Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sunwarriors]

'Interesting pivot' indeed.

We know Ferrari makes tons of profit per vehicle, but I have to believe this is a smarter long-term play than trying to beat Tesla at the supercar owners market, especially if Rimac can be first within certain markets (before Tesla). I still wouldn't invest in them now, but maybe it's a smarter play than status quo EV development...?

Rimac is shifting from electric supercars to robotaxis

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Not surprising they are not partnering with Tesla on FSD. Worth watching developments on this and very relevant to TSLA investors of course. I'd be the first to admit I'm totally wrong if Tesla gets Ford or GM to license FSD.

 

[Musskiah]

Is it? FWIW I agree with you- but when folks previously mentioned here Xpeng offers "works anywhere in the country" L2 city streets software- the country being China rather than the US, in reply to others claiming nobody has anything remotely close to FSD anywhere, the response was largely to dismiss Xpeng as meaningless.

Are you saying because Xpeng arguably does not possess comprably capable tech (which I would agree they almost certainly do not) this discredits Xiaopeng's opinion?

 

[WMTribe90]

This feels like institutional buying. Perhaps someone got a robo taxi preview or wind of an FSD licensing deal?

 

[MountainRatMat]

Finally a fun and entertaining day on here. So much news swirling about and the quarter is about to end. Consider me entertained, keep it coming.

 

[GatorMeat]

Driving in North Carolina near Asheville and having quite a few interventions.
Still going too wide on some windy rides around corners . Other times it's great.
I've been having lots of issues with speed.
choices .Sometimes it goes under the max speed setting on many roads for no apparent reason
just staying at 49 in 45 mph zone or going 37mph in 45 again for no reason
Couple of times when car in front of me was signaling right my car was heading for the car to some degree and not anticipating and moving into left lane when it was entirely clear . Other situations too
Though I will say on the very curvy ride up to my mountain property (did you hear that Krugerand ?) it was doing largely better than it ever has . So there is a long way to go from my perspective in my driving in North Carolina and Brooklyn, NY. So FSD still has a lot to learn.
I've had FSD from 2018.

FSD 12.3 started hugging the white and yellow lines, driving into the berm at times with all the road debris and hitting the annoying rumble strips. It ran me into a freshly stripped berm on Sunday right over a tire weight and cost me a $400 tire and several hours waiting on a tow and a night without my car. Tesla needs to fix the lane wandering asap.

 

[Mengy]

Finally a fun and entertaining day on here. So much news swirling about and the quarter is about to end. Consider me entertained, keep it coming.

I'm not sure how this quarter is going to end up. I feel like the stock will tank on less than impressive delivery numbers, but I also wouldn't be surprised if P&D came in at a surprisingly high number either. I honestly don't have a clue how Q2 will go down. It feels odd, lol!

 

[Usain]

This feels like institutional buying. Perhaps someone got a robo taxi preview or wind of an FSD licensing deal?

From what I see, the pure EV plays are all up today. Most more than TSLA.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I'm not sure how this quarter is going to end up. I feel like the stock will tank on less than impressive delivery numbers, but I also wouldn't be surprised if P&D came in at a surprisingly high number either. I honestly don't have a clue how Q2 will go down. It feels odd, lol!

So you're saying it could go up, it could go down, or remain flat.

 

[Knightshade]

Are you saying because Xpeng arguably does not possess comprably capable tech (which I would agree they almost certainly do not) this discredits Xiaopeng's opinion?

Quite the opposite- because they do have comparably capable tech-- factually so as it's currently, actively, available and in use everywhere in China just as FSD is everywhere in the US- that opinion has enough value to be worth mentioning here.

Hopefully Tesla eventually gets wide approval themselves in China and we can have a more 1:1 comparison in the same exact situations- but currently they're both L2, including both highways and city streets, on all public roads in their respective countries.

Most posters here, being the US, seemed unaware of that and were assuming, inaccurately, the only "competition" to consumer-owned FSD was trash like Blues Clues and whatever GM decided to offer this week...(or I suppose the L3 Mercedes system with the hilariously narrow ODD)


I'm also pointing out it's tough to claim one WITHOUT the other--- if they had no remotely comparable tech then their opinion on the tech would be of much less relevance and value-- and I found it funny that the same company dismissed as irrelevant in previous discussion is now suddenly worth mentioning - but apparently only because they said something nice about Tesla.

I don’t believe Tesla has ever had a down fundraising round as private or public company.

Do you mean share price was always higher at each future cap raise? I don't think that's accurate...haven't done a deep dive but just one counter-example off hand-

The August 2015 raise was at (pre all the splits) $242 a share-- in May 2016 they raised at $214 a share (again all pre-split)

 

[sunwarriors]

Please.
Being this a Tesla forum, Rivian is always touche with silky gloves: I don't wander in Rivian forums, but I wouldn't expect the same courtesy. Being from Europe, I know Rivian cars just from what I read here, and I know they are nice, beautiful cars with great interiors and software.
What I also know is that they always need money, they didn't give Amazon the millions vans they asked, and know also VW is involved.
I think I wrote again in this thread that I hope they succeed, but proof is always in the pudding: in 2023, they produced 57232 vehicles and delivered 50122. Tesla instead produced 495000 vehicles and delivered over 484000 vehicles. That is almost 10x.
As my nonna would say, Rivian need to "eat a lot of bread" to be able to seat at the adult's table with Tesla.

And the last paragraph is even more confusing: are you really mixing ICE profits with EV profits. Where are the other "pure EV companies" profits? Rivian is the second best game in town in US, and we are talking about a "lifeline" from VW.
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At least the company is worth 53x less on 10x less deliveries. ICE/EVs are still modes of transportation. There is still, IMO, a demand problem for EVs which hurts pure EV makers more than hybrid/ICE makers. It's not like one can't get to X with ICE vs. an EV right?

 

[WMTribe90]

From what I see, the pure EV plays are all up today. Most more than TSLA.

Interesting, the logic being if Rivian found an ICE partner and cash infusion then all the other pure EV plays could potentially do the same with an ICE partner? Odd that Tesla would benefit from that line of thinking given its market cap and Elon’s near certain rejection of a such partnership along the lines of the VW and Rivian arrangement. Or is it more the tacit admission from VW that it can't compete in the EV landscape (particularly Tesla and BYD) on its own. Wall Street waking up to plight of legacy auto?

Doesn’t really matter I guess, but glad to see some traction (knock on wood).

 

[wtlloyd]

They still have the problem that a lot of items that require program access are outsourced and every outsource supplier has a different program interface. I don't see how Rivian can help this--although I'm sure it looks good on a presentation slide.

Well, it would seem thereby that the software will drive the hardware choice in a clean slate approach. That will take time, but Tesla have shown it's the only way to be the master of your own destiny.

 

[Usain]

Quite the opposite- because they do have comparably capable tech-- factually so as it's currently, actively, available and in use everywhere in China just as FSD is everywhere in the US- that opinion has enough value to be worth mentioning here.

Hopefully Tesla eventually gets wide approval themselves in China and we can have a more 1:1 comparison in the same exact situations- but currently they're both L2, including both highways and city streets, on all public roads in their respective countries.

Most posters here, being the US, seemed unaware of that and were assuming, inaccurately, the only "competition" to consumer-owned FSD was trash like Blues Clues and whatever GM decided to offer this week...(or I suppose the L3 Mercedes system with the hilariously narrow ODD)

As far as we can tell, XPeng does not have comparably capable tech. Indications are that it is not end-to-end. XPeng's XNGP system may be comparable to FSD V10 or V11.

This matters a lot. Building an end-to-end system that competes with Tesla will require resources XPeng does not appear to have.

I agree that a 1:1 comparison would be great. It would also be great to just get some more information on XNGP. But it's info that's hard to get right now.

Also note that XPeng actually has two systems. One uses lidar and HD maps. The other, "go anywhere" version, is brand new and appears to be similar to FSD V10/V11.

 

[Doggydogworld]

in 2023, they produced 57232 vehicles and delivered 50122. Tesla instead produced 495000 vehicles and delivered over 484000 vehicles. That is almost 10x.

Tesla produced and delivered 1.8m+ vehicles in 2023. More than 30x Rivian.

Legacy can make EVs, but can only sell them in volume when forced to by quotas. Startups Rivian and Lucid have the same problem. None have a fraction of Musk's marketing prowess. Unfortunately auto is a volume business. Without volume you lose billions.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1806010412690972891

BYD hot seats

 

[jerry33]

Well, it would seem thereby that the software will drive the hardware choice in a clean slate approach. That will take time, but Tesla have shown it's the only way to be the master of your own destiny.

Agreed. However, that would mean an entire new supply chain for VW. I don't believe they're up to doing that.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Is it? FWIW I agree with you- but when folks previously mentioned here Xpeng offers "works anywhere in the country" L2 city streets software- the country being China rather than the US, in reply to others claiming nobody has anything remotely close to FSD anywhere, the response was largely to dismiss Xpeng as meaningless.




TBF, Tesla was founded in 2003, and was still doing cap raises by selling stock as late as December 2020. Rivian was founded 2009, so they've got until end of 2026 to stop raising cap via stock sales to be even with Tesla in that regard.

Also the amazon thing was 100k vans, not 1M-- and by 2030, not this year. And they're still working toward that goal- only change was the van sales are no longer exclusive (ie they previously were contractually bound to ONLY sell em to Amazon, that's no longer true)
See here:

Rivian to end exclusivity with Amazon, allow other companies to buy its electric vans

Electric vehicle maker Rivian says it will allow other companies to purchase its delivery vans, ending its exclusive agreement with Amazon.

apnews.com

Sure. But that's Rivian just over 2 years from first production of a mass produced vehicle (Sept 2021 was when that began)... Versus Tesla 11 years after first production of a mass produced vehicle (June 2012 for Model S). FWIW to reach 50k deliveries Tesla didn't get there until 2015... Rivian got there a year faster than Tesla did from start of production.... (In 2014, 2.5 years after production start, so slightly MORE time than Rivian had end of 2023, Tesla only delivered 31,655 vehicles vs. Rivians 50122).


FWIW there's lots of OTHER ways Rivian is fundamentally poor compared to Tesla (even early production Tesla)-- but not those ways.

I don't dispute your data, but how much money did Rivian get in their first years? How much did they spend? How much compared to Tesla? You cant say they were faster and better without mentioning they came later and enjoyed a lot of Tesla-related EV-boom capital... Also,I grossly made a mistake with my 2023 Tesla number, and you didnt correct me

Tesla produced and delivered 1.8m+ vehicles in 2023. More than 30x Rivian.

Legacy can make EVs, but can only sell them in volume when forced to by quotas. Startups Rivian and Lucid have the same problem. None have a fraction of Musk's marketing prowess. Unfortunately auto is a volume business. Without volume you lose billions.

Sorry man, of course. I must have picked the wrong document in the hurry. You helped me make my point.

 

[Knightshade]

I don't dispute your data, but how much money did Rivian get in their first years? How much did they spend? How much compared to Tesla? You cant say they were faster and better without mentioning they came later and enjoyed a lot of Tesla-related EV-boom capital...

I mean- I think I was pretty clear Tesla did a lot better on many metrics in their early years--- and were a fundamentally much heathier company overall then and now- I was just pointing out they didn't on the specific metrics that were being cited (time to first 50k deliveries, and for how many years they kept doing cap raises).

There's certainly numerous reasons that's so- including growing acceptance of EVs in general among others (same reason for the point I make at the end of the next bit)

Also,I grossly made a mistake with my 2023 Tesla number, and you didnt correct me

That's true- though mainly because it was only the Rivian # that was relevant... since we have "#s delivered 2 years into mass production" for both companies... but we have only Teslas # for "#s delivered 11 years into mass production"

That said- unless the EV ramp goes insanely slower than most expect, there's really only 2 paths for Rivian when they do get to 11 years after start of mass production-- either they'd be higher than Teslas 11-year number... or they'd be out of business.

As far as we can tell, XPeng does not have comparably capable tech.

Except for the fact it offers the same functionality, at the same SAE level, in the same type of very broad ODD. So it's exactly comparable in capabilities today.

You seem to keep No True Scotsmaning this fact by getting into the weeds of HOW they're providing those capabilities.

 

[aubreymcfato]

At least the company is worth 53x less on 10x less deliveries. ICE/EVs are still modes of transportation. There is still, IMO, a demand problem for EVs which hurts pure EV makers more than hybrid/ICE makers. It's not like one can't get to X with ICE vs. an EV right?

30x less deliveries, I made a mistake. And we are not counting Tesla Energy and FSD play.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I mean- I think I was pretty clear Tesla did a lot better on many metrics in their early years--- and were a fundamentally much heathier company overall then and now- I was just pointing out they didn't on the specific metrics that were being cited (time to first 50k deliveries, and for how many years they kept doing cap raises).

My man, my English Is bad, but I fail to see how you could think those were the metrics I was using... I simply meant to pick the latest P&D annual number to compare them. At the moment they play different sports.