Ugh. Another Model S fire - 2013-11-06

[jomo25]

This is the best proposed solution i've heard yet.

1. Raise the highway suspension height a little bit.

2. Clearly the majority of plating needs to be up front. The armored plating could actually be tapered, so that it becomes thinner the further back you go. Nobody's going to be driving 70 mph backward. Concentrate the thickest plating up front, and taper off. That could even result in a REDUCTION in weight of the car, despite stronger protection in the areas that matter.

While the thinning makes logical sense, it's may not be worth it. If you're gonna make a change, make it a thorough one. I'm sure there are scenarios where the middle of the pack could be violated (especially if the leading edge is further enhanced, I.e. The object doesn't penetrate the front, but then gets lodged further back).

But otherwise like the idea. And while it might cost more (a Kevlar estimate was proposed earlier), my guess is its small in comparison to the cost of the vehicle,and the cost due to perception/PR.

 

[10pele]

Perhaps. I have a LEAF and Model S and recently got rid of my Porsche. There's a local mountain road, Angeles Crest that is a fun drive. Being a mountain road, there's often rock debris in the roadway.

The Porsche was low enough that I had to be very careful since the preponderance of rocks left in the roadway were too low to be hit and cleared by most of the other cars that preceded me but would damage the underside of my Porsche. With the LEAF, I never had a problem since it's ground clearance is quite good and went over everything in my path. So far, my standard suspension Model S has cleared everything it came across on that road. Maybe with the air suspension, Model S is just low enough at highway speeds to skew the stats for debris collisions.

I ordered my 85 S in Oct., after "Seattle". The choice I made for the non-air suspension was partially based on the road clearance guaranteed when using the spring system. Delivery is in Dec....still
committed to this but looking for comfort in the forum.

 

[WarpedOne]

Unfortunately as some have pointed out the actual statistics, whatever they may be, are irrelevant, perception is reality.
Yeah and world is already full of stupid bills.
It is not truth nor logic that drives this world, private interests and fear it is.

Tesla needs to turn this thing into their own interest. The must explain logically that current design is OK or at least on par with other cars - back it up with statistics and some random pictures from google.
Then they need to announce and demonstrate improvements that will raise the bar on safety even higher. Not only 5.4 stars but 6.4 (just kidding).
It should not be too hard to add a bullbar under front lower lip strong enough to catch road debris. This should be vehicle lowest point so it wont damage the cooling lines. Battery is already strong enough.

 

[DaveT]

Hey guys, I posted my comments on the 3rd fire here:

Why Tesla's 3rd fire is not the end of the world

 

[yngwie_2012]

Somebody please call tesla investor relations and ask when the blog is coming .we need a painkiller blog from elon musk.

 

[jerry33]

Anyone know the difference in road clearance between Standard suspension and Air suspension @ lowest setting?

Air suspension:

Normal height = 6”
High Level 1 = 0.90” taller; When the vehicle accelerates above 19 mph, the clearance adjusts back to Normal height.
High level 2 = 1.3” above Standard and can be used for ascending a steep driveway or fording deep snow. Clearance reverts to High Level 1 above 10 mph.
Low Level = 0.79” under Standard; Active Air Suspension will automatically lower the vehicle for highway driving to improve aerodynamics. Low Level is also accessible from the touchscreen for loading/unloading of passengers. When the vehicle begins driving the clearance adjusts back to Normal height.


Standard suspension:

• 6.6"

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

…/ What is more, /.../ as I have said, it is a probablem of perception. Tesla is getting a bad rep and needs to fix that.

But is there a problem? Or is it merely your opinion? And to me, your opinion is quite frankly not worth very much – if anything at all. I’d take the opinions and analysis of Mario, neroden, Doug_G and flybob08 over yours anyday!

Here’s a poll that suggests merely a somewhat minor problem among current owners:

How Many Owners Would Buy Again, Given the latest fire information?

And if folks continue to buy Teslas, to the extent that Tesla continues to be production constrained, then is there really a problem? Doesn’t seem like it to me.


Edit:

Looking at this post again, I now see how this can be seen as missing something. I do of course agree that Tesla should do some sort of PR-get-together and explain why this fire started, and why it doesn’t/(or if it does) need to be addressed.

 

[brianman]

Nobody's going to be driving 70 mph backward.

Right. Because there's a limiter at somewhere around 15mph, or so I hear.

 

[JRP3]

Do we know it happened at the front? Remember the pack is designed to vent to the front, but in both of these cases the pack could have been damaged further back as the debris tumbled (aka the pole vault effect mentioned in the first fire).

I did say "assuming" front impacts, I don't think we yet know for sure. Also I thought the pack was designed to vent down, and the assumption that it vents to the front was in error.

 

[Shumdit]

I did say "assuming" front impacts, I don't think we yet know for sure. Also I thought the pack was designed to vent down, and the assumption that it vents to the front was in error.

I actually don't know if it vents to the front. I read it somewhere when the first accident was being discussed, but as we all know there is a LOT of misinformation out there. Not arguing with you, just bringing up a possible problem with that solution. I hope you understand where I am coming from.

 

[JRP3]

Air suspension:

Normal height = 6”

Low Level = 0.79” under Standard; Active Air Suspension will automatically lower the vehicle for highway driving to improve aerodynamics.


Standard suspension:

• 6.6"

So at highway speeds the air suspension car is riding 1.39 inches lower, which is a fair amount.

 

[Shumdit]

Style points on this word choice for an EV forum.

Thanks, I'll be here all week...

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Air suspension:

Normal height = 6”
High Level 1 = 0.90” taller; When the vehicle accelerates above 19 mph, the clearance adjusts back to Normal height.
High level 2 = 1.3” above Standard and can be used for ascending a steep driveway or fording deep snow. Clearance reverts to High Level 1 above 10 mph.
Low Level = 0.79” under Standard; Active Air Suspension will automatically lower the vehicle for highway driving to improve aerodynamics. Low Level is also accessible from the touchscreen for loading/unloading of passengers. When the vehicle begins driving the clearance adjusts back to Normal height.


Standard suspension:

• 6.6"

For comparison, ground clearance on

BMW 5-series: 5.6"

2013 BMW 5 Series 528i Sedan 2.0L 4-cyl. Turbo 8-speed Automatic Features and Specs

Merc S-class: 5.8"

2013 Mercedes-Benz S-Class Base S600 4dr Sedan

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Unfortunately as some have pointed out the actual statistics, whatever they may be, are irrelevant, perception is reality.
Yeah and world is already full of stupid bills.
It is not truth nor logic that drives this world, private interests and fear it is. /…

Why make the world a worse place than it already is?

I’m convinced that you’re familiar with the concept of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Or with a ‘fancier’ expression:

Thomas theorem - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

If [folks] define situations as real, they are real in their consequences.

I actually think that people that can afford to buy a Model S, X or Gen3 are smarter than some here seem to believe.

 

[Shumdit]

I actually think that people that can afford to buy a Model S, X and Gen3 are smarter than some here give seem to believe.

Dang, I could only afford the model s so I must be sort of dim-witted.

 

[rolosrevenge]

Wow this thread has spiraled out of control. I just wanted to mention that my initial guess of an accident was wrong and the image in the photos posted was in fact a reflection. So I was wrong this time on my initial hypothesis.

Now onto some statistical analysis of vehicle fires and Tesla ... We don't have enough data to draw any conclusions. Three fires in a two month period of time out of 20,000 cars on the road for less than a year cannot be compared to ICE vehicle statistics which are several orders of magnitude larger both in the size of the fleet, number of fires, and years on the road. Additionally clustering of events like this means nothing in a 10 year analysis of Model S fires which cannot be made at this time. While the layperson may be dismayed and see an ominous pattern in these events, those who do data analysis for a living do not. Lots of people have a vested interest in seeing the Telsa stock fall (myself included I want to buy more) and some of them (myself excluded, I have integrity) will use anything negative thing that happens to further their own interests.

 

[RoverS]

i don't know about no burnin-up Tesla.

all i know is, at 50 pages, this thread is on FIYAAAAA!!!!!

 

[rolosrevenge]

Please everyone stop raping the statistics. The ICE fires are in the thousands and their distribution is governed by the normal distribution that most of your statistics are based on. The Model S statistics are so low that it's governed by Poisson statistics and that has completely different characteristics. I deal with low probability events daily (Higgs search at LHC) and have had to handle the differences and you can't believe how much difference there is. Your math here has error bars that are so huge that you cannot draw any conclusions really. In Poisson statistics 0-2 events are statistically inseparable so even if you expect 0 events and observe 2 you cannot claim disparity between the two measurements. With three you start to get somewhere, but only if you really expected 0 in the first place. If you expect even one (or worse ca 3), then one to about six events are fully compatible (or one to ten). You can start using your normal statistics when the number of incidents expected is largish i.e. my statistics teacher used to say that 30 and infinity are about the same, it's not quite that simple, but around that region the Poisson starts to converge towards the normal distribution...

so overall I'd have to do some more complex math and not going to do this from my iPad in bed, but three or one fires make no statistical difference at this point. They do however make a world of difference to public perception especially due to nearness in time. Physics is full of freaky occurrences where unlikely events happen at start and are averaged out over time. We almost claimed discovery in 2011 of a new particle when events started to pop up at high mass with a subtantial gap to anything expected. We expected ca 0.1 events and saw 3 in a very short timeframe all together. Papers were written and taistics were debated as it was borderline close to discovery threshold. For safety it was conceded that a fourth event would lock this down hard so the papers etc were held ready and a special priority analysis was run almost live on new data daily, some people didn't sleep for a week as this was big (fundamental physics changing big). Int he end the event didn't come. After a couple of weeks we went from red alarm to orange to yellow to green as background expectations caught up and we went from 99.9% probability down to 95% to 68% and dropped further. Statistical fluctuations happen, but nature takes care of it over time...

He said it better than me.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

…/ I actually think that people that can afford to buy a Model S, X and Gen3 are smarter than some here seem to believe.

Dang, I could only afford the model s so I must be sort of dim-witted.

Why? The S is included in the quote.

 

[rolosrevenge]

Mario, no offense, but there is no way to confirm any of what you are saying. That is the problem with trotting out credentials online. It is better to just make a real argument and let it stand or fall on its merits rather than to provide some vagaries backed up with references to your credentials.

I have a Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering and was at Teslive so anyone else who was there can vouch for my credentials. I think Mario's analysis is spot on.