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  1. D

    Tracking Tesla Powerwal/Powerpackl delivery

    Did anyone yet take delivery or have a delivery date on the powerwall/powerpack? Thanks, Daniel
  2. D

    Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread

    Home quick charging... Interesting idea.
  3. D

    Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

    Oops. Yes. 1100 Wh/l. I was thinking about kWh/kg while typing. Here might be the catch - they did not publish kWh/kg. This might be quite relevant since you could expect an all solid state battery to be heavier than current ones. It might still be a leap in technology, but we don't know. I...
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    Sakti3 - Ann Arbor, MI battery company funded by GM, Khosla, others.

    Yea well I was telling that to myself mostly. I had some wishful thinking regarding Sakti3. After seeing an interview with the CEO, it got me impressed. But leaving out an important detail like kWh/kg seems questionable.
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    Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

    I take back the Sakti3 comment. I couldn't find any information on energy density by weight. I thought I was just missing something but it seems they intentionally did not publish it.
  6. D

    Sakti3 - Ann Arbor, MI battery company funded by GM, Khosla, others.

    Taking the Tesla or Nissan batteries energy density by volume and comparing tells you very little about the specific energy... this thing doesn't have an liquid electrolyte. If anything it should be heavier. This seems relevant if you want to put it in a car, you might care about weight as much...
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    Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread

    It depends what you want to do with it. The powerpack, from my understanding uses the NCA chemistry. That's the lower cycle life chemistry (around 3000 cycles in normal conditions from what I know). So if this is about daily cycling, as in, going off grid, you might be better off with stacking 7...
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    Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

    You can't just take X% improvement per year in batteries and assume that trend just continues. You need to look at actual battery chemistries coming up. There are a few companies doing solid-state Lithium batteries: Sakti3, Quantumscape. From an interview of Ann Marie Sastry, CEO of Sakti3, she...
  9. D

    How real are is eos (grid storage)?

    Ok, Could there be a simple way to adjust the price to better compare to Tesla's $250/kWh, 90-something% efficiency? 250/.92 = 270, 160/.75 = 213. I'd guess it's more complicated than that, but is there some simple way to show an 'effective' price? - - - Updated - - -...
  10. D

    How real are is eos (grid storage)?

    Eos Energy Storage | Technology and Products They claim $160/kWh, 10k cycles (30 years). Zinc Air batteries (don't metal air Li-Ion fall apart?). They seem ready for market quite soon. I'm looking for a catch.
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    Sakti3 - Ann Arbor, MI battery company funded by GM, Khosla, others.

    anyone knows what energy density (Wh/kg) will they get? They say 1100 Wh/l, but I don't know what goes into the battery. Couldn't find it anywhere.
  12. D

    Battery for EV capacity developments

    Regarding GS Yuasa, that supplies Mistsubishi, I made a rather banal simplification in the calculations: I took the currently produced supply data and used that as an approximation for their entire capacity, which like in the case of LG Chem could be much much bigger (LG is at 1/6 of their...
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    Battery for EV capacity developments

    I keep finding errors in the calculations, but it anyone has something to contribute, please go ahead. Tomorrow I'll have more time to get this right.
  14. D

    Battery for EV capacity developments

    By when will Tesla have 100000 run rate? 2016? So that 87000 is probably false. And it is clear that not having any information about the production rate at the gigafactory in 2016 makes this estimate a hand-waving exercise. For BYD, AESC, Samsung in 2015 I took producted MWh as an approximation...
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    Battery for EV capacity developments

    OK, Following a conversation with techmaven (and giving the issue some thought), it makes much more sense to predict 2017 capacity than 2020, since there is a lot going on in new battery technology and if it takes 2 years to build new capacity, that fits quite well into the 2020 timeframe. I...
  16. D

    2015 Outlook Tesla Motors geographical expansion of sales and service activities.

    There should be either here or on another thread updates regarding the energy storage products. The expansion of markets it will sell into for storage probably be much quicker than for cars: There is no need for service centers, and they sell through third parties.
  17. D

    Battery for EV capacity developments

    A few minor corrections 1. As suggested, I took the average of 350 60 kWh (model 3's) and 150 85 kWh (S and X) for Tesla. 2. I googled all of the relatively small manufacturers. GS Yuasa seems to be incurring debt from the batteries, so I don't see them expanding. I extrapolated only 8%...
  18. D

    Battery for EV capacity developments

    Ok... I wanted to correct the data anyway. The AESC data was way off. And I gave the small cell manufacturers a linear growth last time, which is an unfair assumption. For Tesla the growth rate is 50% a year. That is probably on the outer limit, so I just gave them a 25% growth rate. I also...
  19. D

    Battery for EV capacity developments

    I've been playing around in excel with the numbers, to try to get some estimate on how many electric cars should we expect in 2020. First here is the graph, you can guess quite a bit of what I was trying to do from just seeing it, but I'll explain further: I took the first quarter of 2015 and...
  20. D

    What Question Would You Like to Hear at the Shareholder Meeting?

    Please ask them what kind of price points do they expect to get with grid storage by 2020 and what is their opinion on eos.
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    Battery for EV capacity developments

    Ok, I don't see much relevant news for EVs in the grid storage space. There is a partnership between BYD and ABB, I couldn't find much information about the amount of storage they are planning but typical numbers for storage for BYD seem to be in the single digit MWh. Meh. (Link: ABB partners...
  22. D

    Battery for EV capacity developments

    I came across this article about NEC (which is part of the Nissan NEC JV, AESC) : NEC to Deploy 60MW of Energy Storage in PJM : Greentech Media "NEC to Deploy 60MW of Energy Storage in PJM" Does capacity in grid/home battery storage transfer to capacity for EV batteries? My first intuition is...
  23. D

    Tesla - SolarCity miscommunication?

    I saw two unrelated posts from potential buyers who want batteries with their solar cells and are confused, because of an issue as described here - Tesla's New Battery Doesn't Work That Well With Solar - Bloomberg Business Let me explain - There were two residential batteries offered by Tesla...
  24. D

    Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread

    I see massive demand for this product in Africa and India. This is not just based on common sense, but also from a number of articles from South Africa that say it will be very welcomed. It is easy if you are not actually competing with anything, and are providing a real solution to an existing...
  25. D

    Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

    Stefan Quandt macht Elon Musk mit Batterie Konkurrenz - manager magazin BMW's main shareholder is a clean energy enthusiast and actually owns a solar company. He is planing a battery product that is self described as better than the Tesla solution, and will be on market sooner. They call it...
  26. D

    The continuous 70 million TSLA short

    TSLA is great for short term investors. It's a wild roller coaster. This is the wall street equivalent of high stakes poker. Even some moderately bad news like poor sales in China, or some image of a car on fire is enough to send it tanking. On the flip side this makes being a long term...
  27. D

    Battery for EV capacity developments

    2015 Q1 update on the numbers: Taken from Cleantechnica ( 10 Biggest Electric Car Battery Manufacturers Are... | CleanTechnica ) Panasonic is actually gaining market share, faster than any other competitor: Here you can see a more clear compare to the 2014 numbers: This is even before...
  28. D

    Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread

    One of the more interesting articles... Les batteries dElon Musk arrivent en Europe sous la marque Panasonic I used google translate to read this. Perhaps someone who knows french could verify? It seems panasonic and tesla are dividing market share. Panasonic will have PowerStation in europe...
  29. D

    2015 Q1 Discussion thread for Delivery numbers, Earnings Report and Conference Call

    Yes please do a hangout. I learned a lot from one of those. And please please talk about batteries for the grid (that $250/kwh). And Overseas markets... I read Tesla will sell packs to South Africa in late 2016. Africa/India seem like perfect markets for residential storage, if you are upper...
  30. D

    Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread

    Article very relevant to this thread: Tesla's New Battery Doesn't Work That Well With Solar - Bloomberg Business Takeaways - 1. The 10 kwh is intended for backup only and doesn't have the cycle life for daily use, 2. the 7 kwh that actually has the cycle life for daily use (grid defection) -...
  31. D

    Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread

    It would be funny if Tesla shipped packs to Japan. Those batteries would make some round trip...
  32. D

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

    "That was for the entire world. And this year, maybe, we'll be a little bit above 50,000 cars." It can be interpreted both ways. Also, was it true that the news of the low China sales was first mentioned in a Chinese interview? If yes, it would make it a precedent.
  33. D

    Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread

    If Tesla is not constrained for the type of batteries that go into the power pack, this means Panasonic is not constrained. Could we talk about the possibility of Tesla giving permission to Panasonic to get into the power pack business too? It would make perfect sense for selling to Japan, since...
  34. D

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

    Yes Nikkei is in Japan, but wasn't the news about sales in China not doing well first broken out on some Chinese interview? I read that somewhere. If it is true it would make a problematic precedent.
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

    Even without this case, perhaps it should be said that Elon does not make life easy for investors. It would be ideal if all important news, good and bad would be published as soon as they know about it, and in one place (be it even twitter), not on some Chinese interview. Also, we all know...
  36. D

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

    What is your take on Elon's interview with Nikkei? Tesla Motors: Did Elon Musk Already Lower 2015 Delivery Guidance? - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha (one of the comments contains a partial transcript). SA are consistently bearish sometimes without validity, but on this one, I admit...
  37. D

    Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

    How reliable is this: Tesla's $13,000 battery could keep your home running in a blackout | Technology | The Guardian That price... it should be like half, or less. Somethings wrong.
  38. D

    Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread

    Saw the article. I hope it's false. That price is something like twice what it should be. Lets say $180 x 10 = 1800 for the batteries, inverter and battery management another 600, another 1000 for administrative and installation, another 25% profit that gets you to 4250. I could see even 6000...
  39. D

    Battery cost / improvements for Model 3

    Do you know that the 60 and 85 had different revs? I would be hoping they did not since that would indicate the battery rev is for chemistry, not configuration. Also, as a non Tesla owner (small investor)- is it true that you could see the battery rev, without tearing it apart? I got that from...
  40. D

    Battery cost / improvements for Model 3

    Excuse me for being out of the loop here - how do you know both models have the same GM? Also, there is so much speculation around the idea that the model 70D has a different cell, perhaps someone on the forum could check this? From what I understand the generation of the battery is written...
  41. D

    Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread

    Hi does anyone know if Tesla talked to utilities yet? from the talk by JB I get they did, but is there any more specific information about what utilities (perhaps Hawaii?), Also, would Tesla work directly with the utility or through a integration company? Thanks
  42. D

    Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

    I find it a plausible scenario that he just made the whole thing up.
  43. D

    Battery for EV capacity developments

    After giving it some thought, this issues deserves a thread for itself, even though it is tied to BEV competition, which has a thread. If you want to know which OEM's will have a meaningful (say, several 100k EV sales) in the next 5 years you need to talk about battery capacity. So, who is...
  44. D

    Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

    There is a new interview at bloomberg. He is saying Elon told HR people and others to start selling cars, and in the course of two weeks they started somehow getting over the 'crisis'. This just sounds so baloney... And he looks like he's making it up as he talks. Has Elon Musk Turned Tesla...
  45. D

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

    There shouldn't be an effect on TSLA. But as austinEV said we need to differentiate between a failure to deliver the payload to the ISS, which is a huge deal (since Orbital had a failure this leaves NASA naked), and on the other hand a failure to recover the booster, which is 50% expected...
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    Current and upcomming climate change and air pollution related EV policies thread

    Regarding discussed change to regulation so that the California tax incentives will be limited to cars costing $40k or less, what is your opinion on this? I agree on the logic of it, even more so if the total amount of incentives per EV increases, but is allocated to cheaper EVs. Regarding the...
  47. D

    Current and upcomming climate change and air pollution related EV policies thread

    There should be a thread dedicated to the changing regulation landscape as a result of climate change and air pollution. Since California and Norway both have such policies, and both are significant markets for Tesla, the importance of incentives and other regulations on Tesla seems quite...
  48. D

    S70D investor implications

    I think the theme for the Q1 ER could very likely be - how can Tesla improve efficiencies to offset the huge R&D expenses. 70D is part of this. So is the home battery as a new revenue stream.
  49. D

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Human behavior does not fundamentally change from generation to generation. What is different is that people have less money to spend. If you can't afford a car without giving up an unreasonable chunk of the paycheck, well, the bus and occasional taxi will do. People who can afford a car will...
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    S70D investor implications

    Safe to talk about an upcoming S100D yet? Or still too speculative? Edit: I suggest stretching some investigative dendrites, if the theory of 70D being partly due to a better battery chemistry, the move from 222 mi expected to 240 mi means a significant step from current battery chemistry. So...