When to buy a Model 3?

[EAV1]

Hi! This is my first post here, hopefully of many. I'm currently in a situation where I would really like to purchase a Model 3, but would also like to make a smart decision. I know that whenever I buy the car, I will love it, and that technology constantly develops and something newer and better will always appear.

I have understood that it would not be smart to purchase a Tesla right before Batter Day, and that the prices might go down after that event. Or the batteries might improve drastically. I always like a smart buy, but have made a few mistakes earlier with different appliances. For example, I got my latest iPhone for a slight discount during Cyber Monday and a month later, after Christmas, it was sold for 20% less than I paid. Not a significant amount of money when talking smartphones, but with cars it's different. One also feels really stupid when the price decreases almost immediately after a purchase, and as I said, I like to make smart purchases.

Do you guys have any idea or rumors about whether something truly significant will happen after September?

What smaller updates have been made to the Model 3 lately and are there any upcoming improvements that are known?

Also, I live in Helsinki, Finland where we get snow and slush in the winter and temperatures below 0C. Are there any reasons why I should not buy the car right before a winter and rather wait until spring?

Thank you for any tips and opinions!

 

[RubberToe]

I would wait till after battery day. Up North you need all the battery capacity you can get in the winter. Especially if you do long trips.

RT

 

[EAV1]

Thanks! If we look at past Tesla announcements, how long does it usually take from the "Day", to production, to delivery for the new technology?

 

[RubberToe]

Thanks! If we look at past Tesla announcements, how long does it usually take from the "Day", to production, to delivery for the new technology?

So as not to "Osborne" their current products, it's likely that some of what they announce will be available "immediately". Where immediately for Finland would be how long product takes to get there. Maybe the S and X get a refresh that includes larger batteries or denser batteries with more range but same size. Likely not available in the Model 3 at that time, since Tesla doesn't want to detract from sales of the higher priced cars.

For the 3 and the Y, maybe they say that the new chemistry could allow for faster charging, or better longevity, but not more range. That could be available in a bit, but maybe not for the 3 or Y on battery day. I suppose it's possibly a new chemistry is in all cars being produced either right now, or very soon. If that's the case then it could end up in the 3 and Y very soon. Just some random thoughts.

We are thinking of getting a Y, but holding off any decision until after battery day. One of the main tenants of business is you don't want to announce anything that is going to severely depress near future sales.

RT

 

[EAV1]

Thanks for a detailed answer. It looks like I will have to wait for at least a month. Possibly until next year. I guess the chances of Model 3 prices going up are minimal at this point, so no risk in waiting?

 

[pjensen]

This is my first post here, hopefully of many. I'm currently in a situation where I would really like to purchase a Model 3, but would also like to make a smart decision. I know that whenever I buy the car, I will love it, and that technology constantly develops and something newer and better will always appear.

I have understood that it would not be smart to purchase a Tesla right before Batter Day, and that the prices might go down after that event. Or the batteries might improve drastically.

When I heard about battery day, I went ahead and ordered immediately. I want the older (well known, trusted, tested) technology. The M3 has been out for several years and many problems have been fixed. I do not want to be a beta tester of a brand new battery.

When I read the experiences of other posters here, I pretty much know what I'm getting. With anything new, there WILL be problems and compromises - you just don't know what they will be yet.

I've read through several thousand posts here on this forum. All the problems that have come up over the past 3 years, I am ok with dealing with them (if they happen to me). But I'm not ready to take on unknown problems also.

With any new product, wait a year or two (to get the bugs out).

 

[EAV1]

When I heard about battery day, I went ahead and ordered immediately. I want the older (well known, trusted, tested) technology. The M3 has been out for several years and many problems have been fixed. I do not want to be a beta tester of a brand new battery.

When I read the experiences of other posters here, I pretty much know what I'm getting. With anything new, there WILL be problems and compromises - you just don't know what they will be yet.

I've read through several thousand posts here on this forum. All the problems that have come up over the past 3 years, I am ok with dealing with them (if they happen to me). But I'm not ready to take on unknown problems also.

With any new product, wait a year or two (to get the bugs out).

Wow, you really do make an excellent point! Does not make my decision easier though. One of the problems that I have with switching to an electric car is the inconvenience of charging the battery. If the new battery provides faster charging times or more capacity, it removes a part of this inconvenience. What kind of problems do you think the new battery could have? Since the warranty for the battery is 8 years, I'm not really worried. Would even be convenient to receive a new (further improved) battery for free before the warranty expires.

 

[pjensen]

Does not make my decision easier though. One of the problems that I have with switching to an electric car is the inconvenience of charging the battery. If the new battery provides faster charging times or more capacity, it removes a part of this inconvenience.

Hopefully the newer technology would give you that. But that is a complete unknown until the battery is installed in cars, delivered and run for at least a year (or more).

What kind of problems do you think the new battery could have? Since the warranty for the battery is 8 years, I'm not really worried. Would even be convenient to receive a new (further improved) battery for free before the warranty expires.

Well every design is a compromise. For example, the battery might have more capacity but take longer to charge. It might require special conditions such as a high temperature to charge completely. And the battery might have a shorter lifespan. And most likely, they will cost more.

Warranties are good when the underlying product works well. If not, there will be thousands of returns that will clog up the service centers and put a huge financial strain on the company. Sales will drop due to the problems.

Never, never assume that newer is better. I always wait to see the actual results.

If your situation requires more capacity and faster charging than the current model, then hold off buying. There is no rush.

 

[EAV1]

Interesting points. Perhaps the most important factor for me is price. I don't really want for it to go up, even if there are improvements to the car or battery. Until posting here, I was somehow convinced that the only direction the price can change is down. This is the message that numerous articles and Youtube videos convey. It is an interesting point that new technology could also raise prices. Now I have the feeling that the M3 will not receive anything that would hike the price. But who knows. I went for a test drive recently, and it's such a great car! So perhaps I could survive mentally any bad decision I make in timing of purchase

 

[UnderCharged]

I'm in the same boat, I'm waiting untill after battery day with a delivery right around end of the year. I'm hoping it's not a mistake and clusterfu*k, but I'm probably walking into a Trainwreck.

I think if tesla made changes to the battery for the y and 3, it would already be installed. They can software limit any increase just like they did with the model s 70d.then after battery day push a update which would unlock range or features. I feel if tesla mentioned a new battery for the 3 and y it would cannibalize sales until the battery was installed. Then again the model s and x need a refresh more then the 3. So we could be waiting for no reason

 

[BlindPass]

I'm in the same boat, I'm waiting untill after battery day with a delivery right around end of the year. I'm hoping it's not a mistake and clusterfu*k, but I'm probably walking into a Trainwreck.

I think if tesla made changes to the battery for the y and 3, it would already be installed. They can software limit any increase just like they did with the model s 70d.then after battery day push a update which would unlock range or features. I feel if tesla mentioned a new battery for the 3 and y it would cannibalize sales until the battery was installed. Then again the model s and x need a refresh more then the 3. So we could be waiting for no reason

Perhaps the May and July price decreases are reflective of such improvements in batteries?

 

[EAV1]

A few more thoughts. I have simply assumed that Battery Day was postponed from April because of the Covid-19 situation. If this was the reason, they've had plenty of time to improve and test any new technology and possibly/hopefully install it into their cars. If the reason, however, is related to the technology that they are going to launch, I will be moving towards pjensen's opinion about whether to buy now or later.

I can only imagine how long the order log will be after Battery Day when thousands of people rush to order their Teslas! Perhaps the option is to order now and drive this autumn or to order one month later and drive next summer

 

[ShaolinJ]

I would think the way they would most likely introduce new batteries would be a 'premium battery option', probably for a lot more money. That's the only way to do it without causing chaos in sales.
It does look like a heat pump is coming though, anyone living in cold climates may want to consider waiting for that.

 

[UnderCharged]

Perhaps the May and July price decreases are reflective of such improvements in batteries?

No idea, I would love for the model 3 to get 400miles and I'm sure the performance guys would love to get ludicrous mode. But who knows what's gonna happen, it could just be a road map showing where Tesla is heading towards. Then again lucid is advertising long range so Tesla could be counteracting that. However the cookie crumbles I can't wait to order mine, it's been long over due tbh.

 

[blizza87]

Elon Musk himself in June said there are no current plans for a larger battery pack for the model 3 in development:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1272856252003921921

 

[EAV1]

Tesla Model 3's new, Model Y-like frunk might mean more range

This is something I definitely need to wait for (already mentioned by ShaolinJ earlier). However, what a sucky move to modify the trunk, but not to install the heat pump right away! I wonder whether there is an option of a retrofit.

Btw, does a site exist with full specs about the M3? For example, whether it features USB-C (some reports found online) or traditional USP-ports.

 

[UnderCharged]

Elon Musk himself in June said there are no current plans for a larger battery pack for the model 3 in development:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1272856252003921921

Maybe because it's already there, you ever think to look outside the box. Ask yourself this, why is it that Tesla can send an update ota and you get a little more range or your car is now faster. It's because they have a buffer set in place, they do this so they can see how the batteries are holding up over a period of time. Then when they feel confident the increase won't jeopardize reliability they kick it out to everyone. Not only does this make customers happy but it creates positive press and creates more sales. But then again what do I know, I'm just some guy trying to decipher articles like everyone else.

 

[Mr X]

The longer you wait the longer you miss out on one of the greatest driving experiences on our planet


And just an FYI, 11 months later my car is better now than it was when I first got it with all the updates and power boosts it has received.

 

[EAV1]

The longer you wait the longer you miss out on one of the greatest driving experiences on our planet


And just an FYI, 11 months later my car is better now than it was when I first got it with all the updates and power boosts it has received.

I know and this is exactly why I'm more and more inclined towards buying right away. However, I don't want to be stupid. If I would know for sure that any improvements to the M3 won't be available before January, I would order right away. But I don't want to be that guy who missed out on something significant because he was too impatient to wait for a few weeks. The heat pump is, at the moment for me, that something significant that I feel the need to wait for. Battery Day is another nuisance. It just feels really dumb to order before knowing what is going to be announced. However, at this point I'm pretty convinced that there won't be a price decrease anymore this year, since the M3 had its 1000 USD decrease earlier. If I remember correctly, the price in Finland has not decreased though.

 

[BlindPass]

Maybe because it's already there, you ever think to look outside the box. Ask yourself this, why is it that Tesla can send an update ota and you get a little more range or your car is now faster. It's because they have a buffer set in place, they do this so they can see how the batteries are holding up over a period of time. Then when they feel confident the increase won't jeopardize reliability they kick it out to everyone. Not only does this make customers happy but it creates positive press and creates more sales. But then again what do I know, I'm just some guy trying to decipher articles like everyone else.

It’s also the precedent for more revenue in the form of premium “updates”, once there are enough captive consumers in place.

Tangentially, remember the break OTA improvements? I’ve wondered if that was somewhat staged/planned.

I don’t know if the M3 battery is being modulated, or will be bigger, but Musk can’t say “yes, we’re going to include a bigger battery in future M3s”. Too many buyers would wait.