Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[eloder]

Agreed, I think it's already built into the stock price, regardless of any success or failure by spacex.

The fact that the rocket came close to landing on the barge once, and is even able to do it on test flights, is amazing enough for engineering. As far as I know his current NASA contracts also are still profitable even if the rocket crashes every single time (after payload delivery).

 

[AlMc]

Agreed, I think it's already built into the stock price, regardless of any success or failure by spacex.

The fact that the rocket came close to landing on the barge once, and is even able to do it on test flights, is amazing enough for engineering. As far as I know his current NASA contracts also are still profitable even if the rocket crashes every single time (after payload delivery).

i agree with those who see small temporary price fluctuations (1%) with any positive or negative news from Space X.

 

[doggusfluffy]

This was an interesting listen touching on SolarCity and solar in general.
Episode 616: How Solar Got Cheap : Planet Money : NPR

 

[sundaymorning]

I don't think the analogy works. Steve Jobs didn't spend 50% of his time working/talking about Pixar. He was perceived more as a silent owner of the company. Failure would not have been directly linked to him.

In Elon's case: he is directly involved with Space X and has made many controversial (some may call them "far fetched") predictions/decisions. If Space X fails it would reinforce the perception that he often exaggerates and cannot be trusted.

"Humans on Mars? This guy can't even get people to orbit. He's a fraudster that has built fake companies on the back of the government for personal wealth. He's crazy. His other company has been lying for ages about demand. Short TSLA".

I'm in doubt that the media will go that far in scrutinizing Space X, reason being? They are attempting something that has never been done before. Hence, failure is accepted, understandable and expected, there is nothing to compare Space X to. Whereas if Tesla fails at anything, the media can compare them to BMW, Mercs, Audi, Porsche, Detroit, etc.; the old catch phrase "EVs have been in existence for 100 years yet little progress has been made" can be thrown around.

The culture built around rocket science is completely different than automobiles, failure is part of the equation. Whereas a car must be perfect because it is simpler to make and we sit in it everyday. Nations perceived space as a race, first one to do it wins, brings honor to their national identity and becomes the envy of the world. Even when astronauts die in an accident they are hailed as heroes, the nation mourns and units in such failures; on the flip side, success and we share each others' joys... we can look back in our past history and see there are many of these examples in the U.S.

I honestly do not remember past Space X failures affecting Tesla much, or at all. Just my opinion.

 

[Lump]

RWD not an option, all models Duel motor. ????


IMO, all of these changes from the range anxiety tweet, color changes, 70D & now all models duel motor only have been poorly announced.

 

[Lump]

You can subtract D from 85D for $5K reduction. 70D and P85D are fixed dual.

Thanks I missed that, keeping track of all the changes this past week hasn't been easy.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I spent last night reading old posts and I can't believe the depth of knowledge that most of you on this forum have when it comes to Tesla, investments and trading. The knowledge base is truly spectacular. The moment you realize that you are dealing with true professionals and are the lightweight of the bunch is eye opening. Looking forward to many more years of intelligent conversation.

 

[Hogfighter]

You can subtract D from 85D for $5K reduction. 70D and P85D are fixed dual.

Okay, that's bizarre.

 

[Krugerrand]

i agree with those who see small temporary price fluctuations (1%) with any positive or negative news from Space X.

A portion of that 1% may be from people wanting to be part of SpaceX, but can't so they buy some shares in Tesla instead.

 

[Lump]

Okay, that's bizarre.

There's more...
Spoiler is an option but its placed above standard equipment & more importantly above autopilot

 

[StephenM]

Space x has already proven itself with huge nasa contracts.
They are now pushing the technology to the limit, and I expect
their engineering skills to transfer to tesla.

This. IIRC Elon tapped his engineers at SpaceX to help with designing the titanium undershield after the f***s fiasco.

 

[Gtoffo]

I'm in doubt that the media will go that far in scrutinizing Space X, reason being? They are attempting something that has never been done before. Hence, failure is accepted, understandable and expected, there is nothing to compare Space X to. Whereas if Tesla fails at anything, the media can compare them to BMW, Mercs, Audi, Porsche, Detroit, etc.; the old catch phrase "EVs have been in existence for 100 years yet little progress has been made" can be thrown around.

The culture built around rocket science is completely different than automobiles, failure is part of the equation. Whereas a car must be perfect because it is simpler to make and we sit in it everyday. Nations perceived space as a race, first one to do it wins, brings honor to their national identity and becomes the envy of the world. Even when astronauts die in an accident they are hailed as heroes, the nation mourns and units in such failures; on the flip side, success and we share each others' joys... we can look back in our past history and see there are many of these examples in the U.S.

I honestly do not remember past Space X failures affecting Tesla much, or at all. Just my opinion.

Agreed.

The way I see it:
- Space X success the 13th = small bonus for Tesla
- Space X fail the 13th = nothing
- Space X fail overall or string of big failures = negative impact on Tesla

 

[austinEV]

Long term, spacex success is critical for Elon success which is critical for TM success.

If we are talking about "success on the 13th", there are two missions, one critical and one optional. The capsule to the ISS is critical, and the landing is a happy experiment.

Failure on dragon to iss: major, major issue. Irrational hit of tlsa stock, 3-4%
Success on dragon to iss: No change
Failure on landing/recovery: No change
Success on landing/recovery: happy news. Some irrational boost to tsla stock, 2%

My take. I am nervous about these missions more about the downside risk. The rest is just fun.

 

[daniel Ox9EFD]

There shouldn't be an effect on TSLA.

But as austinEV said we need to differentiate between a failure to deliver the payload to the ISS, which is a huge deal (since Orbital had a failure this leaves NASA naked), and on the other hand a failure to recover the booster, which is 50% expected, according to SpaceX.

 

[Papafox]

If SpaceX announces the results of the barge landing attempt before the market opens on Monday, we'll have a hard time determining if a successful landing is the cause of elevated TSLA stock price or if some other factor (such as a weekend to digest the upturn in prices) is responsible. On the other hand, if the successful barge landing is announced after the start of trading on Monday, we'll get a chance to see if there's an upward bump right after the news is released. Many of us expect no effect on TSLA if the barge landing is unsuccessful (because the task is so difficult and so unproven).

The other thing I'm waiting to watch is the minimum battery size and range for Model X. If the minimum battery is 70kwh and range is just a bit North of 200 miles, then I will tip my hat to Hogfighter and say, "well done". On the other hand, if 85kwh is the minimum Model X battery size and/or if range equals or exceeds 240 miles, then I will smile and realize that Model 3 will have a minimum of 240 mile range, too. Can't wait to see!

 

[dmckinstry]

Sold out bull reasoning .

Really sold out bull reasoning says: On April 30th Elon makes the stationary storage announcement and adds "By the way, we are still projecting 2015 sales of 55,000 (i.e. our production is ramping up as planned), but if you haven't already put in your order for a Model S or Model X, don't expect delivery before June of 2016."

That would drive the SP through the roof. OK, so I'm only dreaming.

 

[Zak333]

Good place to see the Launch Time - I think it will happen day time around 1:30pm ECT
Launch 22 | SpaceX CRS-6

 

[ggr]

If SpaceX announces the results of the barge landing attempt before the market opens on Monday, we'll have a hard time determining if a successful landing is the cause of elevated TSLA stock price or if some other factor (such as a weekend to digest the upturn in prices) is responsible. On the other hand, if the successful barge landing is announced after the start of trading on Monday, we'll get a chance to see if there's an upward bump right after the news is released. Many of us expect no effect on TSLA if the barge landing is unsuccessful (because the task is so difficult and so unproven).

The launch will happen (or not) at around 16:30 Eastern time on Monday. It's an "instantaneous window" which means they launch on time or not at all. Any delay will cause them to postpone for a full day +/- a few minutes (I can't remember whether it's plus or minus...). Anyway, the landing happens (or doesn't) about 5 minutes after the launch. Good luck to SpaceX!

Edit: I initially got the time wrong, it is 16:30 EDT, after market close. Thanks for correcting me Papafox.

 

[Papafox]

Good place to see the Launch Time - I think it will happen day time around 1:30pm ECT
Launch 22 | SpaceX CRS-6

Looks like about 1:30pm PDT or 4:30pm EDT on Monday, according to the countdown clock. The market will be closed by the time we know.

 

[InTheShadows]

I just visited this webpage:

Toyota Mirai – The Turning Point

And looking over it it is amazing to me at how much Toyota is now copying what Tesla is doing. From the graphic of the car in the shadows to the opening of the patents. The whole page smells like desperation to me and now that they are the major sponsor of the Olympics and are supposedly going to use that as the launch pad for their fcv.