Will electric vehicles put parts/repair shops out of business?

[mattjs33]

The auto sales rate the last two years has been 17 million a year. That's higher than it's ever been sustained. If every car built beginning tomorrow were electric, it would take 15 years to overhaul the 260-million car US light vehicle fleet.

This is a simplified minimum, since it fails to consider that the production rate exceeds the scrappage rate. The US light vehicle fleet is growing, and getting older. Average age of a car on US roads is higher than it's ever been, at nearly 12 years. They're just made so well now.

As it stands, pure electrics are only about 2% of the total new car market. No one is currently able to predict the adoption rate, or what percentage of manufacturers' fleets will be pure electric, year by year. So that will add many more years onto the goal of a fully electric US fleet.

Eventually, laws of supply and demand will come into effect. Gas will get cheaper as demand goes down, because it has to. Electricity will get more expensive as demand goes up, because it has to. It's conceivable that at some point, a gasoline powered car will present a value proposition over an electric.

The conclusion to all this, is that there is going to be a LOT of gasoline powered cars out there, for a LOT longer than EV proponents are willing to accept.

But it doesn't matter, because just as I said on this forum years ago, EVs aren't made of unicorn farts. They're engineered by humans taking their best educated guess on things like life cycles and use patterns and materials' failure points. They're built by fallible humans using machines made by fallible humans. And they're used in a manner and in conditions that nearly every other high tech device on earth is not subjected to.

Parts on EVs will fail. There will be people around to sell and install those parts, I assure you.

 

[mspohr]

The auto sales rate the last two years has been 17 million a year. That's higher than it's ever been sustained. If every car built beginning tomorrow were electric, it would take 15 years to overhaul the 260-million car US light vehicle fleet.

This is a simplified minimum, since it fails to consider that the production rate exceeds the scrappage rate. The US light vehicle fleet is growing, and getting older. Average age of a car on US roads is higher than it's ever been, at nearly 12 years. They're just made so well now.

As it stands, pure electrics are only about 2% of the total new car market. No one is currently able to predict the adoption rate, or what percentage of manufacturers' fleets will be pure electric, year by year. So that will add many more years onto the goal of a fully electric US fleet.

Eventually, laws of supply and demand will come into effect. Gas will get cheaper as demand goes down, because it has to. Electricity will get more expensive as demand goes up, because it has to. It's conceivable that at some point, a gasoline powered car will present a value proposition over an electric.

The conclusion to all this, is that there is going to be a LOT of gasoline powered cars out there, for a LOT longer than EV proponents are willing to accept.

But it doesn't matter, because just as I said on this forum years ago, EVs aren't made of unicorn farts. They're engineered by humans taking their best educated guess on things like life cycles and use patterns and materials' failure points. They're built by fallible humans using machines made by fallible humans. And they're used in a manner and in conditions that nearly every other high tech device on earth is not subjected to.

Parts on EVs will fail. There will be people around to sell and install those parts, I assure you.

You make some good points. However, with a current average age of 12 years, there are a lot of cars ready for replacement, especially if you can replace a car with high maintenance and fuel costs with a car with low maintenance and fuel costs. The 12 year old cars aren't worth much but as soon as people start dumping them, they will be worth scrap value only.
I don't agree that "electricity will get more expensive because it has to". Renewable energy from wind and solar keeps getting cheaper. (Texas just signed up for 150 MW of solar energy at 2.5 cents kWh. Texas gives away free electricity at night from their windmills.) Worldwide solar and wind prices break new record lows every month.
Gas is more complicated. If you look at it simplistically, yes, lower demand should lower the price but there are a lot of factors which go into the price of oil (cartel, political instability, carbon tariffs, etc.) which can affect the price. Gas may get cheaper but not "because it has to".
It might also get more expensive.

 

[RobStark]

Greater economies of scale for solar and wind production may very well drive retail prices to $.01 per kWh.

The more people and fleets drive BEV and PHEV the easier it becomes politically to raise gasoline and diesel taxes.

The reason we have $2.50 gas and Europeans have $5.50 petrol isn't "because we have to" but is a political choice.

 

[mattjs33]

The more people and fleets drive BEV and PHEV the easier it becomes politically to raise gasoline and diesel taxes.

That makes no sense. Why would anyone raise taxes on something people are using less of?

Governments need revenue. They're already talking about what to do about the decreased fuel usage and the implications for highway dollars. They'll tax what people are using the most of. Don't think your electricity won't be targeted.

 

[RobStark]

That makes no sense. Why would anyone raise taxes on something people are using less of?

That makes perfect sense.

Because it is not a tax on THEM. People want more taxes on people other than themselves and more services for people like themselves.

Taxes on Liquor,Cigarettes, and Gasoline imposes taxes on bad behavior and as a result you get less of it.

Most Americans want less pollution, cleaner air, and less sickness. $6 per gallon accomplishes that. Many just don't want to pay for it. More owners of BEVs and long range PHEVs means we have more voters supporting taxing gasoline diesel to $6 per gallon.