Hard to say. Australia doesn't have the US production based incentive so this motivates US people to get in the line earlier. Plus a base Model 3 will cost 60k AUD in Australia, which is 30% more than the 35k USD. These being said, Sydney and Melbourne are the two mega cities so population/store is much higher than most stores in US.
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200 stores x 100 people is 20000 in-store reservations. I think as I posted before that total online reservations can reach over 20x the first day in-store reservations up to 2017. This would mean we would get 400k reservations.
10x would be 200k which I will go with for now.
No, the data does not support it, crazy or not.
If there are lines it means at-least 100 people will reserve and 100 on average per store means 20k just from in-store reservations. Ben Kalo's estimate is too low.
The goal is to find the most likely number, not to low-ball it.
10x would be 200k which I will go with for now.
No, the data does not support it, crazy or not.
If there are lines it means at-least 100 people will reserve and 100 on average per store means 20k just from in-store reservations. Ben Kalo's estimate is too low.
The goal is to find the most likely number, not to low-ball it.
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why do lines mean 'at least 100 people'?
a line can be 20-30 people, or even just 5-10 people.
Also, I'm sure there will be some stores with no lines, why does EVERY store automatically have a line?
Also, even if it was 100 people, couldn't some of the people be part of the same family, husband and wife, or group of friends supporting one friend and interested in the excitement so they go with the one friend who is putting down the deposit, etc.
I'm just playing devil's advocate to the bull theories on here as we need more of that...everyone here seems to be thinking all luky charms and rainbows. I just think there is a reality check that Ben Kalo just gave us, 15k reservations in the first week would be a big success he said. He is a smart dude being paid well to follow everything about TSLA more than us.
Doesn't mean it can't get to 100k reservations by the end of the year, but in the first 24 hours??? that seems ridiculous to me. I'd love to be wrong, but let's not all get caught up in the hype train being driven on here.
There is a ton of uncertainty and we will know more the longer the day goes. But the little we know now does support a very high total reservation number but with a great degree of uncertainty.
If there is 30 people at the opening there will be over 100 during the day.
sub
Active Member
I might walk the line at the Rocklin store tomorrow and ask people how many they are reserving, I'll post that info here if I do it, I want to feel out the crowd first.
mmd
Active Member
Yeah, so let's not high ball it either. Think about these possibilities:
- Two people may be standing in line to order 1 car.
- 1 person may be ordering two.
- There may be some reporters/spectators just enjoying free coffee and bagels.
The next wave of reservations may come after people actually see the reveal tomorrow. Till then, 10k store reservations seems likely
I, too, thought 100k within 24 hours (including employee early reservations) is nuts. I have changed my mind after seeing the enthusiasm over the past week. I don't think it can really hit 100k within 24 hours, but 50k is very doable.
Fallenone, your valuable comments (thanks!) to my "What If.." thread led me to a less "unlikely" idea on which I started another thread. I would value any criticism, yours especially, if you can spare a moment to check it out.
The message is surprisingly short and simple. If plausible (still a WAG), I suggest you may find it more interesting.
edit] It's relevant to this thread because of its effect on reservations.
Two things:
re: lines in Oz; remember, (or look in the Aus/NZ area of the Forum) there are only 553 known/spotted Teslas in Oz. So a ~50 person line is 10% of the entire installed base! I find this amazing and impressive. (My daughter is going in later today.)
re: cannibalization; Production of the Model S and Model X is still production constrained. So what if 30% of potential S/X buyers decide to defer to Model ≣? I think there will be at least that many potential buyers who wake up, see the lines, and think "Gee, maybe I should look at Tesla cars!" The cars cater (to some extent) to different buyers, so I am not worried about cannibalization. Certainly our deposit tomorrow will be for a different purpose than our existing vehicles.
re: lines in Oz; remember, (or look in the Aus/NZ area of the Forum) there are only 553 known/spotted Teslas in Oz. So a ~50 person line is 10% of the entire installed base! I find this amazing and impressive. (My daughter is going in later today.)
re: cannibalization; Production of the Model S and Model X is still production constrained. So what if 30% of potential S/X buyers decide to defer to Model ≣? I think there will be at least that many potential buyers who wake up, see the lines, and think "Gee, maybe I should look at Tesla cars!" The cars cater (to some extent) to different buyers, so I am not worried about cannibalization. Certainly our deposit tomorrow will be for a different purpose than our existing vehicles.
dc_h
Active Member
It should have similar miles as S and X. Smaller, simpler and focus on ease of manufacturing. Model 3 is a different market from S/X as Escalade is different from SRX or A4 from A8. Minimum miles s/b 220 and 280-300 on top version.
mmd
Active Member
May be not for London. But check Norway. 5 million people, 12 stores. Oslo area alone has 5 stores. Anyway, there is no definitev relationship here how many people we see tomorrow
Fun times till tomorrow evening.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Actually, I think they do.
Most of those people standing in line outside the Apple Store during the iPhone 6 launch in NYC weren't buying the phone for themselves. They were buying on behalf of gray-market wholesalers from China. The wholesalers apparently distribute wads of cash for people in America to buy the phones.
A new style iPhone typically costs $650 and up to buy in cash. The Plus models in 64GB are $850. That's not that much less than a $1,000 deposit on a Model 3. If a gray market wholesaler from China wanted to scoop up a bunch of Model 3's, all they'd have to do is distribute $1,000 in cash to a bunch of straw buyers to make the reservations. When it's time to make payment, it's trivial to bring a case of Benjamins down to the Tesla Store (assuming 40-50k out the door, that's only 400-500 $100 bills).
The big risk here is that the $1k deposit is tied up for an unknown amount of time. The iPhone is fast cash. Gray marketers flip the iPhones a few days later in China to rich people at 500%+ markup.
Getting the big payoff from a Model 3 would be a more difficult an lengthy process due to transport time.
May be not for London. But check Norway. 5 million people, 12 stores. Oslo area alone has 5 stores. Anyway, there is no definitev relationship here how many people we see tomorrow
Yeah, so Norway likely will get over 100 per person if the stores in Australia has lines.
Anyway, we will know more soon but it is fun to speculate.
And about analysts, they are conservative for a reason. Being too cautious while still have a buy rating is the best way to play things for them.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I think he should do a bit more research. The Leaf got 2700 reservations in the first 3 hours and 6635 in just 3 days. I think the Model 3 will do quite a bit better than that (despite a 10x higher reservation fee).
Early demand strong for Nissan's electric Leaf - CNN.com
Tesla is no longer some relatively unknown company like before the Model S was released. I think 15k will be easily surpassed in the first 24 hours. 100k I don't think is that realistic, but seeing some of the latest hype, it's not impossible.
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