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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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Ok so here are the rules for tomorrow:

1. Nice constructive debate.
2. Reserve this for short term movements.
3. For those of you who travel and tend to tank the stock when you login-- don't do it (you know who you guys are) :)
4. ABSOLUTELY NO POETRY (ESPECIALLY HAIKU)
5. There are no rules with TSLA... ever.

Exciting times are ahead... we got the high short interest, X, GF, and real battery packs.
 
Good to see you here.

Today was a classic example of a tug-of-war battle. Pre-market highs were at $241, day ows being $229s, the weaker Bulls have bailed, while weaker bears have also done the same; new money is entering and we are now in the positives. Some investors are sidelined, believing that we will revisit low $200s while others believe we will break all time highs. Gotta love it. Still proud to say 95% long with 5% sidelined. I will be happy in either direction, all I know is that I won't be missing this train when it takes off.

Yes, you can tell that new money is entering TSLA because of the substantial purchasing at open each morning. We zoom up as the new entrants buy stock. The more experienced TSLA traders buy during the day, often about an hour after open when the bears make their play.
 
What is your take on Elon's interview with Nikkei?
Tesla Motors: Did Elon Musk Already Lower 2015 Delivery Guidance? - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
(one of the comments contains a partial transcript).
SA are consistently bearish sometimes without validity, but on this one, I admit got me by surprise. The language does seem to indicate a lowering of guidance.
I'd like to have your opinion on this.

This was discussed in this thread, here: Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction? - Page 32 and here: Prediction Competition for 2015 - Page 9.

Consensus is we pretty much think the same way you did regarding how to interpret what was said.
 
Even without this case, perhaps it should be said that Elon does not make life easy for investors. It would be ideal if all important news, good and bad would be published as soon as they know about it, and in one place (be it even twitter), not on some Chinese interview.

Also, we all know that Tesla is production constraint, I don't think they would make such a blunt lie about that, but do we know what is the bottleneck?
It sure isn't batteries, if they can start doing storage for the grid for $250/kWh. That must be less GM than on any model S...
 
Even without this case, perhaps it should be said that Elon does not make life easy for investors. It would be ideal if all important news, good and bad would be published as soon as they know about it, and in one place (be it even twitter), not on some Chinese interview.

Also, we all know that Tesla is production constraint, I don't think they would make such a blunt lie about that, but do we know what is the bottleneck?
It sure isn't batteries, if they can start doing storage for the grid for $250/kWh. That must be less GM than on any model S...

It was an interview in Japan.

The bottleneck is vehicle production in the Fremont factory. The cells to be used in the storage is not necessarily the same as in the car battery packs. There is no good reason why the gross margin should be less on stationary storage.
 
What is your take on Elon's interview with Nikkei?
Tesla Motors: Did Elon Musk Already Lower 2015 Delivery Guidance? - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
(one of the comments contains a partial transcript).
SA are consistently bearish sometimes without validity, but on this one, I admit got me by surprise. The language does seem to indicate a lowering of guidance.
I'd like to have your opinion on this.

Q: "Can the Model 3 have a big impact on the Japanese market, where the average car still dominates?"
Answer: "I think the Model 3 is likely to have a big impact in every market. The Model S is a premium car. It's a very full-featured car. It's meant to be a technology leader, with things like advanced autopilot capability. It's in the class, in a way, of a Mercedes S-class or a BMW 7-series, as well as an Audi A8 or A7. The Model 3 is closer to an Audi A4 or BMW 3-series.
But I still think even the Model S is going to do fairly well in Japan. We are seeing steady growth in sales. We are planning to make a big investment in charging infrastructure as well as servicing capability throughout Japan. So you will be able to use the car anywhere in Japan.
We're making a strong long-term commitment to the Japanese market. We really believe in it. But we do think it's something that takes time to build. So, we have to have patience and grow it over time.
I do want to super-emphasize to potential customers that we are very committed, long term, to the market in Japan and making sure they have an amazing experience. We don't have supergrand ambitions. It's not like we expect to be, like, the leading seller or even remotely close to that.
If you look at our sales last year, worldwide, it was only about 32,000 cars. That was for the entire world. And this year, maybe, we'll be a little bit above 50,000 cars. So, we're only talking a few thousand cars here. It's not a huge number. The Model S will continue to be a very exclusive, special, car, but I do want to make sure people know that we are going to be absolutely supportive of any customers in Japan.
They shouldn't have such worries as, "Is there going to be support or charging capability?" We're going to make sure that we invest whatever it takes in order to have people in Japan have a great experience.
As for the charging infrastructure, we're also going to make sure that all of our charging stations are either directly or indirectly solar powered. We'll buy utility power that's coming from solar panels, or we'll have solar panels on the charge station itself. There will be no impact to the electrical grid in Japan. And the supercharging stations for Tesla are always free."

He is very explicitly speaking of the Model S. Otherwise, he would say, "The Model S and Model X will be and continue to be very exclusive cars..." instead of "The Model S will continue to be a very exclusive, special, car..." right after his statement of 50,000 cars. Moreover, it is incredibly unusual to give new guidance in an interview, especially in a foreign country. Moreover, There is absolutely no reason for him to do it one week before the actual earnings call. Also, there is no reason that Tesla should guide down. They beat their Q1 guidance after all.
 
"That was for the entire world. And this year, maybe, we'll be a little bit above 50,000 cars."

It can be interpreted both ways. Also, was it true that the news of the low China sales was first mentioned in a Chinese interview?
If yes, it would make it a precedent.
 
"That was for the entire world. And this year, maybe, we'll be a little bit above 50,000 cars."

It can be interpreted both ways. Also, was it true that the news of the low China sales was first mentioned in a Chinese interview?
If yes, it would make it a precedent.

It could be interpreted both ways only if it is analyzed in isolation from the context, as you quoted in the post. The probelm with this interpretation is that Elon's answer included discussion on exclusivity of Model S, and numbers were used to amplify this point. Nowhere during this answer Elon was talking about Model X or total Model X and MS production.
 
Q: "Can the Model 3 have a big impact on the Japanese market, where the average car still dominates?"
Answer: "I think the Model 3 is likely to have a big impact in every market. The Model S is a premium car. It's a very full-featured car. It's meant to be a technology leader, with things like advanced autopilot capability. It's in the class, in a way, of a Mercedes S-class or a BMW 7-series, as well as an Audi A8 or A7. The Model 3 is closer to an Audi A4 or BMW 3-series.
But I still think even the Model S is going to do fairly well in Japan. We are seeing steady growth in sales. We are planning to make a big investment in charging infrastructure as well as servicing capability throughout Japan. So you will be able to use the car anywhere in Japan.
We're making a strong long-term commitment to the Japanese market. We really believe in it. But we do think it's something that takes time to build. So, we have to have patience and grow it over time.
I do want to super-emphasize to potential customers that we are very committed, long term, to the market in Japan and making sure they have an amazing experience. We don't have supergrand ambitions. It's not like we expect to be, like, the leading seller or even remotely close to that.
If you look at our sales last year, worldwide, it was only about 32,000 cars. That was for the entire world. And this year, maybe, we'll be a little bit above 50,000 cars. So, we're only talking a few thousand cars here. It's not a huge number. The Model S will continue to be a very exclusive, special, car, but I do want to make sure people know that we are going to be absolutely supportive of any customers in Japan.
They shouldn't have such worries as, "Is there going to be support or charging capability?" We're going to make sure that we invest whatever it takes in order to have people in Japan have a great experience.
As for the charging infrastructure, we're also going to make sure that all of our charging stations are either directly or indirectly solar powered. We'll buy utility power that's coming from solar panels, or we'll have solar panels on the charge station itself. There will be no impact to the electrical grid in Japan. And the supercharging stations for Tesla are always free."

He is very explicitly speaking of the Model S. Otherwise, he would say, "The Model S and Model X will be and continue to be very exclusive cars..." instead of "The Model S will continue to be a very exclusive, special, car..." right after his statement of 50,000 cars. Moreover, it is incredibly unusual to give new guidance in an interview, especially in a foreign country. Moreover, There is absolutely no reason for him to do it one week before the actual earnings call. Also, there is no reason that Tesla should guide down. They beat their Q1 guidance after all.

Bravo, 32NO, you make the point quite convincingly that Elon was talking about Model S sales, not all Tesla model sales in 2015.
 
"That was for the entire world. And this year, maybe, we'll be a little bit above 50,000 cars."

It can be interpreted both ways. Also, was it true that the news of the low China sales was first mentioned in a Chinese interview?
If yes, it would make it a precedent.

The news of the low China sales was first mentioned in the Detroit Auto show IIRC.

It could be interpreted both ways only if it is analyzed in isolation from the context, as you quoted in the post. The probelm with this interpretation is that Elon's answer included discussion on exclusivity of Model S, and numbers were used to amplify this point. Nowhere during this answer Elon was talking about Model X or total Model X and MS production.

I completely agree with vgrinshpun here. There would be no reason for him to randomly include the Model X in his discussion about how exclusive Model S is and how Model 3 will have a different dynamic. He doesn't even mention Model X or guidance, it was really an off-the-cuff remark about the Model S, and it has been blown way out of proportion for no reason at all.
 
The news of the low China sales was first mentioned in the Detroit Auto show IIRC.



I completely agree with vgrinshpun here. There would be no reason for him to randomly include the Model X in his discussion about how exclusive Model S is and how Model 3 will have a different dynamic. He doesn't even mention Model X or guidance, it was really an off-the-cuff remark about the Model S, and it has been blown way out of proportion for no reason at all.

A huge thanks to those fighting the "demand" conspiracy nutcases. At this point bears are being slaughtered at every possible angle they are forced into a corner with nothing more convincing to argue than the old "demand." This is a one trick pony and will never get old, their last effort before CC, a move that has desperation written all over. We've been down this road many times, keep up the good fight. God bless.
 
To me, I think Elon doesn't have the exact number on recall, but he knows it's above 50k, so that what he stated. We're splitting hairs a little here. I think he's got a few other numbers bouncing around his head at the time, so nothing to raise flags in my book.
it worked as a great headline though. People read the article because of it.
 
Just watched a Street.com clip from today where Cramer seems to be setting the tone for a Tesla beat. He still doesn't like the stock, but suggests it they beat, we could be looking at a 40 dollar pop. He says "do not short the stock." Somebody on here was mentioning the possiblitity of issuing more stock if it ramps up after the ER. I could see that scenario playing out.
 
Just watched a Street.com clip from today where Cramer seems to be setting the tone for a Tesla beat. He still doesn't like the stock, but suggests it they beat, we could be looking at a 40 dollar pop. He says "do not short the stock." Somebody on here was mentioning the possiblitity of issuing more stock if it ramps up after the ER. I could see that scenario playing out.

I will be VERY upset if they issue more stock because it would go against EVERYTHING that the company has stated over the past year... Namely... There is no plan to do another offering. Maybe in 2016 or 2017... But for 2015 we have been given pretty clear statements in the past that there's no plan to raise money. This statement is always quickly followed up with saying they will be strong in the cash flows at the end of this year. Those two things go hand in hand. If they do a cash raise this would point not only to a sign of weakness in that they need more money, but also blow holes in their stance that cash flows will look great at the end of the year.
 
Regarding storage and how much it has been priced in... Or not... To the current price.

We here tend to have a fuller scope of the ongoings of the company than I think most people and even analysts and other "professionals" have. While we have thrown around 200$/kWh as the suspected current cost to Tesla, keep in mind that most everyone else does not share that view. Specifically let's look at companies whose job it is to pay attentention to the battery field, Lux Research... Didn't they post some crazy high 380$ number not too long ago? And they, as best I could tell, didn't have stake in saying down with Tesla and look at this other technology that I am trying to misdirect you toward. They put a decent amount of work into how they concluded their pricing.

To that end, people have pushed around numbers on hypothetical storage products using a hypothetical pack cost for the Model S battery, all shooting in like the 10k+ range. Again we all thought this was a crazy number, but for those outside of our circle (and there are a LOT of people outside our circle here on TMC) that might have seemed reasonable and even logical.

So while I don't view the announcement as a surprise I think we here on TMC are not the majority of shareholders/interested parties.

I mean, honestly ask yourself when you were last truly surprised by anything Tesla formally announced? Let's work backward,

Stationary storage, known for at LEAST 15 months (JB speech given in Jan 14)... Nope no surprise
70D... I'll admit minor shock at this timing and it being out of the blue with no fanfare... But many long suspected they would have to raise the 60 in order to hit at least 200 miles on the X, this hasn't hit the full story yet as we don't see the X, yet... But mark my words, the X70D will magically have like 208 miles of range or some such...
Dual Motors On the S: hinted at publicly by the company like about a year prior at those EU town halls that the company did.
Autopilot: that's been the talk of the company for like a year or so before the announcement as well. There was even a tweet by Elon about hiring people specifically for that field.

I could go on, and you could likely apply this to core parts of the company's business as well, like factory upgrades, and other such things. We don't tend to get as much of a heads up on some of these things, but I think the only true surprise I have experienced was the Q4 pre-announce by Jerome two January's ago. If none of this was a shock to the average trader/shareholder, then why all the volatility in the price? Clearly the price is moving based on the uncertainty of the company at the time, but yet here we sit knowing well in advance of most of these news events.

the hard part is not trying to figure out what the company is doing... Oh no, that's easy. I have never traded a company that I had this much transparency into their business and what was happening and coming in the future.

nay, the hard part is determining how the market is going to react today, tomorrow, this week... And how long it will take for the market to realize what we have known all along... There is no spoon.
 
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