Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[generalenthu]

A rise in share price for a company like TSLA will in my observation almost always trail good financial results. Do NOT expect product announcements, analyst upgrades, or other positive news to bump TSLA out of its current range/plateau. Likewise, negative news may push the stock price down, but only temporarily.

There's a psychological reason for this: uncertainty and fear of loss. In typical humans, fear of loss is felt 2x as much as happiness from gain. When bad news arrives, there is going to be some panic selling.

Good financial results help erase uncertainty, which is why share price rises on good financials. However, by the time people learn of the good financials, it's too late to get in. Algobots can trade much faster than retail investors can.




Agreed.

Despite my best efforts over the years, there seems to be a false perception that TSLA is an easy "get rich quick" stock, and nothing could be further from the truth. Companies like Tesla may eventually make it big, but it's a slow process with many bumps along the way.

For most people, short-term trading is a losing bet. The big players have lighting-fast Algobots and more computing power at their disposal than average Joe/Jane will ever have. Most options expire worthless. It's just best to stay away from short-term trades and options.

Yes, better to write options in moderation, personally prefer selling short term puts and owning long term calls, for a no time decay long position. Also, buy synthetics instead of common stock for a lower cost basis.

 

[Hogfighter]

Hello. New to the forum here. Actually - new to investing in Tesla. Just spent the past couple of weeks researching and watching many of elon's videos on YouTube and reviewing prior earnings calls.

Current investment plan is to own shares and sell covered calls against them. Incredible premium even in the weeklies.

Welcome Navin.

Writing covered calls against your stock is essentially a bet against volatility. If the stock goes up huge, sure you've made a little, but now are faced with repurchasing your shares at a higher price. Stock falls too much, then you're still down overall even with the call premium. It can be done, but it's not as easy as it sounds. Best of luck

 

[MikeC]

Germany requiring all zero-emission cars starting in 2030.

electrek.co/2016/06/14/all-new-cars-mandated-electric-germany-2030/

 

[geneclean55]

Nine days from production start to delivery over in the model X delivery thread for CA customers. Pretty good!

 

[MitchJi]

Hello. New to the forum here. Actually - new to investing in Tesla. Just spent the past couple of weeks researching and watching many of elon's videos on YouTube and reviewing prior earnings calls.

Current investment plan is to own shares and sell covered calls against them. Incredible premium even in the weeklies.

Welcome. Be sure to watch the most recent Conference Call (earnings call q1 2016) and the 2016 Shareholders Meeting.

If the stock goes up huge, sure you've made a little, but now are faced with repurchasing your shares at a higher price.

It's just a matter of time before it goes up huge, 100% or more.

Germany requiring all zero-emission cars starting in 2030.

electrek.co/2016/06/14/all-new-cars-mandated-electric-germany-2030/

What's a zero-emission car in Germany? Fuel Cell car with a 30 mile range battery?

I'm not sure there is a mandate:
German Official Says All New Cars Sold Should Be Emissions Free by 2030 - HybridCars.com

A government official says that all new cars sold in Germany need to be emissions free by 2030 to help meet pollution reduction goals.

Deputy economy minister Rainer Baake says that Germany’s pledge to cut carbon dioxide output by 80 percent to 95 percent by 2050 won’t be met unless pollution emanating from vehicles is radically reduced. Since cars on German roads typically have a 20-year lifespan, registrations of new diesel and gasoline cars needs to be cut over the next 15 years, Baake said while speaking at a Tagesspiegel newspaper climate forum in Berlin.

 

[MikeC]

What's a zero-emission car in Germany? Fuel Cell car with a 30 mile range battery?

That would be one, but Tesla also sells cars in Germany.

 

[JamesTSLA]

Despite my best efforts over the years, there seems to be a false perception that TSLA is an easy "get rich quick" stock, and nothing could be further from the truth. Companies like Tesla may eventually make it big, but it's a slow process with many bumps along the way.

Interesting. Isn't Tesla a fast growing company which deserves fast SP appreication? Looks like not many folks here have ATH or $300 target in 2016 anymore?

 

[JamesTSLA]

Bought am dip at 219.50.

bought 100s @ 218.9. But price action looks urgly in late trading hours, can't hold 215. I guess it might head for 205 very soon.

 

[JamesTSLA]

Still unclear on why we keep going down. So frustrating.

TSLA was trading between 140 and 280 range in past 12 months, the middle point is 210. I think market makers don't like to stay in this nowhere price point for too long. If there is no sufficient catalysts to push SP up, then let it down.

 

[JamesTSLA]

Christ I'm getting destroyed lately. I usually shrug at market swings, but my pain threshold is waning. /sigh I could really use a little good news.

come on buddy. SP just backed to where we are a few weeks ago.

 

[JamesTSLA]

Thanks for everyone's estimates on production numbers.

I think it bares repeating though that Wall Street really only cares about DELIVERIES. Guidance for deliveries for Q2 is 17K. My prediction is a beat.

Unless there is severe demand issue, Q2 should be met at minimum. 17K was the Q4 delivery number, Tesla can't have two quarters without delivery growth. There is very negative domino effect if Tesla miss Q2 again. Market will lose confidence on M3 ramp up and market will lower full year guidance.

 

[chipmunk]

Cramer had a real nice piece about Tesla tonight. Says Jay Leno got him thinking about Tesla and all the unwarranted bashing. Jay thinks Tesla is amazing and compares Elon to Edison and Ford. He says engineers will save the world and that is why we are in this stock. Let the haters continue to hate. We know the score!

I loved that too. Here's a link.

 

[Papafox]

So you were caught by by fake Ron Baron rally? It was so tempted not to miss that rally though.

Kinda curious, JamesTSLA, by "fake Ron Baron rally" do you mean that Ron Baron is a fake or that TESLA never rose to 235?

 

[hobbes]

Wow: All new cars mandated to be electric in Germany by 2030
Nothing official for now, but if this is true... Was surprised about the same news from Norway, but from Germany - just wow.

 

[Gerardf]

Maybe this belongs in another (general forum) thread, but since we suddenly see a lot of post from JamesTSLA in this specific thread I also put it here.

Curious about JamesTSLA earlier posts I wanted to have some context & background, so I try to look up his profile.

To my big surprise:

Tesla Motors Club - Error
This member limits who may view their full profile.

I can not think of any reason why I should not be able to see a members profile and posting history. I can also not think of any reason why this member could have blocked me from seeing his profile.
It is my opinion that, specially for the investor threads, we should be able to judge the integrity and background of the posters. It is hard to know if what is stated in the profiles is true (if complete) but the post history is at the very least some way of judging this.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Wow: All new cars mandated to be electric in Germany by 2030
Nothing official for now, but if this is true... Was surprised about the same news from Norway, but from Germany - just wow.

yes, this is/would be huge.

Now while we may see a major opportunity for tesla to cement their lead in EV technology, bears will say Tesla is now over & done as the Germans will move hard into the EV business.

To be fair, the German government would not do this unless they have been through a series of negotiations with BMW, VW and Mercedes and all agreed to the plan behind closed doors. They are not going to break the back of the German economy, which is good as that would be breaking the back of the EU economy and I am not a fan of that.

So competition will be harder, but the cake will be a lot bigger too. Tesla is now recognized as the leader in premium EVs and I have no doubt they will keep that edge through R&D and battery manufacturing, while most of the competition will be busy reorganizing themselves for the next 15 years.

 

[Johan]

Germans are very smart and logical people. Their very strong economy and great tradition of engineering and industry are the obvious proofs of this. It makes sense for Germany to lead the way in Europe when it comes to the transition to 100% electric personal transport. Just as they have been trying to lead the way with solar and other renewables for quite a while now. The only question is the time frame.

 

[Gerardf]

A bit up in pre-market, and both Asia and Europe green.
Asian Stock Markets - CNNMoney

Will be harder and more costly for the shorts to attack today.

 

[madodel]

Now that the lying shills have driven the price down with their latest completely fake attack, is today a good day to pick up more shares? Premarket is showing TSLA up 1.36%. Do we expect the shills to continue to drive the price down today?

 

[vgrinshpun]

There is another Space X geo-stationary orbit launch today, 10:29 ET. First stage will attempt droneship landing.
Webcast.
Mission Press Kit.