-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I am relieved. This looks very orderly, unlike Apple Store wait lines, which basically become trash-strewn refugee camps filled with scalpers working on behalf of Asian exporters.
I think a reasonable assumption is that total reservations at the end of 2017 is going to be atleast 20x of in-store reservations tomorrow. So if we get 20k in-store which means around 100 per store? Or how many stores do they have? So given that a short queue is totally fine.
Actually, it's a 2+ year wait for Australia, plus these are the people who are there an hour before it opens and doesn't include people who will arrive when the store opens and those who will trickle in throughout the day.
I have just started another thread. It's relevant to this thread. The message is surprisingly short. It may interest you.
I'm very curious what Tesla is doing to prevent Chinese scalpers from placing thousands of reservations.
The iPhone 6 Lines Weren't Actually Filled With the 'Chinese Mafia'
BriansTesla
Old school meets new tech
I also think that by the time the M3 is being delivered to The Aussies, the difference between between AU001 and AU275 will be a few days.
mmd
Active Member
May be a problem in China, not for any other stores outside China. You can't put a Model S in your carry on luggage and fly to China
But you could use your entire extended family and friends network to make a few thousand deposits.
Ahem. so? Model 3 will be delivered based on the geographic regions... Scalpers simply don't have the ability to make reservations outside China to sell to buyers in China...But you could use your entire extended family and friends network to make a few thousand deposits.
Looks like the lines are increasing after the store opened for business
Attachments
May be a problem in China, not for any other stores outside China. You can't put a Model S in your carry on luggage and fly to China
Not with that defeatist attitude!
Someone get a picture of the Bolt reservation line.
A quick and dirty conversion of line-up reservation number at store open.
Based on the work initiated by @Tam and streamlined by @Microfrost , Sydney+Melbourne together has 6 people participated in this sheet
Model3-CampOut-LineUp-OnLine
Reports are saying those two stores have about 110 people when the doors opened. So we get a 18.3 ratio. Apply this to the tally of the spreadsheet, we get 12k people waiting at the doors before they open across the world.
However, I think US residents are more aware of TMC and therefore have a higher turnout ratio for the spreadsheet. So the ratio for US stores may be a bit lower. OTOH, many stores are not in the spreadsheet.
Based on the work initiated by @Tam and streamlined by @Microfrost , Sydney+Melbourne together has 6 people participated in this sheet
Model3-CampOut-LineUp-OnLine
Reports are saying those two stores have about 110 people when the doors opened. So we get a 18.3 ratio. Apply this to the tally of the spreadsheet, we get 12k people waiting at the doors before they open across the world.
However, I think US residents are more aware of TMC and therefore have a higher turnout ratio for the spreadsheet. So the ratio for US stores may be a bit lower. OTOH, many stores are not in the spreadsheet.
But you could use your entire extended family and friends network to make a few thousand deposits.
Simple. I think Tesla current has at least 100 stores/service centers? 100 people X 2 reservations per person X 100 stores = 20,000.
I can't find the exact number of stores/galleries/service centers.
12,000 Tesla employees X 2 = 24,000
30,000 Deposits from Model S or X owners (Purely a guess)
50,000 (About 5%) of the 956K people who follow Tesla Motors on Twitter.
2,000 people at the unveiling
____________________
= 126,000 Deposits
I realize this is not a statistically valid way to reach 100,000 + nonetheless it leaves plenty of room for error
If queues are like this I think we will reach over 300k reservations at the end of 2017 when production starts.
I think the number of stores worldwide is more like 200. US alone has about 100?Simple. I think Tesla current has at least 100 stores/service centers? 100 people X 2 reservations per person X 100 stores = 20,000.
I can't find the exact number of stores/galleries/service centers.
12,000 Tesla employees X 2 = 24,000
30,000 Deposits from Model S or X owners (Purely a guess)
50,000 (About 5%) of the 956K people who follow Tesla Motors on Twitter.
2,000 people at the unveiling
____________________
= 126,000 Deposits
I realize this is not a statistically valid way to reach 100,000 + nonetheless it leaves plenty of room for error
mmd
Active Member
Simple. I think Tesla current has at least 100 stores/service centers? 100 people X 2 reservations per person X 100 stores = 20,000.
I can't find the exact number of stores/galleries/service centers.
12,000 Tesla employees X 2 = 24,000
30,000 Deposits from Model S or X owners (Purely a guess)
50,000 (About 5%) of the 956K people who follow Tesla Motors on Twitter.
2,000 people at the unveiling
____________________
= 126,000 Deposits
I realize this is not a statistically valid way to reach 100,000 + nonetheless it leaves plenty of room for error
OK, thanks for explaining! For a while, I thought, you are thinking 100 people show up each hour for 2 days. I think, there are a hundred stores worldwide.
But I think, the two underlined lines in your estimate have considerable overlap.
Also, we should remember that the number of stores in Australia is very few ( 2 in Melbourne, 1 in Sydney). Compare that to cities in US & Europe, where store density is much higher. I would estimate lower per store reservations in US & Europe. Will see tomorrow.
Simple. I think Tesla current has at least 100 stores/service centers? 100 people X 2 reservations per person X 100 stores = 20,000.
I can't find the exact number of stores/galleries/service centers.
12,000 Tesla employees X 2 = 24,000
30,000 Deposits from Model S or X owners (Purely a guess)
50,000 (About 5%) of the 956K people who follow Tesla Motors on Twitter.
2,000 people at the unveiling
____________________
= 126,000 Deposits
I realize this is not a statistically valid way to reach 100,000 + nonetheless it leaves plenty of room for error
Let's not get all crazy on here! I catch myself starting to think that 100k reservations in the first 24 hours is possible after reading all the uber-bulls on here, which I am too.
Ben Kalo was just on CNBC and mentioned that he thought it would be a tremendous success just to show 15,000 reservations being placed in the first week as it took 3 years to get that many reservations for the Model S. This is more realistic in my opinion to what will happen, 10-20k reservationsin the first 24 hours would be super amazing but not likely. It may more than likely be less than 10k total reservations in that first 24 hours.
P.S. As DaveT, Flux, and others mentioned, this thread has been mostly hard to follow for a while with so many long posts/essays that should have really just been email conversations between the same 3-4 people writing them, not long posts on here eating up eye space. Today it seems to have gotten better with less of that going on, hopefully the quality of what this thread was intended to be is heading back in the right direction.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
