TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[avoigt]

This is how growth looks like..... flat or shrinking looks different:


anonyx‏ @anonyx10
A few insights from Tesla’s current job postings: Tesla is definitely in growth mode, having sharply expanded job postings in the past two months (postings up to 2,430 today from 1,055 since mid-October, +1,375 postings added in past two months!).

 

[printf42]

OT

I find that it will be very challenging to have very high sensitivity and specificity that is needed for safe, practical use. E.g. will the model be able to have say ~ both 0.0001% false positive rate and 0.00001% false negative rate.

Seems you are limiting perception to classification problems, with stereoscopic vision it’s actually not that hard to identify obstacles and plan a safe path pretty reliably.
Mistaking a SUV to a VAN would not cause accidents.
Sure if you are getting into profilings other road users and trying to predict their movement patterns, false classification could cause confusion, but, you don’t have to do that if you’re driving reasonably defensively.

 

[EVNow]

OT :

E.g. will the model be able to have say ~ both 0.0001% false positive rate and 0.00001% false negative rate. Both are required to have the vehicle not get in many accidents and not slam on the brakes / slow the car down for phantom events (which would cause so much road rage against FSD cars).

What are the rates for humans ? I think FSD needs to be 2x better than humans for its wide adoption.

 

[EVNow]

Nasdaq is dropping sharply - 6390 to 6360 - but only a little fade of TSLA. Sometimes this results in a sharp drop of TSLA after a few minutes.

ps : TSLA dropped below 302.50 as I was posting. TSLA now lagging Nasdaq by 4%.

 

[palmer_md]

ps : TSLA dropped below 320.50 as I was posting. TSLA now lagging Nasdaq by 4%.

Did you mean 302 . Hasn't been 320 since hours ago, first thing in the morning .

 

[HG Wells]

This is how growth looks like..... flat or shrinking looks different:


anonyx‏ @anonyx10
A few insights from Tesla’s current job postings: Tesla is definitely in growth mode, having sharply expanded job postings in the past two months (postings up to 2,430 today from 1,055 since mid-October, +1,375 postings added in past two months!).

Flat or shrinking usually has a pink tinge to it.

We are definitely in growth mode.

 

[ChrML]

Loaded up my swingtrading account @ ~302$. I think $TSLA has been affected greatly by SPY as well as news vacuum and overthinking analysts. Hoping to sell around 350 again, there is historically great support at 290$ and 275$ so we need about x2 bad news to get all the way down to 260$ I believe.

My personal opinion, not an advice ...

 

[avoigt]

Correct. 50% is a good estimate. It is important to differentiate between backlog and sustainable demand. Those are not the same thing. Here is a chart that shows orders by reservation holders vs non-reservation holders:

Here is another chart that shows deliveries to reservation holders vs non-reservation holders:

This data is public in my survey. Column E on the 'All Entries' tab here shows reservation status.


That's not correct. I tweeted about not confusing backlog with sustainable demand here.



No, here is what actually happened:

I estimated 292K Model 3 prod in 2019 here. ValueAnalyst didn't like that. Apparently, he estimates 410K (see this tweet). I said I hope you are right and they make 410K and asked him to add his estimate to a survey about this where the accuracy of each entry will be measured (see my tweet). So far 38 people have submitted estimates for Q1 2019 and entire 2019 HERE but ValueAnalyst is not one of them. On Twitter, you need to look at replies as well to see the whole discussion.




I'm going to say the same thing to you I told to ValueAnalyst. It's unsportsmanlike to criticize other people's estimates without providing your own. He didn't mention 410K until much later and tried to start an argument about unimportant details without providing an estimate first. If you have different estimates in mind for 2019 and Q1 2019, you can enter them HERE. The accuracy of all entries will be measured when we find out the actual numbers.

I will tweet my final estimates for Q4 before the end of the quarter. The spreadsheet will also show the final estimates on 31st Dec. @TroyTeslike

Thanks for your reply and finally an explanation at least to a certain extend but allow me to I have a different opinion about the 3 projection in the US and international. I like the comparison from non reservation to reservation orders as this explains where you come from but it assumed the situation to remain static instead of dynamic and that's a modeling thats a simplification which makes the calculation possible but less correct if not even false.

I like your data driven model but have my questions to what extend it is valid today as it has been valid in the past which has to do with the amount of reporting in relation to the amount of produced and delivered cars. I guess you have seen the statistics. Just my view on statistical relevance. Data points are decreasing but you may still be right however its less likely.

To explain a second point: The reason why I believe your model is not any longer as valid as its been is because its literally impossible to predict market demand in EU and China where not sales and no VIN sporting did happen yet. So how do you assume demand in other continents with no data? If its by using the US data than my question would be if you have been in Europe before and how well you know that market? The same applies for China.

Other questions: How did you come up with a shrinking 50% for the US market ? Do you believe the demand recorded will behave like it did for the LR once the SR comes out and what will happen to the demand once leasing happened or other options Tesla can pull to push demand?

If demand in the US is as weak as you predict in 2019 why did Tesla not do any efforts to create demand like for instance leasing already? Why is the production line still ramping up if demand for the 3 internationally+US will remain almost the same?

Again lots of respect for your work and congrats to an astounding accuracy I just believe that the method used in the past is for statistical accurate reasons including assumptions that will not apply in 2019 not valid in markets like EU and China and secondly not in the US as you need to factor in more levers Tesla can pull in case demand gets weak.

Your US model calculation assumes a static situation e.g. no SR in the near future and no leasing at and despite other option Tesla has.

Still very happy to have your data and many thanks for all the efforts you put in. Clearly a big asset for all of us!

Still too many statistical question are not answered to make your 2019 model a viable one for me and too many assumptions in your model that IMHO won't apply in 2019.

Time will tell who is right...

 

[EVNow]

Did you mean 302 . Hasn't been 320 since hours ago, first thing in the morning .

Oh yes.

BTW, 302.50 seems to be holding - for some odd reason. I may buy some calls if SP hits 302s again.

 

[Electroman]

You can disagree with the Presidents' policies and have a respectful discussion about them without those kinds of demeaning comments

Assuming if he has a policy.

But i agree, that demeaning references calling Trump a buffoon is very disrespectful.... to buffoons everywhere.

 

[M3Rider]

Agreed if he has a policy.

But i agree that demeaning references calling Trump a buffoon is very disrespectful.... to buffoons everywhere.

He who disrespects everybody else including many great people does not deserve a respect himself.

 

[avoigt]

@Cherry Wine, It's correct that fewer people enter data in my survey and this makes things more difficult to see. This is similar to how an image with low pixel count appears blurry. I try to compensate for that. At the same time, Tesla is making things difficult because of non-sequential VIN assignments and leaving gaps behind. But I'm trying to be as accurate as possible.

Thats an important point and to be honest I do not know how you want to compensate that missing data. You don't get it from the market and you of course cannot make it up so there is not really an option to compensate that comes to my mind. EU, China, SR, MR, leasing add to it and I just named a few levers.

This is the point people tried to explain and its not a critic to you work but just simple statistics reality. All what people are saying here is that your model is getting by default less accurate just because of the situation.

No offense to you, actually quite the opposite but I wonder why you say you compensate for it?

 

[sparcs]

New lows for the day 301.84... edit: now 301.50

 

[elasalle]

.

Thanks for your reply and finally an explanation at least to a certain extend but allow me to I have a different opinion about the 3 projection in the US and international. I like the comparison from non reservation to reservation orders as this explains where you come from but it assumed the situation to remain static instead of dynamic and that's a modeling thats a simplification which makes the calculation possible but less correct if not even false.

I like your data driven model but have my questions to what extend it is valid today as it has been valid in the past which has to do with the amount of reporting in relation to the amount of produced and delivered cars. I guess you have seen the statistics. Just my view on statistical relevance. Data points are decreasing but you may still be right however its less likely.

To explain a second point: The reason why I believe your model is not any longer as valid as its been is because its literally impossible to predict market demand in EU and China where not sales and no VIN sporting did happen yet. So how do you assume demand in other continents with no data? If its by using the US data than my question would be if you have been in Europe before and how well you know that market? The same applies for China.

Other questions: How did you come up with a shrinking 50% for the US market ? Do you believe the demand recorded will behave like it did for the LR once the SR comes out and what will happen to the demand once leasing happened or other options Tesla can pull to push demand?

If demand in the US is as weak as you predict in 2019 why did Tesla not do any efforts to create demand like for instance leasing already? Why is the production line still ramping up if demand for the 3 internationally+US will remain almost the same?

Again lots of respect for your work and congrats to an astounding accuracy I just believe that the method used in the past is for statistical accurate reasons including assumptions that will not apply in 2019 not valid in markets like EU and China and secondly not in the US as you need to factor in more levers Tesla can pull in case demand gets weak.

Your US model calculation assumes a static situation e.g. no SR in the near future and no leasing at and despite other option Tesla has.

Still very happy to have your data and many thanks for all the efforts you put in. Clearly a big asset for all of us!

Still too many statistical question are not answered to make your 2019 model a viable one for me and too many assumptions in your model that IMHO won't apply in 2019.

Time will tell who is right...

2c. In M3 2019 production is only 285K, than China GF is not really necessary? If it is for tariff reasons, then at 285K global M3 rate(i.e. 5K/wk global ) .. Fremont will be churning out MY by the end of 2019 ?? ~ cheers !!

 

[KarenRei]

.


2c. In M3 2019 production is only 285K, than China GF is not really necessary? If it is for tariff reasons, then at 285K global M3 rate(i.e. 5K/wk global ) .. Fremont will be churning out MY by the end of 2019 ?? ~ cheers !!

None of this will transpire. Prod. well greater than 5k/wk, GF3 absolutely needed, MY (Tesla's highest volume vehicle yet) definitely not at overcrowded Fremont.

Tesla couldn't possibly have dropped more signs that they're planning on turning GF1 into a full "gigafactory" (e.g. including car production). It's their plans for all GFs going forward, their obsession with completing all steps in a single facility, they've talked about expanding beyond their design footprint, about huge employeecounts that require them to build their own neighborhoods, etc etc. Perhaps some cheap GM factories coming on the market might change that calculus, but I doubt even that.

What can be said: MY is far too high volume fór overcrowded Fremont.

 

[avoigt]

.


2c. In M3 2019 production is only 285K, than China GF is not really necessary? If it is for tariff reasons, then at 285K global M3 rate(i.e. 5K/wk global ) .. Fremont will be churning out MY by the end of 2019 ?? ~ cheers !!

With the production level of the 3 we have in Fremont today you could supply the world if we do not go beyond Troys prediction but I believe we will .... already next year. BTW Elon even said that the demand for the 3 could exceed 700k.

Elons plan is to produce cars near consumers and called shipping batteries overseas no good before. Thats why they plan GF in all continents. If you have a production in full swing you don't change it to a different model unless you have to. Its just not efficient.

Automakers played the scenarios where to produce best for decades and they all came over time to the same conclusion that if you have a mass produced car you produce very close to the consumer.

Having said that I expect over time 3 and Y which I call mass produced cars in the respective GF in US, EU and China. S and X as well as Roadster 2 will likely be different. Pick up depends on regional demand.

 

[EVNow]

OT :

Perhaps some cheap GM factories coming on the market might change that calculus, but I doubt even that.

It doesn't have to. Tesla can still expand the GM factory to include a battery plant on location. They could even ask LG to make the cells in MI and build the batteries on site. If Nissan goes into a tailspin because of all the drama around Ghosn, their TN plant would be a prime pickup opportunity. Biggest in US with a battery plant on location.

In 5 years time, Tesla will need multiple car & battery plants in US.

 

[Buckminster]

Correct. 50% is a good estimate. It's important to differentiate between backlog and sustainable demand. Those are not the same thing. Here is a chart that shows orders by reservation holders vs non-reservation holders:

Here is another chart that shows deliveries to reservation holders vs non-reservation holders:

This data is public in my survey. Column E on the 'All Entries' tab here shows reservation status.


That's not correct. I tweeted about not confusing backlog with sustainable demand here.



No, here is what actually happened:

I estimated 292K Model 3 prod in 2019 here. ValueAnalyst didn't like that. Apparently, he estimates 410K (see this tweet). I said I hope you are right and they make 410K and asked him to add his estimate to a survey about this where the accuracy of each entry will be measured (see my tweet). So far 38 people have submitted estimates for Q1 2019 and entire 2019 HERE but ValueAnalyst is not one of them. On Twitter, you need to look at replies as well to see the whole discussion.




It's unsportsmanlike to criticize other people's estimates without providing your own. If you have different estimates in mind for 2019 and Q1 2019, you can enter them HERE. The accuracy of all entries will be measured when we find out the actual numbers.

Relevant links:

• Tesla Production and Delivery Estimates 69 people participated so far. In past quarters, the average was pretty close to actual numbers. Apparently, some people overestimate and some underestimate and it balances out.
• Teslike Model 3 Order Tracker #4 See the Production and Delivery tabs for latest Q4 estimates. I will do a detailed look and update the estimates by the end of the quarter. These two tabs will show the final estimates on 31st Dec. I'm waiting to see if there will be production in the last few days.
  
• My Twitter: @TroyTeslike. I will also tweet my final estimates for Q4 before the end of the quarter.

If you were Neroden, I would say:

However, to you, I say; "use the force". The force will lead you to an increased estimate...

 

[SteveG3]

All- please don't miss every chance to put Tesla on the minds of 50-60 friends-of-friends every time one your social media friends posts photos of their brand new ICE car by replying something like:
____________________
I'm happy you got a new car, but wish I'd known you were shopping... Cars that burn dinosaur juice are obsolete before you leave the dealer. I drove my new Tesla X over 7,000 miles and it blows away every other car there is. I'll never buy gas, I just plug in at home overnight. Teslas have a 5-Star safety rating, and my base model goes 0-60 MPH in 5.5 seconds, and Teslas have great resale value. There are charging stations all over the country, and the new medium range Model 3 is more affordable and even better than my car.

If you try to trade your dinosaur-juice burner in in the next 5 - 10 years, at the rate electric vehicle popularity is growing most new cars (and soon trucks) will be electric, I'm afraid nobody will give you much for anything that still burns gas or diesel. Friends don't let friends buy anything but Teslas.
____________________
I'd love a place we could discuss, edit, and refine the above post for maximum effect so all we have to do is copy and paste. IMHO this is more relevant than the advertising discussions; each of us can spread the word to thousands of folks right now for free. What's the simplest, most informative and impressive webpage link to include in posts like this?

-Apologies if this is a bit Off Topic, is there already a thread for this?

MODERATOR- how could we get TMC to offer a way each member could manually click and hide individual posts they rather not see again, with the number of each poster's cumulative hidden post "hides" showing next to each member's name or on their profile? This would be incredibly useful feedback altering posters' behavior and make the site much easier to use.

I have my doubts that this would effect sentiment in the direction you are intending.

 

[JollyRoger]

Hoping for a decent finish to the day, back to 315 or 320. No reason for such a swing but nothing out of the normal I guess strong support at 301