Worst case scenario

[kgb]

I had similar concerns as Tom. I wasn't sold on the Roadster, but in order to contact other owners on the Tesla sponsored forums, I had to put down a deposit. I didn't realize I could get so much information from these forums. I don't know what you do here, but there is a lot less "rif-raf" on this website compared to the Tesla Motors official website. In any case, I put down a deposit and figured I could get all but $250 back if I cancelled. My deposit sat with Tesla for a year. The only reason I put my deposit down on the Model S, was because I wanted to do the "Lease until your Model S is ready" deal.

So in summary, Tesla uses a mix of coercion and jedi mind tricks to get people to put down deposits.

 

[mattjs33]

This might put it in perspective a bit. Most well-written explanation that I've seen of the challenge facing Tesla in the year(s) ahead:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/229269-tesla-motors-this-hot-ipo-is-headed-for-trouble

 

[Cobos]

It's not to bad, but it has the same problem as many other that write about Tesla.
Tesla has thus far been able to design cars for a pittance compared to the big 3. They seem to have a decent markup around 25% on the Roadster and using non-US prices I've got no problems seeing that they can approach 25% on the Model S. They've also got a big revenue stream from their IP, just like Lotus actually. In many ways they are looking more and more like Lotus. A small in number but regarded as excellent product that they produce themselves and lots of contract work to increase their revenue from their IP.
There are currently no plans for any EV that is in the same market as the Model S. The electric SAAB 9-3 is close, but smaller and less luxurious. The Karma is more expensive and has a gas engine. Infinity at some point will come with something Tesla should fear, but that is probably a few years off yet. This should get them solid sales for the first few years on the Model S. The Bluestar though is the big black cloud, since by the time that comes, there will be plenty of EV options from big auto. The Model S offers something big auto doesn't, sporty, practical big EV. The Bluestar maybe not so much...

Cobos

 

[WarpedOne]

This might put it in perspective a bit. Most well-written explanation that I've seen of the challenge facing Tesla in the year(s) ahead:

Oh, really? This guy compares 70.000 USD Model S with 30.000 USD Nissan Leaf and calls it competition. Mentions some fictional competition from Ford, Toyota etc that we never heard of or is still at least 5 years away.
And IIRC Tesla is not bleeding money for some time now.

He's pretty much clueless on details on EV side of electric car market.

 

[mattjs33]

Oh, really? This guy compares 70.000 USD Model S with 30.000 USD Nissan Leaf and calls it competition. Mentions some fictional competition from Ford, Toyota etc that we never heard of or is still at least 5 years away.
And IIRC Tesla is not bleeding money for some time now.

He's pretty much clueless on details on EV side of electric car market.

Yeah, he really shouldn't compare the Model S to the Leaf. Because the Leaf actually, you know, exists. What is there, one running Model S prototype? Production to begin in 2012, maybe? For a price of $57,000? Oh no, wait, now it's $75,000...

I think the Roadster is a neat little car, I really do. And I want Tesla to succeed; I'm all for diversity in the automobile industry. Hell, I'm even pulling for CODA. But Tesla is going to find out real fast that there is a quite significant difference between building electric sports cars by installing motors into chassis supplied by someone else, at the rate of about 400 a year, versus building a mainstream electric sedan, completely new from the ground up, at a rate of tens of thousands per year.

The Roadster fills a niche quite well. But right now the Model S is more vaporware than the Fisker. At least the Fisker is being built by people with experience building cars in volume. If Tesla is really looking to change the world, they need to do more than succeed in the electric car market, they need to succeed in the car market. To do that they need to build a great car that just happens to be electric. Much bigger companies than them with decades more experience are going to be their competition.

Good luck to Tesla, because the road ahead will not be easy.

 

[dsm363]

Yeah, he really shouldn't compare the Model S to the Leaf. Because the Leaf actually, you know, exists. What is there, one running Model S prototype? Production to begin in 2012, maybe? For a price of $57,000? Oh no, wait, now it's $75,000...

I think the Roadster is a neat little car, I really do. And I want Tesla to succeed; I'm all for diversity in the automobile industry. Hell, I'm even pulling for CODA. But Tesla is going to find out real fast that there is a quite significant difference between building electric sports cars by installing motors into chassis supplied by someone else, at the rate of about 400 a year, versus building a mainstream electric sedan, completely new from the ground up, at a rate of tens of thousands per year.

The Roadster fills a niche quite well. But right now the Model S is more vaporware than the Fisker. At least the Fisker is being built by people with experience building cars in volume. If Tesla is really looking to change the world, they need to do more than succeed in the electric car market, they need to succeed in the car market. To do that they need to build a great car that just happens to be electric. Much bigger companies than them with decades more experience are going to be their competition.

Good luck to Tesla, because the road ahead will not be easy.

It's still listed at $57,000 until stated otherwise. Tesla has hired many experienced auto people and have the expertise of Mercedes and Toyota to tap into for production. It's less vaporware than you make it out to be. They have over 400 million dollars to work on the project so it will be tough for them not to get the car to market.

 

[mattjs33]

It's still listed at $57,000 until stated otherwise. Tesla has hired many experienced auto people and have the expertise of Mercedes and Toyota to tap into for production. It's less vaporware than you make it out to be. They have over 400 million dollars to work on the project so it will be tough for them not to get the car to market.

Excellent counterpoints. Given the input of Mercedes-Benz and Toyota, it's easy to envision a scenario whereby Tesla becomes a division of one of those two companies. In that case, the landscape changes dramatically versus Tesla as an independent.

 

[kgb]

Without any specific knowledge to back it up other than experience and common sense: I am of the belief that Tesla has come too far at this point to simply disappear. Tesla has developed a "brand" which is worth money, plus they have IP of value, and they have some customers (sadly, I think we are the least valuable part of TM). Personally, I think that TM has enough money and momentum to bring the Model S to market, however if they encounter a big enough problem & delay, they could eat through their funds and fail. (Sorry for stating the obvious.) My only point is that I don't think Tesla Motors is going anywhere, it is just a matter of how much it gets bought for. If Model S doesn't make it to market, the brand, IP, & Roadster customers will sell for very little. If the Model S does make it to market, either TM will go on to be it's own independent car company, or more likely be bought out for a bigger chunk of change.