Place to record the production ramping performance for new vehicles starting with CT:
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Vehicle ramp discussion
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
Reflecting on this, I think the west side end of line expansion and the 64 new Superchargers might be more important that we realise.
They seem to be allocating 4 stalls to CT charging, and the rest seem to be Model Y..
I think this is because of the need to keep pace with model Y production..
They don't work over the weekend and I think the charging and logistics mostly catches up over the weekend.
Assuming 30 mins per charge they can charge 48 CTs per day, the pile up of CTs in the lot is because production is at a higher rate.
On that basis, I would estimate production to be 80-100 CTs. per day.
So they will soon be at 500 per week.. Once the west side lot is finished (and they can hire staff) they may start working weekends.
A new CT line is being added in June, with sufficient cells, we might see something line:-
They seem to be allocating 4 stalls to CT charging, and the rest seem to be Model Y..
I think this is because of the need to keep pace with model Y production..
They don't work over the weekend and I think the charging and logistics mostly catches up over the weekend.
Assuming 30 mins per charge they can charge 48 CTs per day, the pile up of CTs in the lot is because production is at a higher rate.
On that basis, I would estimate production to be 80-100 CTs. per day.
So they will soon be at 500 per week.. Once the west side lot is finished (and they can hire staff) they may start working weekends.
A new CT line is being added in June, with sufficient cells, we might see something line:-
- 1,000 CTs per week by May
- 2,000 CTs per week by August.
- 3,000 CTs per week by the end of the year.
A Tesla staff member commented on a Joe T. X post that another increase in CT production should be coming soon.
I think we can fairly safely round Model S/X, Model 3/Y, CT and Semi production numbers at existing factories up to 3 million when all lines at all factories are fully ramped and optimised.
IMO Gen3 production at Auston could add another 500K.
Gen3 production at Berlin could add 500K.
Mexico phase 1 - 1 million.
So I have got to 5 million out of 20 million.
I think a Gen3 factory can go from a building site to 1 million cars per year in 3 years.
Mexico will probably have a phase 2 which adds another 1 million?
Existing factory sites which could see further expansion, Austin, Sparks, Shanghai.
I'm probably up to 9 million now...
Elon stated 20 million by 2030 was still a target, I think existing production capacity and cash reserves will fund the required expansion in production.
Tesla also needs sites, engineers, workers, batteries and/or battery raw materials.
I think we can fairly safely round Model S/X, Model 3/Y, CT and Semi production numbers at existing factories up to 3 million when all lines at all factories are fully ramped and optimised.
IMO Gen3 production at Auston could add another 500K.
Gen3 production at Berlin could add 500K.
Mexico phase 1 - 1 million.
So I have got to 5 million out of 20 million.
I think a Gen3 factory can go from a building site to 1 million cars per year in 3 years.
Mexico will probably have a phase 2 which adds another 1 million?
Existing factory sites which could see further expansion, Austin, Sparks, Shanghai.
I'm probably up to 9 million now...
Elon stated 20 million by 2030 was still a target, I think existing production capacity and cash reserves will fund the required expansion in production.
Tesla also needs sites, engineers, workers, batteries and/or battery raw materials.
Agreed,
I think Gen3 factories will be a cut-and-paste... with the same car designs so less design engineering for the car and the factory.
I also think Elon has a sketchy high level plan that goes close 20 Million vehicle capacity by 2030.
These are just some speculative thoughts on possible future Gen3 models.
Semi and Roadster - unchanged. (2)
Cybertruck - close enough to Gen3, stall a case for a smaller CT, (by 2030) a 2 seat model with all dimensions reduced. (2)
Gen3 initial vehicles:-
For redesigns of earlier vehicle platforms I'm also adding additional new models which are built first:-
Model S/X Gen3 redesign (6)
Tesla is still skewed towards medium / large sizer vehicles.
Some of the vehicles on the roadmap are built after 2030..
By the time the Gen3 refresh is done the exiting Model S/X and Model 3/Y lines have been running for over 20 years and are close enough to end of life.
By 2030 there are 7 new models with an additional 5 new models coming after 2030.
My main point is that Gen3 versions of Gen1/Gen2 cars are possible, and there is plenty of scope to introduce new models.
Why do d I think Tesla can now introduce new models at a relative rapid cadence..?
The unboxed process makes it easier to share components, and reduces space and capex...
All of the key technologies have been developed and are proven.
The tools for design are mature, and the team is very experienced.
Some of the complexities that make traditional car manufacturing hard to ramp have been largely removed or simplfied.:-
Semi and Roadster - unchanged. (2)
Cybertruck - close enough to Gen3, stall a case for a smaller CT, (by 2030) a 2 seat model with all dimensions reduced. (2)
Gen3 initial vehicles:-
- Small hatch back possibly a 2 -seat car with a stretch 4-seat model (2) (by 2025)
- Small van of similar dimensions possibly a stretch version. (2) (by 2026)
For redesigns of earlier vehicle platforms I'm also adding additional new models which are built first:-
Model S/X Gen3 redesign (6)
- Large van similar to a Sprinter. (Also a mini/camper van) (by 2028)
- Conventional SUV (by 2030)
- Flatbed truck
- Station wagon
- Gen3 Model S
- Gen3 Model X
- Couple
- Hatchback
- Midsize van..
- Gen3 Model 3
- Gen 3 Model Y
Tesla is still skewed towards medium / large sizer vehicles.
Some of the vehicles on the roadmap are built after 2030..
By the time the Gen3 refresh is done the exiting Model S/X and Model 3/Y lines have been running for over 20 years and are close enough to end of life.
By 2030 there are 7 new models with an additional 5 new models coming after 2030.
My main point is that Gen3 versions of Gen1/Gen2 cars are possible, and there is plenty of scope to introduce new models.
Why do d I think Tesla can now introduce new models at a relative rapid cadence..?
The unboxed process makes it easier to share components, and reduces space and capex...
All of the key technologies have been developed and are proven.
The tools for design are mature, and the team is very experienced.
Some of the complexities that make traditional car manufacturing hard to ramp have been largely removed or simplfied.:-
- Body shop
- Monolith paint
- Monolith GA with difficult access.
- Steering and hydraulics.
- Wiring harness.,
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An additional consideration is Gen3 provides scope for Berlin and Shanghai to become more involved in new vehicle design..
That is because they are designing within well defined constraints, with mature tools and with Fremont and Austin checking their homework.
it is the right time to build up engineering and design skills in Berlin and Shanghai.
That is because they are designing within well defined constraints, with mature tools and with Fremont and Austin checking their homework.
it is the right time to build up engineering and design skills in Berlin and Shanghai.
Thanks, just trying to put a bit of thought into what is possible...
But the mods might rule me out for the typos....
I will post a cleaned up consolidated version below..
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These are just some speculative thoughts on possible future Gen3 models.
Semi and Roadster - unchanged. (2)
Cybertruck - close enough to Gen3, still a case for a smaller CT, (by 2030) a 2 seat model with all dimensions reduced. (2)
Gen3 initial vehicles:-
For redesigns of earlier vehicle platforms I'm also adding additional new models which are built first:-
Model S/X Gen3 redesign (6)
Tesla is still skewed towards medium / larger size vehicles.
Some of the vehicles on the roadmap are built after 2030..
By the time the Gen3 refresh is done the existing Model S/X and Model 3/Y lines have been running for over 20 years and are close enough to end of life.
By 2030 there are 7 new models with an additional 5 new models coming after 2030.
My main point is that Gen3 versions of Gen1/Gen2 cars are possible, and there is plenty of scope to introduce new models.
Why do I think Tesla can now introduce new models at a relatively rapid cadence?
The unboxed process makes it easier to share components, and reduces space and capex...
All of the key technologies have been developed and are proven.
The tools for design are mature, and the team is very experienced.
Some of the complexities that make traditional car manufacturing hard to ramp have been largely removed or simplified.:-
That is because they are designing within well defined constraints, with mature tools and with Fremont and Austin checking their homework.
it is the right time to build up engineering and design skills in Berlin and Shanghai.
Semi and Roadster - unchanged. (2)
Cybertruck - close enough to Gen3, still a case for a smaller CT, (by 2030) a 2 seat model with all dimensions reduced. (2)
Gen3 initial vehicles:-
- Small hatch back possibly a 2 -seat car with a stretch 4-seat model (2) (by 2025)
- Small van of similar dimensions possibly a stretch version. (2) (by 2026)
For redesigns of earlier vehicle platforms I'm also adding additional new models which are built first:-
Model S/X Gen3 redesign (6)
- Large van similar to a Sprinter. (Also a mini/camper van) (by 2028)
- Conventional SUV (by 2030)
- Flatbed truck
- Station wagon
- Gen3 Model S
- Gen3 Model X
- Coupe
- Hatchback
- Midsize van..
- Gen3 Model 3
- Gen 3 Model Y
Tesla is still skewed towards medium / larger size vehicles.
Some of the vehicles on the roadmap are built after 2030..
By the time the Gen3 refresh is done the existing Model S/X and Model 3/Y lines have been running for over 20 years and are close enough to end of life.
By 2030 there are 7 new models with an additional 5 new models coming after 2030.
My main point is that Gen3 versions of Gen1/Gen2 cars are possible, and there is plenty of scope to introduce new models.
Why do I think Tesla can now introduce new models at a relatively rapid cadence?
The unboxed process makes it easier to share components, and reduces space and capex...
All of the key technologies have been developed and are proven.
The tools for design are mature, and the team is very experienced.
Some of the complexities that make traditional car manufacturing hard to ramp have been largely removed or simplified.:-
- Body shop
- Monolithic paint
- Monolithic GA with difficult access.
- Steering and hydraulics.
- Wiring harness.,
That is because they are designing within well defined constraints, with mature tools and with Fremont and Austin checking their homework.
it is the right time to build up engineering and design skills in Berlin and Shanghai.
I was really surprised looking at Jeff Roberts' video today just how much CT production has jumped from yesterday and Monday. It looks like a 3x increase in production with only a ~2x increase in production-hold units. Production-hold units seem to generally clear out on the weekends, but the reduction suggests the line is being dialed in better.
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