Volvo, following Tesla, doesn't beat EV with ugly stick

[EinSV]

Basically it's 50k for two EVs, since the Polestar 1, the PHEV, is limited to 500 units a year. But since Volvo will apparently get their own EVs, which by definition will compete with Tesla, I do think the Polestar vehicles will take on the higher trim Teslas, P versions and so, while the lower trim versions will be covered by Volvo.

Otherwise Volvo and Polestar vehicles would compete directly, which is not a good idea for two cars on the same dealer lot. My guess is that the Polestar vehicles will look slightly different, more sexy, less practical, come with more performance and a higher price tag.

I don't think two EVs with less than 50k sales each would be profitable, unless sold at a very high premium, or shared components with higher volume EVs.

With no Model S competitor and a Model 3 competitor with very low volumes -- probably something like ~25-35K leaving 15-25K for the SUV -- it looks like Polestar will not really be competitive in any meaningful sense. It will provide an option for people who don't like Tesla styling, tech or whatever but they obviously don't expect to sell many -- probably less than the Bolt.

For the Volvo brand, we don't have many specifics yet but here is a description of the platform Volvo is using for its first EV:

The 40.2 will be based on Volvo’s new Compact Modular Architecture (CMA), which underpins the firm’s smaller products and those of its Chinese parent company Geely and accommodates all types of powertrains, including electric. First electric Volvo to be an all-new hatchback due in 2019 | Autocar
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Adapting an ICE platform (from Geely's small car line-up) to produce an EV pretty much ensures you won't have an optimal EV design.

The anemic Polestar sales forecast suggests that to protect profits Geely will price both the Polestar and Volvo EVs higher than competitive Volvo ICE vehicles to avoid cutting into sales of more profitable ICE cars. Selling overpriced EVs means they won't sell many. Classic short-sighted solution to the innovator's dilemma.

Bottom line: so far it looks like Volvo will end up with something like a more upscale version of the Bolt - a decent but overpriced vehicle that will sell at low volumes compared to what it could if Geely went all-in on EVs with its Volvo brand.

The good news is that competition from Tesla and regulators keeps forcing the incumbents to move up their EV timetables. I think that will continue but Volvo/Polestar's plans so far are unimpressive IMO.

 

[R.S]

With no Model S competitor and a Model 3 competitor with very low volumes -- probably something like ~25-35K leaving 15-25K for the SUV -- it looks like Polestar will not really be competitive in any meaningful sense. It will provide an option for people who don't like Tesla styling, tech or whatever but they obviously don't expect to sell many -- probably less than the Bolt.

For the Volvo brand, we don't have many specifics yet but here is a description of the platform Volvo is using for its first EV:

The 40.2 will be based on Volvo’s new Compact Modular Architecture (CMA), which underpins the firm’s smaller products and those of its Chinese parent company Geely and accommodates all types of powertrains, including electric. First electric Volvo to be an all-new hatchback due in 2019 | Autocar
​

Adapting an ICE platform (from Geely's small car line-up) to produce an EV pretty much ensures you won't have an optimal EV design.

The anemic Polestar sales forecast suggests that to protect profits Geely will price both the Polestar and Volvo EVs higher than competitive Volvo ICE vehicles to avoid cutting into sales of more profitable ICE cars. Selling overpriced EVs means they won't sell many. Classic short-sighted solution to the innovator's dilemma.

Bottom line: so far it looks like Volvo will end up with something like a more upscale version of the Bolt - a decent but overpriced vehicle that will sell at low volumes compared to what it could if Geely went all-in on EVs with its Volvo brand.

The good news is that competition from Tesla and regulators keeps forcing the incumbents to move up their EV timetables. I think that will continue but Volvo/Polestar's plans so far are unimpressive IMO.

All of that is based on a lot of speculation. Who knows how high volume the Volvo electric's volume will be.

A shared platform doesn't sound too good, though. VW's MEB approach seems like the best, but VW has the volume and money to do a fully scalable EV platform, not sure if Volvo can afford that.

 

[EinSV]

All of that is based on a lot of speculation. Who knows how high volume the Volvo electric's volume will be.

A shared platform doesn't sound too good, though. VW's MEB approach seems like the best, but VW has the volume and money to do a fully scalable EV platform, not sure if Volvo can afford that.

Just being realistic. Since the production target for the "Model 3 competitor" is a disappointing ~25-35K cars five years down the road, expecting big things from the V40 modified to an EV seems like wishful thinking.