Will electric vehicles put parts/repair shops out of business?

[Norbert]

One of the stories we heard was salespeople having to explain EVs to customers. a thousand questions that they don't have to answer/convince to customers when buying the gas machine they have always bought. That's a lot of extra work and time that takes away from selling more cars per day.

Which will of course become easier as EVs become more common place.

 

[jerry33]

Yes I believe there will still be maintenance. I have spent more on maintenance/upgrades for my Roadster than my last 5 cars and 500,000 miles combined. It is new technology and there will be bugs to be worked out and there are still brakes, cooling systems, A/C and the host of other systems in the car. I think that EV's will reduce car maintenance but it will be far from eliminated.

I'm not sure you can really use the Roadster as an example because there is so much that's really new with a company that was new. If EVs get to be a substantial part of the automobile population, they will also be far more robust. To take your points:

Brakes -- I expect the brakes to last much longer. My Prius still has the original brakes at 139,000 miles and I expect it may be 180,000 or more before they require replacing. An EV shouldn't be any different.

Cooling systems -- You change the fluid at 100,000 miles and then every 50,000 miles. Not much to do there and no real incentive to have it done that the dealers.

A/C -- The electric A/C almost never requires service. I've never had anything done to mine and I'm in Texas where A/C is a way of life. I can recall that my Dad's 50's and 60's Lincolns always had A/C problems (among other things) but it's very rare to have A/C problems these days--even with the engine driven ones.

Now compare this to the ICE which requires regular oil changes, valve adjustments, spark plugs, etc. or the automatic transmission. More importantly because you are doing this maintenance three to four times a year, there are four chances to tack on additional items, compared to one chance on an EV.

Now I don't doubt that the Model S will cost more to maintain then the Prius (for the record, I've spent $9,916.87 for maintenance and tires over 139,286 miles in 106 months) but the mechanical side of the Model S should be mostly trouble-free (If it's not, buyers after the first year will dry up).

 

[jerry33]

I suppose you may have a point about the dealers, however since the RAV4 EV is selling for not much less than the Model S 40 kWh, and Toyota has mass-manufacturing for RAV4 in general, I'd expect them to be able to make money on the RAV4 EV, per individual car sold additionally.

I believe they make money on each car (that was what I was getting at in the previous post, but perhaps I didn't say it clear enough). However, that won't stop people from saying they lose money on every car. People have been saying that about the Prius for years (isn't true though).

As was said in the last quarterly report Q&A, Tesla is in talks with Toyota about potentially increasing the volume, also since a larger volume would significantly reduce the costs for the Tesla components. Elon's take was that a positive experience in the introduction of the RAV4 EV, and a good demand, may lead Toyota to make a larger deal.

I would really like to see that happen, I just have doubts.

 

[Dave EV]

Now compare this to the ICE which requires regular oil changes, valve adjustments, spark plugs, etc. or the automatic transmission. More importantly because you are doing this maintenance three to four times a year, there are four chances to tack on additional items, compared to one chance on an EV.

The only thing the ICE really requires frequently is oil changes, and those have been steadily pushed out towards 10,000 mile intervals these days.

As for the other items on your list:
Valve adjustments - not needed just about ever. Maybe around 100k intervals at most.
Spark plugs - Platinum/iridium plugs have a 100k interval.
Auto transmission fluid - 60-120k change interval if not longer.

One thing you missed: engine-air-filter - typically 20-30k miles. But most cars have cabin air-filters that should be changed on a similar interval, so no big deal there.

 

[Norbert]

I believe they make money on each car (that was what I was getting at in the previous post, but perhaps I didn't say it clear enough). However, that won't stop people from saying they lose money on every car. People have been saying that about the Prius for years (isn't true though).

Maybe you implied it somehow, however I don't quite see yet why you then say "Both Toyota and the dealers stand to lose from EVs...". Why Toyota itself ?

I would really like to see that happen, I just have doubts.

With Nissan it seemed that they had problems when changing the Leaf sales system from online-ordering to dealer based. (Not sure whether this theory still holds, though.) So I'd agree that Toyota dealers might make this difficult, however if there is enough knowledge about the RAV4 EV reaching customers through other channels, including word of mouth, it might happen *if* the positive response to the RAV4 EV will let Toyota realize the potential behind the EV market.

I don't think with dealers it's black and white. They'll find ways to adapt, at least to a good degree, when demand persists. Retrofittable upgrades or whatever. (For example, when it becomes clear that EVs will be a large market, every dealer may want to be one of those who survive, and become the go to dealer for EVs.)

 

[JRP3]

Where potential service losses will come from:
Exhaust and emissions problems. Big dollars there.
Brakes, pads and rotors.
Auto transmission servicing, everything from fluid changes to complete transmission replacement. More big dollars.
Belt replacement.
"Tune ups", often unnecessary but some people still get them.
Alternator replacement.
Fuel pump replacement.

Easily a potential of thousands of dollars of work per vehicle that will disappear, not likely to be replaced with anything comparable.

 

[doug]

Please see also this thread: Will electric vehicles put parts/repair shops out of business?

Some of these recent posts might be better there.

 

[Norbert]

Perhaps also the increased longevity of the motor and the absence of parts with limited lifetime will make it more worthwhile to repair the car otherwise. So perhaps there might be a shift from buying new cars to repairing old cars? Dunno.

 

[Doug_G]

Please see also this thread: Will electric vehicles put parts/repair shops out of business?

Some of these recent posts might be better there.

Yes, I have brought everything over here - including your post!

 

[Doug_G]

Whether or not reduced repair costs will put dealers out of business, it is their perspective that EVs will do exactly that. That is all that really matters. Perception is reality.

When I was helping out at the Canadian International Auto Show last February, one day over lunch I was set upon by a Toronto area Mazda dealer. We both sat down at the same table, and as soon as he saw my EV-related name badge he immediately got very hostile and started spouting all the usual FUD. The very first thing he said to me was, "As a taxpayer I am personally offended by all the subsidies given to EV drivers". I slammed that one into the ground - "I'm personally offended as a taxpayer by the BILLIONS of dollars of subsidies given to oil companies." He looked shocked - he did NOT expect me to hit back like that! But on he went - for a full half hour! He hit all the FUD points from long tailpipe to hydrogen, and I knocked each of them down. That's the sort of hostility EVs are facing from the dealer networks.

I think Tesla has it right - keep them away from conventional dealerships. I believe the big car makers will not be successful with EVs unless they spin them out into a separate EV-only dealer network.

 

[mattjs33]

Perhaps also the increased longevity of the motor and the absence of parts with limited lifetime will make it more worthwhile to repair the car otherwise. So perhaps there might be a shift from buying new cars to repairing old cars? Dunno.

Good point, especially given that the average age of cars on the roads has pushed to an all time high -- over 11 years old. Some of that is ecomonically motivated -- "I can't afford to replace it" -- but what I'm seeing/hearing from a lot of people is need motivated -- "It works fine, I don't need to replace it." I keep saying that cars are made better now than they've ever been. There's a fair amount of proof.

 

[mattjs33]

One of the stories we heard was salespeople having to explain EVs to customers. a thousand questions that they don't have to answer/convince to customers when buying the gas machine they have always bought. That's a lot of extra work and time that takes away from selling more cars per day.

You got it right there. (my emphasis added)

 

[jerry33]

Maybe you implied it somehow, however I don't quite see yet why you then say "Both Toyota and the dealers stand to lose from EVs...". Why Toyota itself ?

Toyota sells the parts to the dealers. EVs have far fewer parts so Toyota loses a goodly chunk of their parts revenue stream.

I don't think with dealers it's black and white. They'll find ways to adapt, at least to a good degree, when demand persists. Retrofittable upgrades or whatever. (For example, when it becomes clear that EVs will be a large market, every dealer may want to be one of those who survive, and become the go to dealer for EVs.)

Well, obviously when EVs are the only game in town (or at least the big player) the dealers left will want to get into the business. There will be far fewer dealers required because there is far less service required. Before that, the dealers will try to stem the EV tide for as long as possible--just try to buy a Leaf from a dealer. The Volt is more dealer friendly because it still has the ICE which requires regular service just like every other hybrid.

As far as retrofitting goes, most people give that up after they turn twenty and have to pay for it and their other living expenses as well. Pouring money into a car to customize it seldom does anything but make a decent car almost un-driveable. In most cases the person who customizes their car gets rid of it within six months.

 

[jerry33]

The only thing the ICE really requires frequently is oil changes, and those have been steadily pushed out towards 10,000 mile intervals these days.

Assuming the engine doesn't blow up like the VW TDI with its 10,000 mile change interval.

Valve adjustments - not needed just about ever. Maybe around 100k intervals at most.

60,000 in Toyota.

Spark plugs - Platinum/iridium plugs have a 100k interval.

Still not zero.

Auto transmission fluid - 60-120k change interval if not longer.

Lab analysis of the Prius indicates 40,000 miles--even though Toyota doesn't specify an interval.

One thing you missed: engine-air-filter - typically 20-30k miles. But most cars have cabin air-filters that should be changed on a similar interval, so no big deal there.

Yes, i missed that. The cabin air filter is also part of an EV's maintenance so that's a wash.

Bear in mind that the car manufacturer sometimes extends the intervals for marketing reasons rather than longevity reasons. They're banking on people not keeping their cars long enough to notice any degradation, or at least getting them past the warranty period far enough so that no one will complain.

 

[jerry33]

And yes, cars today are by-and-large certainly more well made than cars of the 1960s.

 

[doug]

Mechanic's Worry: Electric Car Brakes Will Ruin My Business

 

[shokunin]

Good point, especially given that the average age of cars on the roads has pushed to an all time high -- over 11 years old. Some of that is ecomonically motivated -- "I can't afford to replace it" -- but what I'm seeing/hearing from a lot of people is need motivated -- "It works fine, I don't need to replace it." I keep saying that cars are made better now than they've ever been. There's a fair amount of proof.

Part of the "New Normal" the housing ATM has been cut off for several years and the economy hasn't been well for many families. At some point though, the cost to fix and the poor MPG will boost the car sales once consumer confidence and the jobs market improve. I know many families that are holding onto their cars for one more year or two, hoping for the economy to turn around first. Purely subjective, but most of people I know who have bought a replacement vehicle or returned their leased cars, have bought used / "pre-owned".

 

[FalconNinetyD]

I don't think I've seen people mention the timing belt (or chain). Last I checked, the average Nissan or Toyota dealer charges $600-800 to replace, and this is every 60,000 - 90,000 miles. This is approximately double the cost of oil changes when calculated at cost per mile. I didn't reach that many miles on my old M3 or current S4 in order to warrant a replacement, but I can only imagine the dealer cost on a German vehicle, when a glorified oil change costs me $250 at Audi...

 

[strider]

I don't think I've seen people mention the timing belt (or chain). Last I checked, the average Nissan or Toyota dealer charges $600-800 to replace, and this is every 60,000 - 90,000 miles. This is approximately double the cost of oil changes when calculated at cost per mile. I didn't reach that many miles on my old M3 or current S4 in order to warrant a replacement, but I can only imagine the dealer cost on a German vehicle, when a glorified oil change costs me $250 at Audi...

Yep, I have a diesel Jeep Liberty and changing the timing belt on its lovely Italian motor is ~$1,500 every 100k miles. Plus while you're in there they should do the water pump, belt tensioners and pulleys, new serpentine belt, etc. All told it was over $2,000.

 

[jerry33]

I don't think I've seen people mention the timing belt (or chain). Last I checked, the average Nissan or Toyota dealer charges $600-800 to replace, and this is every 60,000 - 90,000 miles.

60,000 miles is the adjustment interval but replacement is far longer. My Prius has 140,000 on the original timing chain. (the belt only runs the engine water pump).