People were surprised and was concerned how Tesla was going to pull off growth for 2024 given such bad q1 numbers. This report tells people Elon wasn't pulling numbers out of his rear end. If numbers came in soft then people will think his q2024 guide was more BS.
Errr. on the car side it's
far from a sure thing we'll see any growth at all on volume-- Through 1H 2024 we're at 829,766 deliveries.
2023 1H was 889,015 deliveries.
A gap of almost 70,000 cars.
On the production side 1H 2023 was 920,508, versus 1H 2024 at 844,202.
So they've reduced production by ~55,000 vehicles but they're still ~70,000 behind on sales.
Certainly this quarter means getting out of that hole compared to '23 numbers remains
possible because the Q2 gap was smaller than the Q1 gap-- but both were gaps and there's a lot of ground to make up.
Specifically 2H 2023 was 919,566 deliveries... meaning Tesla needs 2H 2024 to deliver 978,815 cars in 2H just to be
flat with 2023.
The best quarter Tesla
ever had was 484,507 in Q4 2023. If BOTH Q3 and Q4 2024 were that high they'd still fall almost 10,000 cars short of 2023s total deliveries.
That's a pretty tough hill.
On the production side they're even further behind... they'd need to produce just over 1 million cars in 2H 2024 just to be flat YoY for the year. Here they'd certainly be ABLE to do that- but financially and as a business they appear to have finally come around to the idea of not continuing to produce cars they don't have buyers for so that seems unlikely to not also be down YoY for the full year.
(see also how terrible S/X appear to have done in Q2 BTW)
The growth this year is over at energy- which looked fantastic from this report.
. Plenty of long shares and selling CCs on the way up.
