Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Papafox]

Will be interesting to see if TSLA can assault 175 this week. The market makers have been vigilant in keeping TSLA from settling within about $1.50 of 175. A new development for Wednesday is that 170 calls have grown in number to over 50K calls and now the MMs really would like TSLA at least a penny below 170 on Friday's close. The thing that could screw up the MMs today would be better than expected guidance from the FOMC meeting results and subsequent Darth Powell rant. If things surprise to the high side then 175 could be breached. OTOH, if Powell does his usual scorched Earth rant, then we could see a dip below 170. Today, starting at 2pm, could be very interesting.

 

[Singuy]

OK, I’ve seen the interview from beginning to end.
And learned the hard way that there are better ways to spend my time.
TL;DR: Interviewer trying to score by trying to get under Elon’s skin about things like censorship on X.
Skip!
Advice.

I know better to watch an interview where the host just ask "does your mother know you are gay?" Type questions

 

[Snerruc]

Tesla's sales seem to focus on existing Tesla customers.

As I posted in another thread, they were very aggressive starting the last week of February, but they told me about the 10k free SC miles for the quarter, FSD transfer, $1k off for CT deposit, paint/interior color deal (incorrectly, that's another story), and that there would be price increases in the 2nd Q. They were basically saying with the potential price increases (was looking at a MX) I'd pay nearly $10k more if I didn't get delivery before April 1.

Both of my neighbors have Teslas and they were texted as well. Maybe it's a state thing or maybe we all opted in, but I've never had Tesla-corporate reach out so many times as they have in the last 2 months.

For me, Tesla has done everything except what would get me to buy. USS , Homelink, bright trim/ wheels, etc. All the stuff they removed.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Will be interesting to see if TSLA can assault 175 this week. The market makers have been vigilant in keeping TSLA from settling within about $1.50 of 175. A new development for Wednesday is that 170 calls have grown in number to over 50K calls and now the MMs really would like TSLA at least a penny below 170 on Friday's close. The thing that could screw up the MMs today would be better than expected guidance from the FOMC meeting results and subsequent Darth Powell rant. If things surprise to the high side then 175 could be breached. OTOH, if Powell does his usual scorched Earth rant, then we could see a dip below 170. Today, starting at 2pm, could be very interesting.

Is this manipulation and worthy of a letter to the SEC?

 

[WMTribe90]

Picking up our first Tesla vehicle today, a LR Model Y. Bought first shares in 2013 and have been accumulating and holding since. I was never a car guy, still not really, so it’s taking this long for me to buy the product because it’s not in my DNA to spend up on a vehicle. FWIW and to keep this somewhat on topic, the announcement that price would go up $1,000 in April worked on me and was the final push to pull the trigger. I also want to support the mission as more than a stock holder and this period between growth waves and high(ish) interest rates seemed like a good time to give Tesla some of my cash. It’ll be nice to spend time enjoying the product and less time worrying about the stock price or company short-term performance for a while too.

 

[mongo]

Giesige thinks the 4680 lines have been down retooling for gen2 Cybercell. Next update on production will be important.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770436891914940873

We knew from the Q3 2023 call that Line 2 was Cybercells and Line 1 (which produced the 20 million cells) was being reworked to also produce the +10% energy Cyber cells.
Q4 update in January had one production line running (number 2)
This 1000 Cyberpacks a week metric may be just Line 2 or possibly Lines 1&2.

 

[Musskiah]

Whoah is this for real? I fantasize about Tesla keeping quiet about the semi and getting way ahead of projections. I assume this is another hand-built one though. AFAIK the actual semi production line is nowhere near built yet.
Amazingly we may now get real FSD before semi. madness!

You are correct, these SR Semis it seems were built at the low volume pilot building. If you check Zaneglar YouTube channel he does drone flyovers of the high-volume Semi Factory. He refers to 2 "warehouse on wheels" AKA WOW. The new Semi Factory WILL NOT complete the $3.6B project at the Sparks Gigafactory, but instead a new building at the edge of the property is being erected. He talks about it here:

The latest video by Zaneglar shows they are making progress with culvert and utility pipes now. Lots of heavy equipment lined up now like watertrucks and excavators. About halfway through this video he brings up footage from 4 weeks ago for comparison:

His channel has a lot of short-ish videos where he drives by the low-volume existing factory to hand build Semis and fly-overs of the new Semi site. His narration is super informative - highly recommend!

 

[Knightshade]

For me, Tesla has done everything except what would get me to buy. USS , Homelink, bright trim/ wheels, etc. All the stuff they removed.

FWIW The homelink folks charge a fee for every car it's installed in regardless of the owner uses it or not- so Tesla removed it as standard and offers it as an option. for $300 to those who DO want it

https://www.tesla.com/support/homelink-faq

Folks with MyQ garage openers also have the option to use the native WiFi on their Tesla to control it (though MyQ charges you a fee to do that)

Tesla In-Vehicle Garage Control with myQ | myQ

Open and close your garage door from anywhere with the seamless Tesla in-vehicle garage control from myQ. Monitor your garage from the comfort of your car—hands free.

www.myq.com

 

[aronth5]

As someone who lives in the middle of nowhere - everything requires travel, not just getting vehicle service. If I have a heart attack/stroke, cut a foot off with my chainsaw, run over the spouse with my tractor - well, not sure even the medical helicopter gets here on time. My neighbor has a sign over his door - we don’t call 911. This specifically refers to police services and thusly is a warning to would be trespassers.

The idea is that service should be minimal for your Tesla. So far, that’s been true for me. I expect it to continue. Hopefully any service will not be of the ‘it won’t go’ type. In the event I have to drive several hours to get service, I’ll make it a multi task trip.

Lifestyle choice and thusly not an issue, let alone a huge one.

You're obviously the exception so in the larger picture your situation isn't particularly pertinent. A question was raised earlier in this thread wondering why so many people were still buying certain gas cars? The Civic for instance. The lack of service centers is a barrier to ownership for many many people. Hard to argue that.

 

[2daMoon]

You're obviously the exception so in the larger picture your situation isn't particularly pertinent. A question was raised earlier in this thread wondering why so many people were still buying certain gas cars? The Civic for instance. The lack of long history for the necessity of ICE service centers has left a mental barrier to BEV ownership for many many people. Hard to argue that, as they don't understand how there will be significantly less needed service for a BEV.

FTFY

 

[Papafox]

Is this manipulation and worthy of a letter to the SEC?

Please read the post, dark and stormy. My comment is clearly focused on market reaction to news from FOMC meeting.

 

[aronth5]

FTFY

Your FTFY doesn't apply. In the states where there isn't a single Tesla service center do you believe that affects demand or not? Yes or No?
Easy question to answer.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Giesige thinks the 4680 lines have been down retooling for gen2 Cybercell. Next update on production will be important.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770436891914940873

His follow up to this was interesting...

 

[Webeevdrivers]

We picked up both our teslas 460 kilometres away. Because of great ranger service and almost no issues with either the lack of a service centre has never been an issue.

And having said that, yesterday our local tesla group had a post about tesla breaking ground on a new service, showroom and delivery centre 35 kilometres from our home. Nice.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Last week's Autoline AfterHours had a guest on who does research in EV buyers. A couple of points that were notable to me:

1) For ICE owners who have no experience with EVs, the biggest selling point is never having to go to a gas station again. This is something that they're familiar with on a daily basis, it's a bad experience, and they resonate with the most. Stuff like EV's 0-60, quiet ride, those are not as big of a factor until they experience it in person. The discussion didn't go into services as much, but if I have to guess I would say it's a secondary factor as well, people say they think about it, but they don't really think about it every day/week, not the same as getting gas, and a lot of people drive with the check engine light on and just keep procrastinating on services anyway, I suspect those people don't really care that much.

2) Multi-family dwellers buy EVs at a higher % than single family dwellers. This was a shocker to everyone in the panel. Overall there are still many more single family EV owners, since single family dwellings outnumber multi-family dwellings by 2:1 in the US. The guest hypothesized that the reason for higher % EV ownership in multi-family dwellers is that those buildings tend to be in urban areas, with denser EV charging infrastructure. Anecdotally here in the SF Bay Area, a rough eyeballing shows DCFC spots are as ubiquitous as gas stations, and if you include level 2 chargers it's literally everywhere. I live in a newish condo and we have lvl 2 EV charging built into 1/2 of the spots in the garage, and ~10-15% of the cars here are Teslas, plus a few other EVs/PHEVs. Most of the buildings around are apartments/condos, even in older ones without such good charger support (that I can see), it's not hard to spot a Tesla or 2 in their garages, as well as a few Teslas parked on the curb every night, wouldn't shock me if Tesla ownership is >5% in these buildings.

 

[2daMoon]

Your FTFY doesn't apply. In the states where there isn't a single Tesla service center do you believe that affects demand or not? Yes or No?
Easy question to answer.

Your need to keep parroting this, over and over, as if it is a permanent impediment raises questions about your motive in doing so. It is beginning to smell like FUD to me.

Regardless, the entrenched idea that having a service center nearby is critical to a purchase decision comes from experiences with ICE.

Once this mental baggage is no longer a factor, will it continue to affect demand, or not?

I've owned over fifty motorcycles over the years and never balked at purchasing one because of the nearness of a dealer. If that is what I wanted, I bought it. Same with cars, as I have lived in rural areas and have often preferred brands that aren't supported outside of metro areas.

It seems quite likely that as BEV adoption grows the general knowledge of how the nearness of a service center is no longer a critical factor will grow as well.

People will all vote with their wallets when they realize how their overall costs will be reduced. Either way, knowledge is the thing that will make the difference, more than the nearness of a service center. (which will continue to improve over time anyway)

Patience is all that is required to see this happen. If production exceeds demand at some point Tesla can raise awareness through the channels they are already developing to spread the word.

 

[Captkerosene]

If the new Roadster is truly going to take flight, even briefly, I wouldn't expect anyone will be taking delivery on one for several years at the earliest.

No way it'll fly. Too dangerous. Even if it could jump around a little to what purpose? The blast of air necessary for levitation will cause a cloud of debris to engulf the area ... ever see a helicopter takeoff? This would be much worse. The only other possibilities are a boat (possibly submersible) or a hovercraft. How cool would it be to race across the lake in your own hovercraft?

 

[Stormy24]

Bad news folks. It looks like the Biden administration just lowered the emissions requirements on ICE.

irrelevant. Ice is over.

 

[2daMoon]

Bad news folks. It looks like the Biden administration just lowered the emissions requirements on ICE.

Did they also lower the emissions requirements on BEV?
(which may only affect the volume level for the Fart noise option)

/S

 

[GatorMeat]

I'm fairly positive any 'Tesla Ranger' worth his salt could fix this in your garage/driveway. I suspect all that's needed is a torque wrench. We just had a Ranger visit us last week. His mobile service truck? A brand new, fully kitted-out Model S!

A ranger came to my house after 2018 Model 3 delivery to fix badly aligned door, hood, and a glovebox that wasn't plugged in and wouldn't open. Ever since, every problem has required a 4-hour+ round trip to service.