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What the chances Tesla cars will be self driving in 3 years? Why do you think that way?

What the chances Tesla cars will be self driving in 3 years?


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That just confirms what I said. Pre-planned route, calm traffic, and even then the driver had to take over. It's obvious why they wouldn't let anyone else film.

How many attempts did it take them to make the video?

Again, Tesla is not claiming to have perfect L5 autonomy now. There are bound to be issues. The software is still "alpha". They are just claiming to have made significant progress and to be almost feature complete. The test drives do prove that to be true. While the software is "alpha", it is still able to navigate local roads with intersections and traffic lights and highways, almost entirely hands free, which the current autopilot cannot do.
 
Again, Tesla is not claiming to have perfect L5 autonomy now. There are bound to be issues. The software is still "alpha". They are just claiming to have made significant progress and to be almost feature complete. The test drives do prove that to be true. While the software is "alpha", it is still able to navigate local roads with intersections and traffic lights and highways, almost entirely hands free, which the current autopilot cannot do.

In reality the test drive proves very little about Level 5 feature complete, we have no insight into ther ability to understand complex traffic rules and signs, react to complex obstacles, weather and so forth. We have a fixed fair weather ride.

That said Tesla was clear about Level 5 no geofence being feature complete only at the end of 2019, not yet, so they still have time to get there and then show us.

Then again we’re still waiting for that end of 2017 coast to coast demo.
 
That just confirms what I said. Pre-planned route, calm traffic, and even then the driver had to take over. It's obvious why they wouldn't let anyone else film.

How many attempts did it take them to make the video?

This is from people who went to the event, took the test rides and had a chance to talk to those technical guys afterward. They were amazed of the test performance escpeciall when they heard the neural net had only three months of training. 5:50


I will believe the insurance companies for sure. I have 4 cars currently and my Tesla makes up half of my insurance premium. The Highlander has similar value and is 1/3 the cost to insure. It has primitive L2 features as well. So I suspect the reasons for the high premium in this case is the high cost & great length of Tesla repairs. These rates won't be a reflection of L2 safety for a while.

This is the reason why Tesla is going to have it's own insurance product. It's because insurance companies do not know what are rates should be especially when the FSD and TeslaNet come out. Tesla has/will have the best data I'm sure it does not plan to lose money with this either. There is not point of this if it does not believe it can have a competetive product and not lose money on that.

In the video above it was mentioned Tesla has the NoA lane change data for example. There's 100,000 lane changes everyday with zero accident ever.
 
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0% if you're referring to complete autonomy in all situations.

I work in the broader AI field, admittedly in the NLP/NLU/NLC space rather than image processing, but autonomy (which is what we're really talking about) is an extraordinarily difficult problem to solve, where the inputs are not finite. There are literally an infinite number of "ifs" with a finite number of "thens" to consider, and so this is both a computational problem as well as a learning problem and a recall (storage/latency) problem.

I certainly think that something close to self-driving will be available for "sunny day" scenarios, like driving around relatively calm and quiet grid-based cities with good weather and predictable traffic. But negotiating poorly signed road-works on smashed up highways around New York or Detroit, or dealing with heavy rain, snow, fog, erratic drivers, cyclists, traffic cops telling drivers to do the opposite of what the signs say, dealing with emergency vehicles, navigating parking lots, doing all of that in the dark, doing any of that when there's no wireless signal and not enough information in the onboard database, etc, all mean that "full" autonomy is probably 3 or 4 generations away (10 - 15 years IMO).

In technology people talking about 80/20 where 20% of the effort gets you 80% of the result, and the remaining 80% effort gets you the final 20% result. In the development of autonomous driving, those "edge cases" which might only be 1 - 2% of driving situations, will consume more than 95% of the effort.

I would so love to be wrong BTW.
I believe Musk has addressed this and I've not seen anyone post on this. Not to say they haven't as I miss a LOT of posts. I believe Musk believes statistically being twice as good as the avg driver is his target. If NTSB numbers are 12 fatalities in 1.2 million miles of driving, he'd consider success being 6 fatalities in 1.2 million miles of driving. In his interview with Lex, he admitted they couldn't foresee or game every last scenario (as that would prove we all live in a simulation) <- should that jog anyone's memory. So twice as good isn't carrier grade performance or even 6 9's. As I stated previously, when SAE level 5 states human driver, do they refer to Nascar driver or a 15 year old on a learners permit?
 
A history of Elon self driving predictions:
2015: Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years - Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years
2016: Elon Musk on Twitter - Tesla driving itself coast to coast in two years
2017: Elon Musk clarifies Tesla’s plan for level 5 fully autonomous driving: 2 years away from sleeping in the car - Full self driving, level 5, two years away
2018: Tesla CEO Elon Musk: ‘self-driving will encompass all modes of driving by the end of next year’ - self-driving will encompass all modes of driving by the end of the next year.
Looks like Musk is pretty consistent - he has been saying 2 years for a while.

Only in '18 and '19 he started saying this/next year. So we should assume, Tesla is getting closer. They will have it in 5 years.
 
So twice as good isn't carrier grade performance or even 6 9's. As I stated previously, when SAE level 5 states human driver, do they refer to Nascar driver or a 15 year old on a learners permit?
Using avg number of crashes (4.2 per 1 Million miles), humans are at 99.9996%. To be twice as good, FSD has to be 99.9998% or 2.1 crashes per million miles.

To prove this with some certainty, one would have to test for Billions of miles - that is where Tesla's huge fleet comes in handy. You can't easily prove better than humans in fatality - # of miles needed is too big even for Tesla fleet.
 
Using avg number of crashes (4.2 per 1 Million miles), humans are at 99.9996%. To be twice as good, FSD has to be 99.9998% or 2.1 crashes per million miles.

The problem for Tesla is that legal liability doen't work that way. They will be treated like a taxi driver, and get sued when inevitably there is a crash where AP is fault. They obviously know that and must have a plan to deal with it, but it's very difficult to handle because the plaintiff will naturally try to use discovery to look for flaws in their system that lead to the crash.
 
The problem for Tesla is that legal liability doen't work that way. They will be treated like a taxi driver, and get sued when inevitably there is a crash where AP is fault. They obviously know that and must have a plan to deal with it, but it's very difficult to handle because the plaintiff will naturally try to use discovery to look for flaws in their system that lead to the crash.
IMNAL - but that is not how it works. Tesla specifically says some of their stuff is Beta and drivers have to be always vigilant.

Not that someone won't try to sue them (people do all the time), but Tesla's chance of winning is higher because of the warnings.
 
Was that 2016 with MobilEye ? That breakup with MobilEye cost Tesla probably 2 years.

The break up with Mobilieye was only because it found out Tesla was developing its own vision stack and neural net with the plan to eventually dump Mobileye. As early as 2015 Tesla was already hiring Jim Keller/Pete Bannon and tried to recruit George Hotz for its own autonomous project. Mobileye just did the you did not fire me I quit thing to save its stock price. Who in their right mind would want to leave its most important customer unless if there is no choice. The result was Tesla had to push AP2 before it was ready but that would have come anyway.
 
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The break up with Mobilieye was only because it found out Tesla was developing its own vision stack and neural net with the plan to eventually dump Mobileye. As early as 2015 Tesla was already hiring Jim Keller/Pete Bannon and tried to recruit George Hotz for its own autonomous project. Mobileye just did the you did not fire me I quit thing to save its stock price. Who in their right mind would want to leave its most important customer unless if there is no choice. The result was Tesla had to push AP2 before it was ready but that would have come anyway.
I thought the divorce came about because of the fatal accident. No doubt, there were other things happening. Musk wanted to be way more aggressive than MobilEye.

I think something similar will eventually happen to Panasonic.
 
I thought the divorce came about because of the fatal accident. No doubt, there were other things happening. Musk wanted to be way more aggressive than MobilEye.

I think something similar will eventually happen to Panasonic.

That was just an excuse of course. Tesla's intention was known long before that especially to Mobilieye. Elon was way more aggressive while Mobileye was against autonomous technology in order to preserve its driver assistance market. Not to mention Elon always wanted to be vertically integrated in everything.

Elon Musk offered a "multimillion-dollar bonus" for Geohot to build a "Mobileye crushing" Autopilot system for Tesla - Electrek

The same has happened to Nvidia but Jensen Huang was much more classy. He only said we will still welcome Tesla if it decides to come back. Yes the Panasonic situation is pretty similar. Although it's more likely Panasonic will spin off the cell operation and to merge with or sell to Tesla imo. The negotiation is probably on going for a while now.
 
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What is the meaning of "round 2" ? It is basically a continuous test-fix-test loop.
Good question, no. It was in Nov, as I recall, as I reached out to my Customer Advisor in Dedham, MA that Tesla was seeking employees that had a tesla to be part of a select group testing their FSD version. The advisor confirmed it was solely for employees and agreed I'd be a perfect candidate given my background. Earlier this year it was reported Tesla again reached out to get more (a second round) of employees to join the testing. That, to me, says they have reduced their level of trepidation and can tolerate more employees running FSD as QA people.
 
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Good question, no. It was in Nov, as I recall, as I reached out to my Customer Advisor in Dedham, MA that Tesla was seeking employees that had a tesla to be part of a select group testing their FSD version. The advisor confirmed it was solely for employees and agreed I'd be a perfect candidate given my background. Earlier this year it was reported Tesla again reached out to get more (a second round) of employees to join the testing. That, to me, says they have reduced their level of trepidation and can tolerate more employees running FSD as QA people.
Got it. I'd say not surprising - given the capabilities are much more in the open now (after Demo day). They are also in production version but disabled (as you can see from @verygreen videos).

The way my earlier company used to do this was to have smaller team of employees test every build and larger group test slightly more stable builds. And then they would throw it open to outside devs and then to anyone who wanted the beta version - before release candidates.