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I missed Rob's podcast with November production, do you know which one it was? I saw a different guy who had the same total but 55k Ys and 36k 3s. Rob's numbers make more sense, though they still show an unusual build in Model 3 inventory.I have not seen any discussion of the recent MIC production figures. Rob Maurer covers these consistently and for November reported a total of 90,802 which was divided into 58,471 Y and 32,331 Model 3.
Panasonic slid 4680 series production to the first half of FY25, so April-September 2024. I don't know if Tesla plans to make 4680s there. People keep saying Semi will use 4680, but I have to think customer feedback will drive them toward LFP..... and that V2 production is also planned for Giga Nevada. The original date for the latter was Q3 this year but I am guessing it has slipped as I have not heard it is online (and the GF extension that was spoken about earlier this year for both 4680 and Semi production does not seem to have happened yet). If this status is incorrect please let me know.
The podcast with the November figures is titled 'Tesla Fights Back Against Media, China Sales Updates...' from 4 days ago. I agree that Rob's 3/Y split makes more sense than the % split given earlier by @Piloly on X.I missed Rob's podcast with November production, do you know which one it was? I saw a different guy who had the same total but 55k Ys and 36k 3s. Rob's numbers make more sense, though they still show an unusual build in Model 3 inventory.
Panasonic slid 4680 series production to the first half of FY25, so April-September 2024. I don't know if Tesla plans to make 4680s there. People keep saying Semi will use 4680, but I have to think customer feedback will drive them toward LFP.
Apparently all 4680s are going to the Cybertruck and Austin Y's are only 2170 now. I forget if that was stated in one of the Munro interviews or information from Joe Tegtmeyer's drone videos, but either way it is not great news. There is also supposedly a significant effort to improve the humidity levels (0.2% RH?) for product consistency, but I am not sure if that is a constraining factor right now.If this is the case then the ramp of 4680 V2 is going to be central to the production of Model Y in the US along with the ramp of Cybertruck and Semi.
Rob's numbers are right. The production by model numbers are reported at DaaS-Auto (汽车产量_汽车产量数据_中国年产量数据-达示数据), but usually later than what people post on X, typically comes out this time of the monthThe podcast with the November figures is titled 'Tesla Fights Back Against Media, China Sales Updates...' from 4 days ago. I agree that Rob's 3/Y split makes more sense than the % split given earlier by @Piloly on X.
Thanks for the info re Panasonic 4680s.
Hope we dont see any further Model Y lines added, and instead just see faster or full utilization on existing lines (eg bringing Austin & Berlin lines up to full speed).Following on from my 2 previous posts:
It seems like the first part of 2024 production will be heavily dependent on GF China whilst 4680 production is brought on line to facilitate production elsewhere. If China continues with (or exceeds) the high production levels seen in November this approach should not pose any problems. Hopefully a good 4680 ramp and improved economic conditions will lead to Model Y production ramps in both Berlin and Austin later in 2024.
It is probably wise to heed Elon's comments about a slow Cybertruck ramp. Let's hope the S and X return to around 20k vehicles per quarter.
I reckon Austin compact line is more likely in 4-6 quarters.Hope we dont see any further Model Y lines added, and instead just see faster or full utilization on existing lines (eg bringing Austin & Berlin lines up to full speed).
The compact/$25k car is now less than 10 quarters away from a likely start of delivery (2026 at the latest, maybe mid/late 2025) - and once that happens it will cannibalize Y & 3 demand to some degree and any new lines added now would be redundant, unless they were to replace existing lines with a vastly more efficient unboxed style line. Maybe one exception would be a pilot unboxed style 4680 model 3 line for europe to avoid tariffs, but that might simply be a variation on the $25k model anyway.
Any reason for your optimism? Based on the Munro video yesterday it seems like most of the last section of the original building is pretty full, and that the overall structure is nearing full utilization. The south extension seems marginal for a complete new production line, and stamping and casting have limited excess capacity.I reckon Austin compact line is more likely in 4-6 quarters.
Giga Mexico was projected to be running in about a year from ground breaking, that means 4 quarters to stand up the Gen 3 line in a new factory. Austin should go faster.Any reason for your optimism? Based on the Munro video yesterday it seems like most of the last section of the original building is pretty full, and that the overall structure is nearing full utilization. The south extension seems marginal for a complete new production line, and stamping and casting have limited excess capacity.
It seems that the current Y line at Berlin is running reasonably close to capacity with the current shift pattern. Tesla posted about reaching 5k/week but I have not seen a 6k/week post. What they also stated was that they were aiming for cost efficiency and reducing some contract staff they had used during the ramp. It seems that they are loathe to go to a 24/7 shift pattern because that would be expensive in terms of higher shift costs and they might well lose staff that would not want to work shift patterns they see as more disruptive.Hope we dont see any further Model Y lines added, and instead just see faster or full utilization on existing lines (eg bringing Austin & Berlin lines up to full speed).
The compact/$25k car is now less than 10 quarters away from a likely start of delivery (2026 at the latest, maybe mid/late 2025) - and once that happens it will cannibalize Y & 3 demand to some degree and any new lines added now would be redundant, unless they were to replace existing lines with a vastly more efficient unboxed style line. Maybe one exception would be a pilot unboxed style 4680 model 3 line for europe to avoid tariffs, but that might simply be a variation on the $25k model anyway.
Pretty sure Giga Texas has more “unused“ capacity than you think. Elon is reviewing gen3 production line plans weekly now. Gen3 will be built first in Texas. Texas seems to have excess Giga press capacity (or will soon). 1Q25 is my guess for reasonable gen3 volume, maybe even 4Q24 start.Any reason for your optimism? Based on the Munro video yesterday it seems like most of the last section of the original building is pretty full, and that the overall structure is nearing full utilization. The south extension seems marginal for a complete new production line, and stamping and casting have limited excess capacity.
Ron Baron in a CNBC interview in November mentioned that the $25k car would be selling in "a year to a year and a half". I don't believe that Ron has inside information but he has enough information to make a credible estimate. I think we see a reveal of the Gen3 car in Q3 2024 and production in late Q1 2025 or early Q2 2025. But I would not be surprised to see a shorter timeline. There may be some skunkworks accelerating this.Any reason for your optimism? Based on the Munro video yesterday it seems like most of the last section of the original building is pretty full, and that the overall structure is nearing full utilization. The south extension seems marginal for a complete new production line, and stamping and casting have limited excess capacity.
It seems that the current Y line at Berlin is running reasonably close to capacity with the current shift pattern. Tesla posted about reaching 5k/week but I have not seen a 6k/week post. What they also stated was that they were aiming for cost efficiency and reducing some contract staff they had used during the ramp. It seems that they are loathe to go to a 24/7 shift pattern because that would be expensive in terms of higher shift costs and they might well lose staff that would not want to work shift patterns they see as more disruptive.
Increasing Y production at Berlin by activating a second line is necessary to satisfy the European Y demand. It has the following benefits:
Tesla sales outside the US do seem to be ramping faster than they are in the US - Piloly(?) on X indicated recently that sales in China are just overtaking the US. Tesla will make a judgement call as to when North American demand means it is time to bring a second Y line on stream in Austin.
- eliminates shipping costs and import duties on the Ys currently imported from China, thus improving margins
- allows Tesla to meet increasing demand for the Y in Europe
- allows Tesla to meet increasing Y demand (by redirecting those vehicles that would have gone to Europe) in China and APAC in general
The introduction of the Model Y did not lead to any significant cannibalizing of Model 3 sales, and it would be surprising if the same were not true when the compact/next gen platform is released. The TAM for the next gen platform is so large that if it is a compelling vehicle at the $25k target price it is likely demand will exceed production capacity for quite some time.
I agree 100%. That’s what I’m currently thinking too. The gen3 car reveal will blindside everyone since i predict that the reveal will be coincident with a price reveal and fairly quick production start, unlike what Tesla has done to date which is a vehicle looks reveal followed by real pricing and availability three years or more later. The reason Tesla will change this past pattern is two fold. One, they don’t want to Osborne Model 3 sales since it is currently the cost leader, and gen3 will of course be the new cost leader. Second, there is nothing to get excited about gen3 other than the price. It will be a smaller Model 3, ho hum. The price is the compelling feature, so that has to be part of the reveal, and they can’t price it unless they are close to production.Ron Baron in a CNBC interview in November mentioned that the $25k car would be selling in "a year to a year and a half". I don't believe that Ron has inside information but he has enough information to make a credible estimate. I think we see a reveal of the Gen3 car in Q3 2024 and production in late Q1 2025 or early Q2 2025. But I would not be surprised to see a shorter timeline. There may be some skunkworks accelerating this.
See the 7:00 mark of this video:
Reveal aside, will Tesla have the service/support infrastructure in place to support a Gen 3 high volume vehicle in 18 months?I agree 100%. That’s what I’m currently thinking too. The gen3 car reveal will blindside everyone since i predict that the reveal will be coincident with a price reveal and fairly quick production start, unlike what Tesla has done to date which is a vehicle looks reveal followed by real pricing and availability three years or more later. The reason Tesla will change this past pattern is two fold. One, they don’t want to Osborne Model 3 sales since it is currently the cost leader, and gen3 will of course be the new cost leader. Second, there is nothing to get excited about gen3 other than the price. It will be a smaller Model 3, ho hum. The price is the compelling feature, so that has to be part of the reveal, and they can’t price it unless they are close to production.
When gen3 is revealed, and if production is imminent at that point, the stock should shoot up. Baron is calling for 5M gen3 cars alone, which is certainly possible. Of course Tesla will need more factories, but we’ll have Mexico on its way by then as well as a a few other factory location announcements. We should also start to hear supply chain rumors for gen3 throughout 2024.