Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

I have always said Energy was the sleeping giant waiting in the background for its turn to take the limelight. This is coming to fruition nicely! Not bad for jus a car company

Tesla Energy is certainly about to start producing large revenues and its on its way to being as large as the Tesla auto segment, even larger maybe, BUT the real sleeping giants comparatively are Robotaxis and Optimus. Both of those will eventually be far, far larger revenue wise than Energy and Auto combined.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

In 2024, Tesla Energy's revenue will double what it was in 2023

This prediction from last December is aging well. I think Tesla energy is massively undervalued by wall st

 

[Featsbeyond50]

$666 in pre-split. How many more times will I see this cursed number?

Forever if you keep working at it so hard.

 

[Leftlane22]

Premarket futures down so that’s why TSLA is down. I think TSLA will go down today as yesterday was a pump and today will likely be a bump. Please remember TSLA has very little to do with Tesla.

Good call.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Cool it, folks. Lora @ CNBC says this is bad news. Sell! /s

 

[GhostSkater]

On one hand, it's nice to see it going up, on another, in around a month or so I will be able to start buying again after almost a year hiatus and even having to sell a bit

So maybe don't go too high too fast?

 

[Opus BC fan]

I look forward to the July 23rd meeting with energy in the mix.

 

[Musskiah]

As many said last Q, the inventory accumulated would be unloaded this Q. There was all this talk about soft demand. What say ye now that the tables have turned? Is demand now suddenly outpacing supply? Or perhaps many vehicles were just staged in Shanghai South Port, for example.

 

[Musskiah]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808145686107467898

Here comes the $NVDA to $TSLA rotation as technical traders see the inverse H&S breakout & the 50DMA (thin BLUE line) golden cross with the 100 DMA (thin GREEN line)

 

[aubreymcfato]

Cool it, folks. Lora @ CNBC says this is bad news. Sell! /s

View attachment 1061544

Technically she's correct, but I came to the conclusion that we should interpret 2023 as an extraordinary year.
If we manage to reduce the gap with it, I would be very happy. I don't think we will surpass it but maybe Q3 and Q4 will surprise us. Anyway, Q2 is a good quarter especially after the doom and gloom of the last 6 months.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

On one hand, it's nice to see it going up, on another, in around a month or so I will be able to start buying again after almost a year hiatus and even having to sell a bit

So maybe don't go too high too fast?

While we all want you to accumulate more shares, you have been given ample opportunities/time while wall st suppressed $TSLA

 

[FreqFlyer]

Also interesting that the lease take rates have declined even further. It was 5% a year ago. With the IRA allowing the tax credit on leases without regards to the battery manufacturing requirements (i.e. RWD Model 3) you would think this would be increasing. I wonder if the leases are actually owned by a 3rd party bank. Either way good for Tesla financials.


View attachment 1061528

Unlike other car makes, you cannot buy the vehicle after the lease, so whatever appreciation goes to Tesla, not the lease customer. It's a bad financial move from a customer viewpoint, not surprised lease rates are low.

 

[AnbaricBike]

I am happy. That is all.

 

[hobbes]

For anyone suggesting @Troy has a bias - if you average the percentages how far he has been off the actual deliveries since Q3 2021, you get an overestimation of 0.18%.

Source

 

[hobbes]

As many said last Q, the inventory accumulated would be unloaded this Q. There was all this talk about soft demand. What say ye now that the tables have turned? Is demand now suddenly outpacing supply? Or perhaps many vehicles were just staged in Shanghai South Port, for example.

Tesla has had 0% financing in China for a while, in Germany inventory Ys are 6000 EUR off.. Not saying that this is the only reason deliveries are up, but low prices sure help.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Oh, I'm calling a short squeeze. It's gone!!!
(Funny, so are the idiots trying to tell us otherwise for the past month.)

 

[Musskiah]

Approx $1.5B in inventory vehicles were sold this Q. Along with Energy Deferred Rev, profitability may suprise even more than (Auto & Energy) deliveries did today. July 23 Who is wearing #BurntHair for the 4th of July? (I wonder if this was the plan all along?) 4DMaster Musk

 

[Knightshade]

As many said last Q, the inventory accumulated would be unloaded this Q. There was all this talk about soft demand. What say ye now that the tables have turned? Is demand now suddenly outpacing supply?

Production was only 410,831--- versus 479,700 in Q2 of 2023.

Demand did not rise to meet supply, supply was cut to meet demand. (and loan rates were bought down and other promos as well to make that happen- all of which have a cost).

That's a smart business move, but does not, at all, change the fact Tesla is down YoY on deliveries 2 quarters in a row now after years of 50% CAGR... so yes, demand is soft compared to the last decade- and Tesla cut production to account for it.

The big story at ER is likely to be energy profits though- most interesting to me will be if they reiterate as they have as recently as Q1 that such #s are lumpy, or if they say they expect to keep this near peak-Lathrop output on an ongoing basis now.

 

[alexxs88]

As many said last Q, the inventory accumulated would be unloaded this Q. There was all this talk about soft demand. What say ye now that the tables have turned? Is demand now suddenly outpacing supply? Or perhaps many vehicles were just staged in Shanghai South Port, for example.

At what cost though? I haven't followed all the price changes for the vehicles, but there are multiple countries with 0-1% financing rates. It's just not as bad as some people feared, but everything still rests on FSD and Optimus to deliver the growth to justify the current valuation. I'm leaving energy out because, same as with cars, margins will compress even further.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Agreed on all counts, I should've been clearer in my initial message.

What I meant is that there is a point at which more data isn't going to make your autonomous driving system better than others. From what I'm seeing Waymo already has enough data to achieve it in a way that won't affect commercial viability for RT. Sure, Tesla's might end up being autonomous everywhere, but as many other posters said before me, RT business is one where the majority of revenue is done in a relatively limited area. You cover the big cities and their outskirts and you're done. You might argue that, beyond having a subscription business (similar to FSD now), it won't be commercially viable to have autonomous vehicles go too far from their base.

AV's remove the driver problem:
- The fleet is fungible. No driver to move home. No person needed to move the AV.
- Fleet size determined by peak demand, lots of spare vehicles available off-peak. It's like rental, not like human-driven taxis.

There's potential costs of moving around empty, which would be higher at peak. But it's just miles and about net movement.
Off-peak, the AV has time to get back from Podunk to Big City, so it might be able to pick up some fares as it wends it way back.

But the big competition for taxis is private vehicles.
Every limitation gives reason for people to have a private vehicle. Every private vehicle is a large loss of custom.
Every trip needs a vehicle. The overall fleet size has to be larger if you're using AV-4s.. Is that going to work out cheaper than having a fleet of AV-5s that can do everything?