Where do you think Tesla's FSD will be 12 months from now (April 2020)?

[Daniel in SD]

It was such a mess that Audi cited that as one of the reasons they weren't planning on releasing the Audi A8 with Limited L3 capabilities within the US.

Audi hasn't released that system anywhere on earth. I don't think that's the problem.
There are more Teslas in California than any country and nearly as many as the rest of the US combined. It would be dumb not to get FSD approved in CA and instead wait for federal regulation (which isn't going to happen until there is more data from the states). The regulations really aren't all that complicated or hard to comply with (except for the whole making a self driving car part, that's really hard!).

 

[diplomat33]

Maybe I'm just concern trolling here but when you look at all the problems Waymo, Cruise, and Uber have had with getting their test drivers to remain vigilant I don't think so.

Yeah, I think you are concern trolling a little bit. Sure, if Tesla releases "traffic light detection" as an unreliable L2 feature such that drivers need to intervene because the system might run a red light, your concerns would be absolutely justified. But the feature has not been released yet. And I am sure Tesla knows the risks and is working hard to make the feature as safe as possible before releasing it. So let's see how the feature works when it is released before we automatically jump to "oh no! people are going to die because AP will run red lights and the drivers will be too complacent to intervene in time!"

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Audi hasn't released that system anywhere on earth. I don't think that's the problem.
There are more Teslas in California than any country and nearly as many as the rest of the US combined. It would be dumb not to get FSD approved in CA and instead wait for federal regulation (which isn't going to happen until there is more data from the states). The regulations really aren't all that complicated or hard to comply with (except for the whole making a self driving car part, that's really hard!).

Audi was or is currently in the process of getting regulatory approval for the A8 for Level 3 driving in Germany.

I don't know if they've gotten approval yet because I haven't heard any updates on it. I brought it up as it's the only case that I know of where a L3 vehicle for a consumer vehicle has gotten into the phase of regulatory approval.

Now it's not a system I want as its laughably limited, but it's breaking through the L2 wall. So it's at least something.

As to whether Audi is being stupid by not attempting to get individual state approval? I agree, but I think there is more too it than that. I think they're also concerned with liability laws in the US.

 

[Daniel in SD]

As to whether Audi is being stupid by not attempting to get individual state approval? I agree, but I think there is more too it than that. I think they're also concerned with liability laws in the US.

Yeah, with a level 3 system common sense says the manufacturer is liable for accidents since they're the ones "driving" the car.
I wish Tesla would try to get highway NoA working as a level 3 system...

 

[EVNow]

I wish Tesla would try to get highway NoA working as a level 3 system...

As an investor, I'd say no !

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

As an investor, I'd say no !

What could possibly go wrong?

 

[LDCRS]

Came across this timeline on the Australian National Transport Commission Website.

Not sure how up to date it is or the accuracy of it but interesting to see it all on a timeline nevertheless.

 

[EVNow]

Came across this timeline on the Australian National Transport Commission Website.

Not sure how up to date it is or the accuracy of it but interesting to see it all on a timeline nevertheless.


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So, basically everyone is saying they will have level 4 in a year or two. Why is everyone just hating on Musk ?

 

[johnm]

So, basically everyone is saying they will have level 4 in a year or two. Why is everyone just hating on Musk ?

I am not an expert on these levels, but a shuttle that can go between two points and get to the side of the road and turn on flashers in the event of a problem is Level 4, right? Not specifying the "limited conditions" and just saying Level 4 seems like it leaves a lot of possibilities.

Elon's tweets sound like they want to make Enhanced Summon be Level 4 reasonably soon. Tweeting about multilevel parking garages sure seems to imply Level 4-like abilities. It doesn't seem like it would be possible to be responsible for stopping your car when you are on a a different level of a parking structure from it.

 

[Daniel in SD]

So, basically everyone is saying they will have level 4 in a year or two. Why is everyone just hating on Musk ?

I guess it's good to have goals. haha.
I honestly think the only reason Musk gets hate is because he's selling a product that doesn't exist and no one knows how to make yet. I don't think FSD is something that it's possible to put a timeline on.
If you're at 1000 miles without an accident (3 9's?) and trying to get to 100,000 miles (5 9's) does that mean you're 80% of the way there or are you really only 1%?

 

[Daniel in SD]

I am not an expert on these levels, but a shuttle that can go between two points and get to the side of the road and turn on flashers in the event of a problem is Level 4, right? Not specifying the "limited conditions" and just saying Level 4, seems like it leaves a lot of possibilities.

Yes, most are planning robotaxis in a limited area and in good weather. Also there will probably be a remote operator to take over if the vehicle gets stuck.

Elon's tweets sound like they want to make Enhanced Summon be Level 4 reasonably soon. Tweeting about multilevel parking garages sure seems to imply Level 4-like abilities. It doesn't seem like it would be possible to be responsible for stopping your car when you are on a a different level of a parking structure from it.

This is my thinking as well. I have trouble seeing how they can release Enhanced Summon as a level 2 system. How can you possibly be responsible for operating your car from 150 feet away? Or do you have to go inspect around the vehicle before you activate it to make sure there's nothing in the way?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Only way to find out if they actually increase or decrease accidents is to run it as a test on limited number of cars first and wider as accuracy is proved in smaller tests.

I can't tell if you actually think this is the only way to do this, or not. Fortunately for everyone else on the road, this is not the only rollout method that exists.

This would be a guaranteed way for Tesla to violate community trust. Just can't be done like that - and they aren't doing it this way.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

As an investor, I'd say no !

So I think you're saying you want level 2 city NOA? I am not sure why that is a particularly useful feature, quite aside from the possible safety issues. Just based on my interventions when using highway NOA, I feel like driving in the city would have so many interventions with mature city NOA I'd just want to drive myself. And I'm not sure exactly how much even level 2 city NOA protects Tesla from liability, exactly. It will, I suppose, but maybe not in the court of public opinion.

It seems like maybe @Daniel in SD was saying that at least Level 3 NOA on the freeways is a more tractable problem (I'm not so sure). I'm not sure why he wishes for L3 NOA on the highway to be honest. It seems incredibly frightening at this stage.

Personally, as an investor, I'd like Tesla to focus on safety and making cars that people want. This FSD stuff is kind of silly. Just use the technology to make the cars safer! They have more data than anyone else and are probably better positioned to do that than anyone else. There's a lot of overlap in the two goals, and eventually maybe FSD will come, but it's far from clear it will be possible on the hardware we have. But the hardware we have (especially for those people with HW3) should be able to make the cars a lot safer!

 

[banned-66611]

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The labels on the X axis are wrong. It's actually a BS meter. The further to the left the more they are yanking your chain.

 

[LDCRS]

Personally, as an investor, I'd like Tesla to focus on safety and making cars that people want. This FSD stuff is kind of silly. Just use the technology to make the cars safer! They have more data than anyone else and are probably better positioned to do that than anyone else. There's a lot of overlap in the two goals, and eventually maybe FSD will come, but it's far from clear it will be possible on the hardware we have. But the hardware we have (especially for those people with HW3) should be able to make the cars a lot safer!

FSD and Autonomy is where the future is headed. Just like EV's are eventually going to supercede ICE.

Perhaps Tesla is doing the right thing by being the first to market for 'general' FSD. Imagine what Tesla's bank account will look like when FSD is released and half of the million plus cars spend $10k on 'FSD software' which costs them almost nothing to implement over the air.

Look at how Tesla is doing now that they were ahead of the EV game. One can only imagine what will happen once they get ahead in the FSD game too.

Also, FSD is inherently going to make cars safer. They are chasing those long tails down to get safety to 99.999999%.

And what people want? I think the Model 3 sales can really speak for itself. Once gigafactory 3 opens up - watch what happens.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Also, FSD is inherently going to make cars safer. They are chasing those long tails down to get safety to 99.999999%.

It’s going to be a real conundrum when active background safety measures take human driving safety to 9 9’s! Then the FSD will need to be even better!

I guess at some point FSD will become required, because you’ll be eliminating the accidents that are actually intentional (which active safety measures may not be able to avoid, since user input can eventually override the protection).

As far as Model 3 goes - Model Y would be looking really good right now - need to start pumping those out of the factory ASAP. Sales will be unstoppable.

 

[diplomat33]

Came across this timeline on the Australian National Transport Commission Website.

Not sure how up to date it is or the accuracy of it but interesting to see it all on a timeline nevertheless.

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Interesting graph. GM is the clear outlier and they already admitted they will miss their 2019 deadline. Then we have a few optimists claiming 2020. But based on majority rule, it seems 2021-22 is the consensus of when L4 should arrive. That is when the bulk of auto makers think they will achieve L4. That seems reasonable to me.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Interesting graph. GM is the clear outlier and they already admitted they will miss their 2019 deadline. Then we have a few optimists claiming 2020. But based on majority rule, it seems 2021-22 is the consensus of when L4 should arrive. That is when the bulk of auto makers think they will achieve L4. That seems reasonable to me.

"Google cofounder Sergey Brin said Google will have autonomous cars available for the general public within five years."
That was September 2012 and their cars were already "feature complete."
It's crazy to me that companies are still putting out timelines.

Google's Sergey Brin: You'll ride in robot cars within 5 years

 

[diplomat33]

"Google cofounder Sergey Brin said Google will have autonomous cars available for the general public within five years."
That was September 2012 and their cars were already "feature complete."
It's crazy to me that companies are still putting out timelines.

Google's Sergey Brin: You'll ride in robot cars within 5 years

You have to shoot for the moon. That is how the once impossible becomes possible. If we didn't set far out goals and miss a few times at first, we'd never achieve anything as a human race.

 

[EVNow]

I honestly think the only reason Musk gets hate is because he's selling a product that doesn't exist and no one knows how to make yet. I don't think FSD is something that it's possible to put a timeline on.

Its no different from Waymo/Cruise selling FSD to their investors. Tesla isn't saying they already have FSD working, either.