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So jealous of all of you in the US. I can only sight Teslas on the Internet. What was your impression of the car?!
Have to wait another year... That is like forever! But then I will be hopefully one of the first people here in Europe to get a 3 myself
.been meaning to post - was driving down to Orange County from Los Angeles on Tuesday and was stuck in traffic reading TMC on my phone when I looked up and low and behold a truck full of model 3’s was driving next to me
unfortunately couldn’t spot the VINs
surfside
So jealous of all of you in the US. I can only sight Teslas on the Internet. What was your impression of the car?!
Have to wait another year... That is like forever! But then I will be hopefully one of the first people here in Europe to get a 3 myself
He buddy, I echo that. Should be one of the first to receive a M3 in Germany as well. So although we have to wait at least another 12 months we will be the stars once its on our hands.
I do see quite a lot S and X, if I look around its actually daily and that frequency should increase in the next year.
View attachment 259519 View attachment 259520
been meaning to post - was driving down to Orange County from Los Angeles on Tuesday and was stuck in traffic reading TMC on my phone when I looked up and low and behold a truck full of model 3’s was driving next to me
unfortunately couldn’t spot the VINs
surfside
Wow, almost seems like we´re sighting truckloads of Model 3 at the pace we were seeing individual cars just a few weeks ago! Must be careful not to get overly optimistic, but maybe we´re out of level 8 of production hell, now in 7?!
Well, this is one reason. Having looked at it from several perspectives, here are two other reasons:
-- There wasn't any *electricity* in the rural areas. So you couldn't just recharge your car at a Supercharger en route! Rural electrification didn't happen in the US until FDR's New Deal in the 1930s. (See, private companies wouldn't do it: the government had to step in. Same thing is happening now with rural broadband.) While rural electrification happened quicker in some parts of Europe, it was slower in most of the rest of the world.
-- Electricity was much more expensive than gasoline until the 1920s -- gasoline was a waste product during the 1890s/1900s/1910s, so it was incredibly cheap, while electricity was valuable and high-priced. Electric power for cars remained more expensive than gasoline power for cars until the mid-1970s "oil crisis", when gasoline permanently became more expensive. There are some fascinating graphs of long-term electric and gasoline prices which I've seen -- I suggest looking them up.
Also, on November 6 (wrote in video description)
sundaymorning
Active Member
It appears that *some* of Tesla’s M3 bottlenecks are being ironed out as we speak, the rate of production seems to be quite efficient, completely different than the long delay in X.
Apparently, Elon is still hanging out in GF in Nevada. He just tweeted a pic of sunset over there
sundaymorning
Active Member
Based on recent activities on the M3 thread, multiple photos of them being transported on trucks, and reports of VINs above 1k it appears we’re making pretty big progress compared to last Q. This is unless Tesla decided to skip hundreds of VINs and went straight to 1k.. however, I am seeing reports of Vins in the 900s being reported as well. If the bottlenecks were a serious threat to holding M3 production hostage then I doubt we would be seeing these types of activities. My best guess is that things are starting to move quicker now, and as Elon states during CC, once it does “it’ll be like a fighter jet on vertical climb.” I would expect the end of November to be when Tesla is able to do a few hundred a week, a wild guess of 400-500 per..
This is pretty inline with VIN registrations.. can someone check to see if Tesla recently registered new ViN #s, which may be slated for production?
@DaveT I recall you commented during the MX days when the thread was “littered with complaints”. That comment was right on the money as early production saw lots of issues. The X line eventually went mute during that period. Are you feeling the same threat to M3 ramp not being able to meet 400-500 per week by end of November or early December?
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That load was including #1088 (arriving in Oxnard, CA, according to description on youtube).
#1090 is being reported from Tampa Service Center (I verified via Google Street View):
TheTeslaLife on Twitter
And also seems like there was a test drive event for employees recently (would still classify this as a rumour though):
Model 3s at Fremont + testrides • r/teslamotors
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To be exact, again
(was in Turkey in between according to his twitter feed). Returning right back to GF gives us a good idea where he is needed the most...
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bdy0627
Active Member
Nice to see more 3s in the wild in some decent numbers it looks like. With the Semi reveal on Thursday, I'm looking forward to this week. I will be surprised if the stock doesn't have it's first positive week since the week starting October 2nd. We may see some significant buying leading up to the event, and there is definitely the potential for a big move. I'm not convinced that this is going to be a "meh" event. I'm thinking of adding some trading shares if there is a mandatory morning dip on Monday or Tuesday. I'm not so sure we will get it though. I'm going to have some buy orders placed below our current level to try and add if it does dip. I've gotten burned way too often with weeklies, so I won't be touching those. My focus is on March $300s, June $350s, and J19 $350s. If the stock does climb leading up to the event, then I would take some profits before close on Thursday. Note the trader's perspective on the weekly chart:
I personally see a lot similarities with the MX ramp and the M3 ramp. It's hard to break old habits.
One thing that most people "fell" for was believing what Tesla was claiming with the delays. They basically said the delays were for minor reasons and basically kept saying "everything will ramp any day"... which wasn't the case. In retrospect we know that the causes for the delays were far from minor. Rather, it was largely because they had to redesign a lot of the car last minute due to the change of FWD mechanism.
In the case of the Model 3, it doesn't look like they've had to redesign the car (at least as far as we know). But rather one of the major causes is the battery module assembly. However, all I know is that this is ONE of the causes. There appears to be some other causes of the delay that aren't resolved as well. And I don't expect Tesla to be completely transparent with those, so we don't really know what they are and how serious they are. The error of most people on this forum is to always look at things over optimistically with stated timelines from Tesla. The vast majority of the times these timelines don't pan out. (note: but if you're in it for the long-term, it probably doesn't matter much as what's more important is the long-term fundamentals of the company and where the company will begin 5 years.)
So based on all this, I'm assuming all the timelines Elon has recently stated are aspirational and not realistic. I've shared over many posts recently why I think Elon does this and what it means.
In this case, I would assume the problems are far worse than Elon is letting on. It's probably not JUST the battery module assembly... there are probably some other very serious delay bottlenecks. Perhaps the battery module assembly is the worst. But there are others as well. And we just don't know and Tesla doesn't want us to know. That's how Tesla rolls with stuff like this. You just need to accept it.
Personally, I'm thinking Tesla won't hit "400-500 per week" until January or February. But that's just my guess. If they reach it by end of December, I will be thrilled and surprised.
As for the 1000+ VINs recently appearing... seems like we have sparse reports of VINS in the 600-900 being delivered. Perhaps they're delivering somewhat out of order.
Dave - why would tesla push out m3 expected delivery dates by only one Month in many cases if what you say above is true? Do you think Elon and tesla are intentionally misleading folks?!
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Just caught up on the Bernstein/Sacconaghi news, so they still have a $265 price target even with their negative review of the M3? Guess I should feel pretty good when even the bears are pricing $TSLA above my avg entry point in the $240s over the last 3 years, even after adding some recently in the $360s.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I respectfully disagree. During MX ramp, when Tesla officially acknowledged the ramp problem during their Feb '16 quarterly call, they predicted ramp up by Q2 '16, and that prediction turned out to be accurate. Compare the official statement on M3 ramp in this past quarterly call, the amount of details is even more reassuring than what Tesla said during Feb '16. It's one thing to question Elon's unofficial tweets, but I think as a whole, Tesla as a company has a lot of responsible and diligent people working, and question the official statement put out by all those people, seems overly pessimistic and too dismissive.
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