I think we are all playing this game with ICE mindsets. Consider a Model S85 with 3years / 100K miles / 200 mile range. It is this last parameter, 'range' the most significant parameter I would consider.
This is how I would price it:
A new 60 kWh has the same 200 mile range with $70K price tag. In essence I am getting the range of a new S60 with the wear and tear of other components, which in an EV should not be significant. So I would perhaps pay upto 60% of the price of a new S60, which would be $42K. Considering today’s EV market that is a great price. Now let us not confuse with Gen3 which may (or may not) hit the same price target and range, but that is a smaller car without the bells and whistles of an ‘S’.
In other words we could use this formula (I just made it up) for cars that are 50K miles and above on the odo:
Mileage penalty: $0.20 per mile
Range penalty: $250 per mile (from 265 EPA).
So a S85 priced new at $85K, with 100k miles on the odo :
-With 220 mile range would sell at: $48, 750
-With 200 mile range would sell at : $43,750
-With 180 mile range would sell at: $38,750
-With 100 mile range would sell at $18,750
$18K is a steal for 100 mile range EV. So we can perhaps tweak the range penalty with an additional factor to offset that so that an 100 mile range, 100K mikes Model S can be sold at 25K or above.
At the end of the day, it is all about range and less about the miles you have on the odo.
