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Today is an excellent example of how the MM tractor beam can work. Nicely called mejojo, Curt, Fred, and others.
Ah bummer, I was assuming the daily strategy you have been trading would have made today a good day for you.
Perfectlogic
Member
Like I said I am looking at the production from recent quarters and from that you can infer a demand of around that same runrate being around 50k/year or a bit above. CA sales has benefited from a lot of Tesla buzz and the population being relatively tech savvy combined also being a fairly green state and having an additional $5k incentive ontop of the $7.5k. I'm not sure how much weight the different factors bear but it really has been an almost perfect market for Tesla, I don't think we will get close to those sales in many areas even with advertisement.
Hey Curt,
What levels of pullback opportunities do you think we will see prior to Q2?
Thanks,
NTG
Thank you, but let's give even more credit to all of the "rally trolls" who assembled here today. That's a term that originated on baseball message boards, but it applies well here.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/397...s-tesla-seeking-alternative-battery-suppliers
Check what Tesla's closest partner said. No wonder why Panasonic doesn't want to commit the Gigafactory investment upfront and no other partners jumping on the board.
Edits: It's interesting to see some folks give "dislike". I guess some investors just don't like the facts and willing to live in the dream.
Jonathan Hewitt
esk8mw
Irishjugg
Check what Tesla's closest partner said. No wonder why Panasonic doesn't want to commit the Gigafactory investment upfront and no other partners jumping on the board.
Edits: It's interesting to see some folks give "dislike". I guess some investors just don't like the facts and willing to live in the dream.
Jonathan Hewitt
esk8mw
Irishjugg
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Just bad timing. I think most people knew something was coming, but I didn't expect it to be so soon.
Well, if the stars align, SP will crash 5 points for the first 5 minutes once the market opens Monday then shoot back up. Even if it doesn't, I'm still going all in. I may be new at this, but even I know what was keeping Tesla down and that it's been largely relieved.
I may post a fuller analysis on the macro-thread where this belongs, but first a taste.
As I’ve posted earlier, one item of Trump’s campaign which was interesting is his criticism of the recent war in Iraq. Though clearly aimed at Jeb Bush in the primaries, his reasoning could have been written by any of the outstanding realist critiques. Now it looks like the big-bad-funders of the Tea Party are giving Trump more academic firepower.
I can’t validate this source, totally new to me. The author has a progressive background, but the writing is pretty much just “the facts, mam” reporting. It does offer a good overview of the varying positions in our Middle East policy.
Neocon-Bashers Headline Koch Event as Political Realignment on Foreign Policy Continues
As I’ve posted earlier, one item of Trump’s campaign which was interesting is his criticism of the recent war in Iraq. Though clearly aimed at Jeb Bush in the primaries, his reasoning could have been written by any of the outstanding realist critiques. Now it looks like the big-bad-funders of the Tea Party are giving Trump more academic firepower.
I can’t validate this source, totally new to me. The author has a progressive background, but the writing is pretty much just “the facts, mam” reporting. It does offer a good overview of the varying positions in our Middle East policy.
Neocon-Bashers Headline Koch Event as Political Realignment on Foreign Policy Continues
The reason many of us are so meh about these demand arguments is that we've heard them nonstop for the past three years and yet with very similar conditions the production and demand keep rising. Obviously there's a limit, but there's no serious evidence that we're there yet because all the evidence offered by the bears is the same evidence that has been offered in the past, and it hasn't held water. Elon Musk has clearly stated his method for keeping production and demand reasonably in sync: demand levers. He pulls one or more as they're needed. So far, the demand levers have not included advertising, but that's an option if it is needed to keep the production lines running at desired capacity. Take a look, for example, at Model X. One enormous lever is placing the X in stores. Here in Hawaii we're seeing our first Demo X arrive in the store next week. It'll be available for demo drives and for inspection and will generate lots of orders. When word gets into the wild that Model X production line is running smoothly with few complaints by new owners, that news will be both a SP catalyst and a Model X demand catalyst. The fact that wait times remain about 6-8 weeks out as production continues to grow (and Model X wait times are gravitating toward that number) is proof that Tesla is managing demand very well. People get discouraged if wait times are too great, and Tesla gets nervous if wait times are too short. Thus, demand levers are pulled as necessary. Are we almost out of levers? Nope, Model S redesign will stimulate lots of upgrades for 2012 and 2013 Model S owners (especially when you consider the advantages of autopilot, which itself turned out to be a mega-demand-lever). Expansion of the supercharger network and stores are demand levers. Expansion into Korea and other countries are demand levers. The bottom line is that demand is growing appropriately for production growth because demand is being managed skillfully by Tesla.
The reason why I complain of pages upon pages of recycled arguments is that it distracts short-term traders from short-term discussions, such as the possibility of TSLA rising to 220 at the end of today. Some of our members made money by trading on that speculation, some could have if they had not been distracted by other lengthy posts.
Linking to a SeekingAlpha article by a permabear isn't going to hold much water here. Especially when this info came out today:
electrek.co/2016/05/20/panasonic-tesla-gigafactory-investment-model-3/
Even though you will likely be banned soon, and are clearly just a troll that shouldn't be fed, I'll bite.
No they didn't, they said model X didn't grow at the pace they expected. If that is surprising to you then you haven't been paying attention. Tesla has had major issues ramping up model X. Panasonic didn't say anything about demand, and poor production is very obviously the reason for the current lack of growth there. If demand is a problem for X we won't be able to know that for a while yet due to those production problems.
mejojo
Active Member
Perfectlogic
Member
The evidence I present is not the same the bears were saying 2 or 3 years ago. Firstly we didn't have the same amount of data back then so it was much harder to draw any conclusion with a high certainty. Secondly over the past year Tesla has been expanding production slower than it has ever done and the kicker is that we know that there isn't a backlog of demand from this slow production ramp.
You will always be able to name a thousand and one catalysts for increased demand but the fact of the matter is that Tesla is on the cusp of a large production capacity increase that it will need to fill in order to meet yearly guidance and its backlog is lower than it has ever been.
If people want to daytrade I would suggest they head over to the technicals thread.
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Demand issue would the last thing TSLA permabull want to confess. With more evidence come out and more investors realize this. They just want to evade this topic at all.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
I mostly just want to evade the waste of my precious time. Speaking of which, you might want to evaluate the use of your time here.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Hey to all the bears.
So out of curiosity, since I wasn't expecting you guys to appear until $250.
Why are you defending the $220 line? It is technically insignificant. And you are using up your argument that should be used for $250. What argument are you going to use when we get there?
So out of curiosity, since I wasn't expecting you guys to appear until $250.
Why are you defending the $220 line? It is technically insignificant. And you are using up your argument that should be used for $250. What argument are you going to use when we get there?
It seems like a plausible idea, don't think it's really that far fetched. I guess it could still happen if there is a debt element to this raise. But that doesn't necessarily have to happen anytime soon.
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