-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Gerardf
Active Member
Hope Mr. Left can see the TSLA share price live during the interview that is going on now....
TSLA up 4 $ and close to 260 now.
Edit:
His answer when asked on his TSLA short position .. : So it is a new day.
TSLA up 4 $ and close to 260 now.
Edit:
His answer when asked on his TSLA short position .. : So it is a new day.
mejojo
Active Member
Also remember the huge "China" drop that kicked it all off....you are right 100 pts had almost nothing really to do with X doors.
Electrifying
Member
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Listened to Left. He argues from personal incredulity. Good luck with that.
Krugerrand
Meow
Testing bed for use in Model 3, which in turn provides more headroom for passengers especially those in the back. Besides, of course, offering better visibility and a more enjoyable drive in general for all occupants.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Nexus is a Google brand.
Manufactured by Huawei.
Huawei gets second billing with their name in small print.
Would like a new headline that says Andrew Left left Citron. Right, right??
Gerasimental
Member
Wow I really did not think I would ever see those Jan 17 LEAPS go green again.
Anyone else of the opinion that today's M3 tweet won't move the stock much?
Model 3 demand is clearly spectacularly higher than almost anyone anticipated. Whether the tweet says 300k or 400k doesn't really make a difference to that narrative. A week ago, 100k woudl have been considered a great number for the stock.
If, of course, it comes in at something like 500, showing reservations have actually accelerated, that might be enough to give the stock yet another boost, but short of a real shock number like that I don't see a huge impact.
Anyone else of the opinion that today's M3 tweet won't move the stock much?
Model 3 demand is clearly spectacularly higher than almost anyone anticipated. Whether the tweet says 300k or 400k doesn't really make a difference to that narrative. A week ago, 100k woudl have been considered a great number for the stock.
If, of course, it comes in at something like 500, showing reservations have actually accelerated, that might be enough to give the stock yet another boost, but short of a real shock number like that I don't see a huge impact.
This may in fact be a short squeeze that is occurring which I define as some amount of net shorts closing out positions to help drive the stock price up
MarkIt is VERY OFTEN WRONG, particularly in unusual trading scenarios...their proprietary algos they use to give their best 'estimates' of short interest are only somewhat reliable when the stocks trading conditions are relatively normal. Look at the volume the past few days, is that normal????
The only true data point we have is the NASDAQ short interest publication which comes out every two weeks and is backwards looking. Also people often misunderstand the correct date to reference by 3 business days because it goes off of a snapshot on 'settlement date' which really is a snapshot of 3 business days prior since it takes 3 business days for US stocks to settle.
If i remember correct, SBenson had been claiming that MarkIt was stating record high short interest around March 10th as well a few days after we broke 200...this was the last true short interest data point given from the last NASDAQ publication which was disseminated on March 24th reflecting settlement of March 15th which was really for end of trading Thursday March 10th (3 business days prior to March 15th).
Please see my latest post in the short interest thread for more detail on why MarkIt is often wrong and keep the more detailed/technical discussion on short interest in that thread if possible.
Okay, thanks... Kind of what I thought, but I don't know - thought Forbes was more credible
Forbes probably is more accurate than this "MarkIt" service when there is an anomaly going on with how the stock is being traded (e.g. during a 'short squeeze' for example)...we won't truly know if this is a short squeeze or not though until after NASDAQ publishes their metrics, and then it is almost two weeks in retrospect for each time they disseminate that data
Good point, nonetheless it's still overkill, but if it helps sells substantially more Xs .....
.......
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
So as on ongoing due diligence in my TSLA investment I feel it's important to hear and listen to what prominent shorts say. Granted, the interview with Andrew Left was short but this is what I heard:
- He is short at this price due to fear of future lack of profitability. Hard to argue with because so many variables go in to a valuation model. I disagree with his model.
- He said the S sold at 90k when it was supposed to be a 50k car. Same with X. Thus he doubts a 35k Model 3 and that it will be profitable. My interpretation is he thinks he has uncovered that Elon and Tesla are liars, he builds his short thesis (sometimes very successfully) on uncovering lies and fraud. In this case he's completely wrong.
I'd also invoke common sense: it's not like Model S buyers thought they were buying a 50k car but then the invoice said 90k. People didn't want the lower priced car. It's better for the company to sell cars with higher ASP and higher margins, it gives more revenue. His judgment is clouded so he misses pure facts.
- He is short at this price due to fear of future lack of profitability. Hard to argue with because so many variables go in to a valuation model. I disagree with his model.
- He said the S sold at 90k when it was supposed to be a 50k car. Same with X. Thus he doubts a 35k Model 3 and that it will be profitable. My interpretation is he thinks he has uncovered that Elon and Tesla are liars, he builds his short thesis (sometimes very successfully) on uncovering lies and fraud. In this case he's completely wrong.
I'd also invoke common sense: it's not like Model S buyers thought they were buying a 50k car but then the invoice said 90k. People didn't want the lower priced car. It's better for the company to sell cars with higher ASP and higher margins, it gives more revenue. His judgment is clouded so he misses pure facts.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Thx JHM from FHM (my initials).
I gotta tell ya, I WAS a little upset with you (or anyone) delaying delivery at quarter end. I want all owners to be sensitive to how important hitting guidance is for any public company. But, most new owners (non investors) couldn't care less. It's just reality.
However, with your case (and other new MX owners) you clearly got surprised ('slammed') with a sudden surprise delivery at qtr end. Not your fault at all. Some reasonable percentage of these new owners can't quickly take delivery. Year-end is always the worst qtr for this. Holiday travel, etc
Finally, clearly even if every single customer was able to take delivery at qtr end it would NOT have made any difference. Tesla was still going to miss guidance by a wide margin
Thanks again for your detailed explanation
Last edited:
Thank you.
Also, is anyone preparing for a massive surge following the announcement of new M3 res numbers?
I wouldn't even dare to guess because there are opposing trends in play:
Diminishing rate (of reservations per hour) because most early adopters who know of M3 have already reserved.
Increasing rate because knowledge of M3 is still diffusing into the enormous population group that has never heard of Tesla, the automaker.
The number alone will be interesting, but even more interesting IMO will be Musk's comments (if any) that come with it.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
