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Who in Canada will order the new P85D?

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Are you sure? I think it goes by the original order date. I ordered on the 10th of October but didn't confirm until the 13th whereas some orders from the 10th confirmed immediately (on the 10th). I don't seem to be further back than them.

When I ordered mine back in Dec 2013 I asked Powell out of the Vancouver office if confirming got me the car earlier. His email to me said this:

"Confirming will initiate the build and deliver your Model S sooner. If you have decided on your current options I would suggest confirming. Please note that changes are very difficult to make after the car has been confirmed."

Maybe it's changed since then?
 
When I ordered mine back in Dec 2013 I asked Powell out of the Vancouver office if confirming got me the car earlier. His email to me said this:

"Confirming will initiate the build and deliver your Model S sooner. If you have decided on your current options I would suggest confirming. Please note that changes are very difficult to make after the car has been confirmed."

Maybe it's changed since then?
Or maybe he's wrong? Or maybe I'm wrong. My rationale was based on the spread sheet for the P85Ds (Tesla P85D tracking - Google Sheets) however, as there appear to be other factors such as distance from California that appear to affect the allocations of VIN numbers and potentially build order, its hard to tell for sure. Also it appears that VIN numbering is not a guarantee of build order. Putting these factors aside, I noted that I confirmed after someone in Toronto (who ordered on the same day) and I'm ahead of him in VIN number (he is also further from California). Another example is a guy from Toronto who ordered on the 15th but didn't confirm until the 28th and he appears to be ahead of several people who confirmed earlier.