2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[DaveT]

I just got my VIN this evening. VIN #79x. Ordered on 11/22.

 

[Tenable]

I just got my VIN this evening. VIN #79x. Ordered on 11/22.

79x? Is that meant to be 79xx??? I would love that, but I assume I'm simply misinterpreting.

 

[surfside]

Elon Musk finally admits Tesla is building its own custom AI chips

Solid coverage of the discussion by the following guy on twitter:

Smerity @ NIPS2017 on Twitter

surfside

 

[schonelucht]

Non-employee VIN 2079 is scheduled for delivery on Monday. It appears that VINs in the 1-2k range are being assigned and delivered. With only about 3 weeks left in 2017, I’m guessing that total Model 3 deliveries will number less than 5,000, and probably less than 3,000.

Make that less than 2000. There are still cars below 1000 waiting for delivery and I guess there will be plenty below 2000 waiting as well. My current upper estimate for production is 400/week.

 

[Starno]

Little insight about AI :

Currently there is about X number of people working on AI.
In the next 5 years there will be about 8 times that number (in my uni thats how much more AI students there is in the past 3 years).
Who will be working on machines at least 3x faster than today machines.

 

[avoigt]

50 Semis record order from Sysco

Tesla Semi receives large order of 50 electric trucks from Sysco

 

[RobStark]

 

[jeewee3000]

AB Inbev bestelt 40 Tesla-vrachtwagens

Belgian newspaper article (written in Dutch) stating that the beer-company AB INBEV ordered 40 Tesla semis ahead of the semi/roadster reveal event.

The writer seems to know little of Tesla, since he wonders if the company paid the reservation amount of $5000 x 40. Obviously they did.

 

[avoigt]

New record order of 50 Semis.....

Tesla Semi receives large order of 50 electric trucks from Sysco

Nice momentum. I guess it trickles through now that the specs are incredible and the Semi is a no-brainer.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

New record order of 50 Semis.....

Tesla Semi receives large order of 50 electric trucks from Sysco

Nice momentum. I guess it trickles through now that the specs are incredible and the Semi is a no-brainer.

I like that word: "record"

EM can turn this into a superlative competition using your wording.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

And the moat gets wider and more importantly deeper...

Isn't wider more important?

 

[avoigt]

For those of you who like to calculate where the SP may be in the next years attached an interesting calculations about Tesla from a reddit user.

Thought worth sharing...

Tesla is a buy for a while • r/teslamotors

 

[Buddyroe]

Agreed. We need sign of 500+ per week, by end of year. Big Model S & X deliveries will help a bit and TE revenue, but I don’t see a sustained rally without Model 3 mass production.

Production becomes critical after that, as the lack of revenue will impact cash flow needed for the ramp to 10,000 and Semi and Roadster.

I don't think 500 a week is a realistic number - if the production issue remains, 500 a week is impossible. If they have the issue resolved, they will produce many more than 500 per week. So, my prediction is either 100-300 per week OR > 1000 per week (exiting 2017).

Keep in mind that a lot of the cars still being delivered have VINs of less than 1000. It's very possible that the battery packs are still being made by hand since the cars themselves could have been built in the last 3 months, but waited for a battery pack. With that said, I think we simply don't have enough information yet to make even a guess as to what the production status currently is. Sure would be nice to get some type of update from EM. Then again, the scary part is that EM would give some indication if the production issue were resolved. I'd say it's 75-25 that the issue remains and will not be resolved by the end of the year.

 

[mongo]

I don't think 500 a week is a realistic number - if the production issue remains, 500 a week is impossible. If they have the issue resolved, they will produce many more than 500 per week. So, my prediction is either 100-300 per week OR > 1000 per week (exiting 2017).

Keep in mind that a lot of the cars still being delivered have VINs of less than 1000. It's very possible that the battery packs are still being made by hand since the cars themselves could have been built in the last 3 months, but waited for a battery pack. With that said, I think we simply don't have enough information yet to make even a guess as to what the production status currently is. Sure would be nice to get some type of update from EM. Then again, the scary part is that EM would give some indication if the production issue were resolved. I'd say it's 75-25 that the issue remains and will not be resolved by the end of the year.

I guess that there are 4-5 speeds.
1. Pure manual
2. Broken version of module assembly
3. Patched version of module assembly
4. Line 4 in parallel with patched assembly
5. Fixed line with new hardware

With manual assembly option in parallel with 2, 3 and possibly 4.

 

[avoigt]

Some delivery numbers from Europe for the statistics guys:

Germany:

November
Model S: 205
Model X 56

2017 Jan - Nov S+X: 3.042
2016 Jan - Nov S+X: 1.908 (+ 59%)

Austria

November
Model S +X: 63

2017 Jan - Nov S+X: 837
2016 Jan - Nov S+X 709 (+18%)

Switzerland
November
Model S: 61
Model X 44

2017 Jan - Nov S+X: 1786 (+21%)
2016 Jan - Nov S+X 1464

Taking the Spanish and Norwegian numbers into account I expect a strong than expected Europe growth rate.

 

[elasalle]

Tesla opens new Los Angeles delivery center with lot full of Model 3

Lot holding approx a dozen M3 ...

 

[Starno]

How would you reply to that, it's from a Tesla shorts
:



" Let me quote Wikipedia as an example. “”Tesla stated that its automotive branch had a gross margin of 23.1% as of 2Q2016, and has generally been above 20%. However, expenditures for expanding future production (such as Gigafactory 1 and Model 3) are bigger than product profit, resulting in a net loss”.

Sounds reasonable, right? Except it is a total nonsense. Capital expenses are not included in income statement, but in cash flow. What is even more funny is that this quote is directly under a paragraph that explicitly states Tesla used stocks and bonds to fund “”Gigafactory”” and Model 3 production. So people who use this in the defence of Tesla not only have no idea about accounting, but also lacks ability to comprehend written word. "



The argument is basically that you can't explain Tesla losses because of big capex because the Cap expenditure aren't shown in the income statement.

 

[schonelucht]

Solid coverage of the discussion by the following guy on twitter:

Smerity @ NIPS2017 on Twitter

surfside

Elon hasn't learned anything from his 3 months maybe, 6 months certainly tweet

Zaremba et al. (as I know him ) asks the timeline for self driving cars. @elonmusk makes a bold statement of two years for full self driving, three years for an order of magnitude better than humans. These gains are not binary, they can still be incremental even in driving.

Also wondering what the implications are for FSD on current AP2.5 platform if Tesla is implementing their own neural net hardware. My guess : current platform is coming up way too short for the ambitions Tesla has for autonomous cars.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Elon hasn't learned anything from his 3 months maybe, 6 months certainly tweet

actually, his "two-year" FSD timeline hasn't changed since April... so maybe he did learn: just roll it.

 

[Krugerrand]

How would you reply to that, it's from a Tesla shorts.

Hold my beer while I check the couch for loose change.