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To your question on the analysts:
Obviously we can have no way of even guessing what information Musk has given analysts. My guess is that Musk is keeping them very much in the dark deliberately.
April will be Musk's month...no doubt about that in my mind..he has information to hand that he is releasing very strategically.
If I'm right on that guess, it will be very difficult for an analyst to put out a statement...I mean, they see the large number of reservations but have no understanding yet about how production might be ramped. So, on what basis can they calculate anything useful without risk of looking super silly as soon as Q1 ER?
Elon promised to tweet 3 day total tonight but didn't!
I misunderstood Elon's tweet initially to mean Sunday night -- which would make sense since it would include numbers for the weekend. Maybe my misunderstanding was correct.
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As @doctoxics posted, the wording is "Going forward, Tesla will publish the number of new car deliveries within three days of quarter end." No distinction of business days, and they have yet to surpass 72 hours from a quarter close regardless of weekend. I wouldn't be surprised to see that change, but I don't understand your certainty.
Tesla Delivers 10,030 Vehicles in Q1 of 2015 (NASDAQ:TSLA)
If we get good enough Q1 deliveries, I will then comment very clearly why that might not be delusional at all and just for the record today, I will say 5m minimum and 20m maximum. Of course, 20m reservations isn't just pulling the rug out from beneath the ICE OEMs, it is totally removing the floor that supports them for the next 10 years. Musk is swinging for the fences and it delights me to see it.
Krugerrand
Meow
You're talking, instead of listening.
The goal of the master plan can not be achieved by taking baby steps. We don't have that kind of time. We don't have that kind of time! The huge payoff is that humans get to live on this planet for many more millennia.
Yes, OF COURSE there's a risk in expanding too quickly. The stumble in China had nothing to do with Tesla taking a too big step, it had to do with a small group of dickheads trying to game the system instead of doing the right thing.
And if you think Elon gives a crap about becoming 'a laughing stock', you haven't been paying attention. He's already been laughed at, and he's been berated by people he's highly respected. And look where he is now. I'd say he's in a pretty good position to laugh right back at them.
Krugerrand
Meow
Millions of reservations? That's not happening... Musk even said they didn't expect 200k before part 2 of the Model 3 unveil. But honestly look at his tweets and the numbers, the reservations per hour have gone down drastically. 20m in the next two decades? Maybe... But even that is 1m/year and their Fremont factory (if FULLY SCALED) can *only* produce 550,000 cars (TOTAL, not just M3)/year.
Well then other sources are getting it wrong. Thanks for clarifying.
Krugerrand
Meow
Of course they're getting it wrong. Nothing new there. Rule #1: Don't believe everything you read just because it's on the Internet.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Ya. I'd like TWO things to happen with respect to production of M3
#1. Increase their production capacity vs original plan. (Obviously)
#2 Begin production SOONER than Q4'17
Not sure what the critical-path items will be to launching SOONER but:
- clearly GF will be producing the M3 'new form factor' cylindrical cells this year
- robot body-in-white line probably isn't critical path
- assembly-line build out takes lots of time...
- paint shop is done/ready
Can you please start to post what you actually think (expected value based on facts and predictions based on those facts) and not what will give you the most negative or positive attention.
Yes, Kruggerand, agree on China...nevertheless an error of doing business not foreseen by Tesla management.
On the laughing stock, yep agree there to a point also. He actually enjoys being a laughing stock because he has so much courage in his convictions that he knows he'll get the last laugh...and laugh longest.
But he won't stick his neck out so far that he cannot raise capital when he needs to. He is inwardly grandiose but outwardly pragmatic.
If he did sprout off too much fantasmagorical stuff (just because he can) and it later turned out that capital came at a higher cost to shareholders...well, then it defeats his purpose. He keeps the revealing of his plans just about in the range of what we ordinary folk and the markets can say "...Um...you know what...I guess that sounds plausible...Musk may not be so delusional after all."
There will be resentment for sure and that is one part of the risk going up. The sum total of risk will go up enormously, but they still have to go through it or die more slowly. I think the death can go quick even if they don't do anything. It is enough with a decline of mid to high single digit % and then a recession.
But just because you work in a ICE company does not mean you are against the EV revolution. Many people just landed there by chance. They probably also don't realize how hard it is to transform the company, so in a way I think some workers and engineers will be just like the customers "Why are you/we not doing a serious competing BEV when Tesla is?" and assume it won't affect their job security as much as it will. Also there will still be demand for ICE for a while, there is no EV truck and still no sub $35k car so the ICE line can still go on for a while so some engineers and workers in the company can still work with that.
There is also big auto in countries with less strong unions that won't have this problem. I think personally that GM and Ford are among those that will have it hardest partly because of the union as you point out.
I fully agree with the problem of changing core competence from mechanical engineering and ICE to electrical, chemical engineering and software. It is another huge one for the risk pile.
One thing that is interesting is that they are still doing dividends, even VW
. I think this shows that that they both underestimate the problems that lies ahead and that they are too focused on the short term stock holders. Both of these are factors that points to passiveness.
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Lango, I think that with Musk you won't do well to look solely into facts, a record of what has happened and not what will happen. We have company announcements and statements which are much more useful for gauging company intent.
But going further to try to gauge company intent, I look for clues, tacit messages hidden in tweets for example. Some serious positioning is going on behind the public facade. We can only speculate.
What is investing if it does not include some speculation? Tune out if you are not comfortable with that.
@Ukland Wombat
I would like to ask you to stop replying to my posts please. I find your reimagining Musk as a juvenile to be intellectually offensive to me and toe-curlingly disrespectful to Elon Musk who under no circumstances no matter what he does in business derserves to be smeared with the notion of thinking or feeling the way you do about anything at all - and I for one want no part of it.
I would like to ask you to stop replying to my posts please. I find your reimagining Musk as a juvenile to be intellectually offensive to me and toe-curlingly disrespectful to Elon Musk who under no circumstances no matter what he does in business derserves to be smeared with the notion of thinking or feeling the way you do about anything at all - and I for one want no part of it.
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