Osborne Effect

[Ukland Wombat]

Elon has stated that he was really expecting M3 reservations to take off after Part 2 which does make me wonder why?

I am interested to learn the exact wording and context where Musk said that. Was it during an interview?

I am well aware of this tweet:

Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk Mar 31
"Thanks for tuning in to the Model 3 unveil Part 1! Part 2 is super next level, but that's for later…"

but not that Musk has already forecast M3 reservations taking off after Part 2.
@malcolm, have you any reference? Much appreciated if you share.

My 2c on Tesla Osborning itself:

Nothing to worry about for years to come. Tesla is expanding into a vacuum of nearly total Tesla 'unawareness'. A minuscule proportion of global car-buyers knows what Tesla is. Tesla will have no trouble selling every car they can make as long as EVs are grossly outnumbered by ICE vehicles.

The early adopter types (members of this forum) are (even today in 2016) the only category of buyers to own a Tesla. Early adopters might be overlooking the fact that the mainstream market is far far more numerous and will eventually select a Tesla in preference to an ICE for the exact same reasons as they did.

 

[malcolm]

I was going on this one:

Twitter

 

[ohmman]

I believe Tesla is aware of this risk and is likely to improve the S significantly in the coming two years. My current plan is to replace my S with a Model 3 in 2018 -- unless the 2018 Model S is more compelling. I'm guessing Tesla will make that a difficult decision for me.

One other factor - the 3 is approaching levels where it is reserved beyond the numbers supported by the tax credit. Realizing there are priority reservations for more expensive builds, etc., it's possible we'll reach a point where people realize they won't be able to get a 3 and the tax credit. However, they may be able to get an S. So things might swing back a bit if customers decide to chase the tax credit.

 

[30seconds]

My understanding of Osborne effect is clearly different - to me it is more about people waiting to buy a more advanced version of the same good once it is announced. May sound similar to what is being discussed here, but I don't think this holds as for luxury car buyers the Model 3 is not a replacement for the Model S. To be honest part of being a top end luxury car buyer is showing people that you can purchase something out of their price range (hence luxury brands), more people buying the 3 makes it less desirable in this range

 

[Ukland Wombat]

I was going on this one:

Twitter

Thanks for confirmation, Malcolm. It shows your inference is correct. It's what I was hoping for.

 

[david_42]

I was an Osborne dealer and the Osborne 2100 was a major step up and a move into the mainstream of IBM-compatable machines. Osbone's existing MPM machines were obsolete more or less the moment IBM stepped into the market. The Model 3 isn't in the same class as either the S or X. Many S and X owners have made reservations for 3s, but I doubt they will sell their current Teslas when the 3s are delivered. Most of the demand for Model 3s are the pent-up desires of people that can't afford a S or X, or people like my wife, who thinks they are both way too big.

 

[david_42]

I'd like to add, the Osborne situation was much more like the Model 3 had been on the market for 18 months and Musk announces the Model S - for the same price!

 

[number12]

Forget 3 launch. Articles like this

Tesla is reportedly working on its own chip for self-driving with AMD and GlobalFoundries

+ steady plummeting of my resale value make me want to wait (Osborne) as long as humanly possible.