Was There Ever, Or Will There Ever Be, a $35K Model 3?

[Eric S]

I've had a deposit in for quite some time now, and been patiently waiting for the $35,000 model.

I haven't been keeping up with news, and just went to Tesla.com, and discovered that a $32,200 model is available. But it costs $46,000. Because they factored in gas savings and incentives. Maybe I should list my $400K house for $335K to reflect your savings due to its gas (not oil) furnace.

So: is/was an actual $35,000 Model 3 ever coming, or is this it?

 

[jkoya]

Maybe I should list my $400K house for $335K to reflect your savings due to its gas (not oil) furnace.

I like your analogy, it's right on.

 

[CameronB]

Was there ever a 35K USD Model 3?

No. Not as of yet.

Will there ever be a 35K Model 3?

Unknown but hopeful. Elon has reiterated multiple times that they are striving to build and deliver that. He has also said more than once that if they could build that car (profitably) already they would be. But they can't yet, so they aren't. Latest news via Electrek (who obtained a leaked memo to Tesla employees) is that the current cost to Tesla to build the cheapest Model 3 with standard range battery is $38,000. While I would suspect that Tesla might (or might have to) accept a lower profit margin than what they are getting on the long range, dual motor and Performance variations, obviously Tesla needs to make some profit on even the cheapest configuration. So...they will have to get their costs down further before they can make and sell (profitably) the standard range Model 3. But from all reports, they are doing their level best to make that happen. Only time will tell if they are successful. I believe ultimately they will...though the timeframe is the bigger variable in my mind. They are saying "within about 6 months".

 

[Darren Donovan]

I've had a deposit in for quite some time now, and been patiently waiting for the $35,000 model.

I haven't been keeping up with news, and just went to Tesla.com, and discovered that a $32,200 model is available. But it costs $46,000. Because they factored in gas savings and incentives. Maybe I should list my $400K house for $335K to reflect your savings due to its gas (not oil) furnace.

So: is/was an actual $35,000 Model 3 ever coming, or is this it?

Some good reading here:

Musk: $35,000 Model 3 would cost $38,000 to make right now.

 

[PhatCat]

Very good question, OP. I don't see Tesla selling the 35K base model until both of the following happen.

(1) They are forced to sell the 35K car because no one is left left to pay for the more expensive--and profitable--configurations. Many folks, like myself, who had originally intended to hold out for the 35K car have caved and bought an upgraded car. But not everyone will.

(2) They can sell the 35K car profitably. Elon recently said it would currently cost 38K to produce the base car now. There is some debate over whether he meant the raw cost of production or this is what they would have to sell the car at to maintain profitability. Nevertheless, they are clearly not there yet.

My take based on everything I've read here and elsewhere is that these two conditions will not be met until the 2nd half of next year, at the earliest. This means the federal tax credit will be 1875 at most when they finally sell the 35K base.

 

[BluestarE3]

Well, when you see a Model 3 with the Standard Range (SR) battery and the Premium Upgrade Package (PUP) available, then it's a sign that the $35,000 model is a step closer to fruition.

 

[Eric S]

What I'm asking is whether the currently advertised $32K model (actually $46k) is, in Tesla's eyes, the under $35K model. I'm trying to parse their baffling internal logic. Being mentally healthy, it's tough going.

Even more confusing, some Tesla dealer woman from NJ keeps emailing, texting, and calling, telling me to buy now or else request a deposit refund.

 

[Troy]

A few days ago, in a leaked email to employees, Elon said the $35K car would cost $38K to produce if they produced it now. See the article here. The Model 3 configurator on the Tesla website says "Standard Battery available in 4-6 months" just below where you select MR/LR AWD/P.

• I suspect it will be delayed until Q3 2019 because they will be busy with EU and China orders. I have looked at current backlog numbers, current production numbers and the new order rate. There is a chance SR production could start in Sep or Oct 2019. However, it's better to revisit this topic 6 months from now.
• Also, I suspect that the $5,000 Premium Upgrades Package might be still mandatory. It has been mandatory for all Model 3s since they started production. The PUP package became also mandatory for S/X over time.
• In addition, I think SR might be limited to only those who reserved the Model 3 between 31 March 2016 and 26 June 2018 when reservations were open.
• Recently Tesla has sent out emails to buyers in China. In that email they said initial orders will be available only to existing owners and only the Long Range versions will be available to order initially. See the article here. To me, that suggests that Tesla wants to encourage Mid-Range buyers to order a Long Range version. Similarly, this strategy will encourage Standard Range buyers to order a Mid-Range version after the MR becomes available to overseas buyers. It looks like they are actively trying to reduce the number of reservation holders waiting for the SR version. Buyers who take delivery after 30 June 2018 will get $1,875 USD federal tax credits instead of $3,750. Therefore it SR is not available by then, many reservation holders will just buy the MR version.

 

[gecko10x]

What I'm asking is whether the currently advertised $32K model (actually $46k) is, in Tesla's eyes, the under $35K model.

No.

 

[Eric S]

It looks like they are actively trying to reduce the number of reservation holders waiting for the SR version

More like scrambling to reduce. But I agree with your read of the tea leaves....

 

[roblab]

If you wait long enough, you'll be able to buy a more cheaply outfitted 3. You know you will. If you wait long enough. I didn't want to wait, and got my 3 in January, near 11 months ago. Knowing I'd be buying one, I set aside money every month from my retirement and paid cash. Having bought Tesla before, I expected it to cost about half of a Model S. It turned out to be exactly half. I'm glad I paid extra and got my car a year ahead of all those who preferred to wait to pay less. Worth it to me.

People who have not dealt with Tesla are a little shocked with "long waits", but I waited 6 years to get my first one, after a down payment of $40,000 (made by selling my RAV4EV). Things are very different now. There were no superchargers then, no air shocks, no dual motors, etc., etc., and more etc. Just hang in there. It will come. Or you'll decide you'd rather have PUP and LR battery and specialty paint and dual motors, etc., etc. again.

 

[ewoodrick]

So, as Tesla still scrambles to be a profitable business, one may assume that the cheapest car will be the last car to be produced, and won't be produced until it is profitable to do so. (Elon just indicated that the $35k car would cost $38l to make today). Production and manufacturing savings have to ramp up some more.

And while the length of the waiting queue hasn't been talked about in a LONG time, I believe that 150,000 cars sold is getting close. 500,000 reservations - 150,000 currently sold = 350,000 yet to be delivered. We've now been in high production for about 9 months. The rate is increasing, just passed 1,000 / wk. So, maybe about 350 weeks to go ?????

So maybe the math doesn't hold up right now, even if production is tripled, it's well into next year before the base model becomes available.

But remember, if you attempt to get one by the end, that's $7500 tax credit, as opposed to the $1875 tax credit 2nd half next year.

 

[Cuttymybuddy]

So, as Tesla still scrambles to be a profitable business, one may assume that the cheapest car will be the last car to be produced, and won't be produced until it is profitable to do so. (Elon just indicated that the $35k car would cost $38l to make today). Production and manufacturing savings have to ramp up some more.

And while the length of the waiting queue hasn't been talked about in a LONG time, I believe that 150,000 cars sold is getting close. 500,000 reservations - 150,000 currently sold = 350,000 yet to be delivered. We've now been in high production for about 9 months. The rate is increasing, just passed 1,000 / wk. So, maybe about 350 weeks to go ?????

So maybe the math doesn't hold up right now, even if production is tripled, it's well into next year before the base model becomes available.

But remember, if you attempt to get one by the end, that's $7500 tax credit, as opposed to the $1875 tax credit 2nd half next year.

It’s 1k units per day, 7k per week.

 

[jjrandorin]

I've had a deposit in for quite some time now, and been patiently waiting for the $35,000 model.

I haven't been keeping up with news, and just went to Tesla.com, and discovered that a $32,200 model is available. But it costs $46,000. Because they factored in gas savings and incentives. Maybe I should list my $400K house for $335K to reflect your savings due to its gas (not oil) furnace.

So: is/was an actual $35,000 Model 3 ever coming, or is this it?

I think so.. probably next year this time or so.

I also think the pricing on tesla's website currently is really stupid. I dont want to see "price is XXX minus ""Savings" including your savings on gas. Let me figure out that part, or at least put the calculator that they have in the tesla stores right there that lets you input mileage, cost of gas, AND cost per kW since that is VERY different for many of us around the country (we are not paying the "national average of 12 kW" here in california for example).

So I think they will have one, but they will do everything they can to make people not buy it, and it will be actually 35k with no options ... and likely seating thats worse than your budget hyundai or kia, for more expensive than those cars.

By the time they sell the 35k model, I believe some other manufacturers that are working on EVs (like BMW / Merc / VW - Audi - Porsche) will have one too, that might be compelling.