/X" is being delivered in the parking lots surrounding the building (pun intended!).
One thing that really strikes me there is the "trade-in" holding lot. As reported in the media, Tesla is making incredible customer "conquests" from all the other ICE dinosaur companies. Numerous used Civics, Corollas, Subarus, etc. etc. in addition to the Bimmers, Benzes, etc. that you would expect to see. This shows that smart consumers understand the Model 3 is a vehicle that is very economical to operate and are flocking to it in droves.
Now with Europe opening up for orders for 2019 Q1+ delivery, the story for TSLA will get even better. I think in hindsight we will see that "most" of the EV competition from the ICErs came "too late". Their "stealership" sales model, lack of over-the-air updates, ugly designs in some instances, inferior charging network coverage, and other factors will allow Tesla to continue to prevail. Model Y will also be a *huge* demand driver for TSLA, since small SUVs normally outsell small sedans.
Even if the flood of EV's from other companies combined takes a higher market share than Tesla has in the future, I don't think fundamentally that it will matter. The reason is Teslas will always be seen as the "iPhones" of the EV market and their buyers will pay higher margins to own one so they can be identified with the brand. IMHO, the brand value of Tesla has increased exponentially this year due to Model 3 market penetration.
Russ
PS. I reserved a Model S on 8/1/2011 at the old store where the original Tesla Roadster body gliders were mated to the EV drivetrain. The first time I set foot inside Tesla Factory was during the fall 2011 Model S Prototype Reveal and Rides Event. I was extremely impressed by Elon. After my "Model S Ride", I literally felt like I had time-traveled into the future of personal transportation! I was blown away, and started investing in TSLA. My now 85 y/o mother is still p*ss*d off at Schwab because she planned to buy 1,000 shares in the $30's, but only bought 200 because Schwab rated TSLA an "F" stock -- they still do!
Not sure how much you know about India, only the rich have cars
Yes, eventually oil demand will suffer because of EVs, but even in the US, it may take a decade for EVs to get 10% market share.
BTW, coal was not done in by solar - but by cheap natural gas due to fracking and regulations.
View attachment 360830
Actually car ownership is even lesser because car is owned mostly in cities/towns. Its no longer apt to say that the rich only have cars but the middle class in cities is buying more. Per capita numbers look small because of huge population. As per recent govt. report it is at 22 per 1000 and is expected to raise to 175 cars per 1,000 citizens by 2040 which is close to 12% increase per year for next two decades. But cities already has much more at 120-130 per 1000. At 1.7M cars sold in 6 months(worlds 4th largest market) at around $10k avg price and the avg price is increasing for the last few years.
The luxury car sales(start at $50k and more like $65k with taxes) is at 40000 units per year and is also expected to grow at 10%.
Then there is 2 wheeler sales(avg cost at $1k) which are even more(worlds biggest market) at close to 10M in 6 months and the rural penetration is also more and is growing.
The govt. taxes fuel like crazy at >100% of refinery prices and adjusts upwards with falling crude prices(but not when rising) so that they get same $ and not to mention the pollution. People will happily switch if a good option is available in both 2 and 4 wheeler with reasonable distance(100-150km for 2 wheelers and 300-400km for a car).
2 wheeler electrics make more sense for India because of infrastructure issues, shorter commute distances per day and should be taken into account rather than car sales alone and have many takers at avg cost of $2k with lesser running costs.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Yes, he tweeted about it yesterday:
Troy Teslike on Twitter
"#Model3 production rate is now ~6K/week. They are working full shifts on weekends. They have only 6 days worth of backlog left in North America. There will be many instant deliveries in the last 10 days. #Tesla #badass"
"#Model3 production rate is now ~6K/week. They are working full shifts on weekends. They have only 6 days worth of backlog left in North America. There will be many instant deliveries in the last 10 days. #Tesla #badass"
I believe Tesla is attempting a repeat of Q3: ramped up but not break-neck production, west coast deliveries and cleaned out inventory across the board to preserve working capital (have less value 'in transit').
This will be easier in Q4: Fremont has historically been shutting down in the final week of the year, this means they can more precisely target low inventory levels (of parts, half made cars and not yet delivered cars in transit) to be reached exactly on December 31.
They can still do deliveries up to the final day of the quarter.
Agreed. Current projections from Troy are about 61k Model 3's made in Q4. If Tesla sees a chance they might try to reach 65k, just to reach a formal 5k/week rate, which was mentioned by Moody's as a condition for an upgrade.
I wouldn't expect higher Q4 Model 3 production than 65k though - and more realistically in the 60k-65k range.
On twitter the shorts are circulating news about unsold increasing inventory near various delivery center, and empty hauling trucks piling up near Fremont.
Anyone knows how the local delivery center are doing right now? I am guessing the reason they see what they see is due to:
1) Delivery center is actually the bottleneck here. Most of the inventory are shipped because it's already sold. The inventory is piling up due to demand >> rate of delivery. Specifically the shorts talked about parking lot near service center in Rockville MD
2) Some options produced in Fremont are part of batch production with no matching buyer yet. These are the "immediate delivery" ones that tesla advertises as order now get it by 12/31. Tesla has to do it this way since made to order model 3s cannot possibly be delivered by 12/31 due to shipping delay. Therefore they pre-ship some options to various service center for immediately delivery. These are the "take it or leave it" options, no customization allowed.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Question to you and @EVNow: do in practice those 100%+ taxes on fuel get gamed/avoided frequently in India, by turning heating oil into petrol privately or by using vegetable oil, and by importing crude oil without paying taxes?
I'd expect that to be quite common in rural communities - which would delay EV adoption due to the grey/black economy of illegally distilled fuel creating much lower effective fuel prices than the 'official' taxed fuel prices.
It's what happened in Eastern Europe in the 1990s when their currencies were floated freely and crashed, fuel was taxed heavily and became very expensive from these two forces: crude oil was smuggled from Russia and distilled illegally (on an industrial scale), heating oil with lower tax content was 'converted' to fuel, vegetable oil was repurposed, etc.
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A German market study predicts 20k Model 3 sold in 2019 in Germany.
With 3 k per week delivered after February weekly its about an annual run rate of 150k for all of Europe but we can assume they increase that over the year.
Dudenhöffer, a so called OEM expert also said (for Germany) "2019 will the year of Tesla" but after he predicts all the German manufacturers are coming.
Well, if that is true than I ask myself what is the car that will compete with the 3? Once the MR and SR out delivered the distance between an e-Tron, I-Pace, i3 and other will be even larger. So my prediction is that 2020 will be even better than the previous year.
Also he talked about the German company car tax regulation that changed in favor of EVs, 800.000 new cars for businesses are sold every year and that market should be a great market for Tesla.
Tesla: 2019 verdoppelt sich die Zahl der E-Auto-Zulassungszahlen
With 3 k per week delivered after February weekly its about an annual run rate of 150k for all of Europe but we can assume they increase that over the year.
Dudenhöffer, a so called OEM expert also said (for Germany) "2019 will the year of Tesla" but after he predicts all the German manufacturers are coming.
Well, if that is true than I ask myself what is the car that will compete with the 3? Once the MR and SR out delivered the distance between an e-Tron, I-Pace, i3 and other will be even larger. So my prediction is that 2020 will be even better than the previous year.
Also he talked about the German company car tax regulation that changed in favor of EVs, 800.000 new cars for businesses are sold every year and that market should be a great market for Tesla.
Tesla: 2019 verdoppelt sich die Zahl der E-Auto-Zulassungszahlen
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A portion of the bears and shorts invested in Tesla obviously is not really and somehow interested in making money if we look at the losses in the billions they made already (see Ighors tweets). Clearly some are just not the smartes and did not do their homework and because of that lost but at the stage we are at, near ATH with only positive information to come its for some more than just not been smart to stay.
If we look at how resilient they are at a point in time where they are about to loose everything and more my assumption is that at least with some of them its more about keeping Teslas investment ability down to reduce the speed of expansion.
Big Oil has tremendous resources to do that and hedge fund managers paid for that work certainly will not say "no" if they get an offer to do that work for them.
So I beliebe big Oil has a high interest and in a decade from now or so first information what happened will leak out. Some of those will be fraudulent other will be hard to prove but there is too much at risk here for oil and car companies not to try to stop Tesla.
Time will tell..
I was driving the return leg of my first Model 3 road trip (SF Bay Area back to Seattle) and I was driving along and I saw a loaded car carrier heading the same direction somewhere near Medford. I was watching the road at first and not paying much attention but as I pulled alongside it with intent to pass, I glanced up at the carrier's load and I was like "Gee those cars look a lot like mine!" It was a car carrier with 3's on it heading north to happy owners in either Washington or Oregon!
Now I don't really know the odds of me just happening to be driving north on I-5 exactly when a car carrier with 3's on it is also driving the same route but they don't seem good if it was a one-time occurrence. The other possibility is a lot of car carriers are driving that route these days and as such it was easy for me to randomly spot one on any given day.
Now I don't really know the odds of me just happening to be driving north on I-5 exactly when a car carrier with 3's on it is also driving the same route but they don't seem good if it was a one-time occurrence. The other possibility is a lot of car carriers are driving that route these days and as such it was easy for me to randomly spot one on any given day.
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Dudenhöffer is still one of the very few who "get's it" .. sort of. But my WAG (wild ass guess) for Germany would be clearly higher.
Based on the information of the CAM (Center of Automotive Management) there will are 68'000 new EV's registered in Germany in 2018 (that includes Hybrids).
> source: Elektroautos: 68.000 Neuzulassungen in Deutschland
I would be surprised if Tesla won't sell 40'000 cars in 2019 in Germany (50% M3's, 50% S&X). Upcoming Tesla-Killers will remain a myth for as long as the charging network is not installed and the big german manufacturers have secured sufficient battery production. So basically Tesla has no competition for at least another 3-5 years (estimated time to build a Giga-factory on this continent, if they stop sitting on their hands).
I agree @avoigt, that 2020 will be even better ; )
Based on the information of the CAM (Center of Automotive Management) there will are 68'000 new EV's registered in Germany in 2018 (that includes Hybrids).
> source: Elektroautos: 68.000 Neuzulassungen in Deutschland
I would be surprised if Tesla won't sell 40'000 cars in 2019 in Germany (50% M3's, 50% S&X). Upcoming Tesla-Killers will remain a myth for as long as the charging network is not installed and the big german manufacturers have secured sufficient battery production. So basically Tesla has no competition for at least another 3-5 years (estimated time to build a Giga-factory on this continent, if they stop sitting on their hands).
I agree @avoigt, that 2020 will be even better ; )
engle
Member
Anyone knows how the local delivery center are doing right now? I am guessing the reason they see what they see is due to:
1) Delivery center is actually the bottleneck here. Most of the inventory are shipped because it's already sold. The inventory is piling up due to demand >> rate of delivery. Specifically the shorts talked about parking lot near service center in Rockville MD
I was in Fremont Delivery Center on Sunday, Dec. 9 around 3 pm. We had to wait almost an hour just for a "host" to free-up to find a wall connector for my DDS referral friend who is taking her delivery Sunday, Dec. 16th at 10:30 am. (Note she ordered Sun 12/9 afternoon and they offered delivery as early as Tues. 12/11 but she is too busy seeing patients.) Part of that wait was for the "hosts" to find the person with the POS (Point Of Sale) device. Initially, they hesitated selling my friend a wall connector fearing they would run out of them for people picking up their cars that day.
I was pleasantly surprised to meet a fellow owner from the Silicon Valley Tesla Club wearing a red "Visitor" badge who was there to teach new owners how to use their Teslas! He said he and another club member were there, and that the delivery team expected they would get "slammed" around 4:30 pm.
The reason I quoted "host" is I immediately free-associated the late Michael Crichton's "Westworld" which I read growing up, later saw the Yul Brynner film and contemporary HBO series. I think Elon in the back of his mind someday would like to add robotic "hosts" to the delivery team! I was chatting up a *very* personable Tesla "host" who said she used to work as a check-in clerk at an Aloft hotel. She managed to smile while saying Aloft has a robot that delivers items to guests' rooms. Anyway, futuristic Tesla robotic delivery "hosts" -- you read it here first!
2) Some options produced in Fremont are part of batch production with no matching buyer yet. These are the "immediate delivery" ones that tesla advertises as order now get it by 12/31. Tesla has to do it this way since made to order model 3s cannot possibly be delivered by 12/31 due to shipping delay. Therefore they pre-ship some options to various service center for immediately delivery. These are the "take it or leave it" options, no customization allowed.[/QUOTE]
Yes, one reason IMHO that Elon limited the number of paint options - besides reducing the number of paint batch switches in the paint shops - is to limit choices to the most popular paints. Model 3 really has very few options right now when you think about it, which is great for the last minute sales. Tesla no longer assigns VINs early to "custom" configured builds so they have max logistically flexibility getting units in the hands of the buyers that can take delivery before 2019.
In my personal experience, it is so easy to close a prospective USA referral buyer to buy in Q4 due to the IRS tax credit reduction. The same will be true towards the end of 2019 Q2 IMHO, even though the dollar delta will be less...
Funny story alert: older brother of the DDS, who originally was going to order black paint, told her:
"You better not get the black paint. Everyone knows that black is free, so they will think you are cheap!"
So she ordered white paint!
The empty hauling trucks temporarily wait south of the factory parked along the side of Kato Road. They are waiting to be called into the Outboard Logistics Lot to be loaded. Tesla can only load so many trucks an hour, you know! I think Tesla wants a "buffer" of available trucks so lack of trucks is not a limiting factor like it was towards the end of Q3. I read TSLA bought some trucking companies, too. More vertical integration!
The shorts are just grasping at straws as they are losing oxygen on their "trade". Good luck (and good riddance) to them!
1) Delivery center is actually the bottleneck here. Most of the inventory are shipped because it's already sold. The inventory is piling up due to demand >> rate of delivery. Specifically the shorts talked about parking lot near service center in Rockville MD
I was in Fremont Delivery Center on Sunday, Dec. 9 around 3 pm. We had to wait almost an hour just for a "host" to free-up to find a wall connector for my DDS referral friend who is taking her delivery Sunday, Dec. 16th at 10:30 am. (Note she ordered Sun 12/9 afternoon and they offered delivery as early as Tues. 12/11 but she is too busy seeing patients.) Part of that wait was for the "hosts" to find the person with the POS (Point Of Sale) device. Initially, they hesitated selling my friend a wall connector fearing they would run out of them for people picking up their cars that day.
I was pleasantly surprised to meet a fellow owner from the Silicon Valley Tesla Club wearing a red "Visitor" badge who was there to teach new owners how to use their Teslas! He said he and another club member were there, and that the delivery team expected they would get "slammed" around 4:30 pm.
The reason I quoted "host" is I immediately free-associated the late Michael Crichton's "Westworld" which I read growing up, later saw the Yul Brynner film and contemporary HBO series. I think Elon in the back of his mind someday would like to add robotic "hosts" to the delivery team! I was chatting up a *very* personable
Tesla "host" who said she used to work as a check-in clerk at an Aloft hotel. She managed to smile while saying Aloft has a robot that delivers items to guests' rooms. Anyway, futuristic Tesla robotic delivery "hosts" -- you read it here first! 2) Some options produced in Fremont are part of batch production with no matching buyer yet. These are the "immediate delivery" ones that tesla advertises as order now get it by 12/31. Tesla has to do it this way since made to order model 3s cannot possibly be delivered by 12/31 due to shipping delay. Therefore they pre-ship some options to various service center for immediately delivery. These are the "take it or leave it" options, no customization allowed.[/QUOTE]
Yes, one reason IMHO that Elon limited the number of paint options - besides reducing the number of paint batch switches in the paint shops - is to limit choices to the most popular paints. Model 3 really has very few options right now when you think about it, which is great for the last minute sales. Tesla no longer assigns VINs early to "custom" configured builds so they have max logistically flexibility getting units in the hands of the buyers that can take delivery before 2019.
In my personal experience, it is so easy to close a prospective USA referral buyer to buy in Q4 due to the IRS tax credit reduction. The same will be true towards the end of 2019 Q2 IMHO, even though the dollar delta will be less...
Funny story alert: older brother of the DDS, who originally was going to order black paint, told her:
"You better not get the black paint. Everyone knows that black is free, so they will think you are cheap!"
So she ordered white paint!
The empty hauling trucks temporarily wait south of the factory parked along the side of Kato Road. They are waiting to be called into the Outboard Logistics Lot to be loaded. Tesla can only load so many trucks an hour, you know! I think Tesla wants a "buffer" of available trucks so lack of trucks is not a limiting factor like it was towards the end of Q3. I read TSLA bought some trucking companies, too. More vertical integration!
The shorts are just grasping at straws as they are losing oxygen on their "trade". Good luck (and good riddance) to them!
They say if you want to know how you should be trading, you should be watching what the "smart money" is doing. And by "smart money" of course I mean the whales, the institutional investors and the hedge funds.
People often wonder why institutional investors aren't required to report their activities more than once a quarter, and why hedge funds don't need to disclose what they are doing publicly period and only need to disclose to their own investors once a year. It's actually pretty obvious: the whales really don't want the minnows to know what they are doing. The entire market operates on the principle of unfair information, and the retail investors are always the ones who get killed. The game has always been rigged and always will be.
Ordering for M3 now open for me in Begium...
OT
Here's a new song I recorded tonight with Tesla references as usual
"Free Tekashi Free Bobby
I be Agent 8 pull up the Tesla in the lobby"
and "Wings on my whip like I got Hermes riding shotty"
wings being a reference to X falcon wings
Agent 8 - FREE TEKASHI.wav
Here's a new song I recorded tonight with Tesla references as usual
"Free Tekashi Free Bobby
I be Agent 8 pull up the Tesla in the lobby"
and "Wings on my whip like I got Hermes riding shotty"
wings being a reference to X falcon wings
Agent 8 - FREE TEKASHI.wav
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