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Look at the charts. Dow wasn’t all over the place. It was down hard from October to December and TSLA was up hard thanks o executing on its promise. TSLA was moving more or less together with macros until Elon announced the early date for q3 earnings. From that point onwards it was a pretty...

What? They don’t get slapped no matter what they do. They executed q3 and q4 well and were rewarded handsomely with SP at ATH when general markets were crashing 20% from their highs.

I think that at the moment the demand equals supply and it is fairly balanced. However, in the long term I would be happy if TSLA would do low margin subcontracting for GM and at the same time increase the prices of Tesla's vehicles by 20%. The price elasticity for TSLA is pretty low, people...

They might not need it but it does not really have any real downsides to have a partnership with another carmaker. Pros - Low risk low margin cash flow - More confidence for TSLA's suppliers - More confidence for customers. Also if TSLAs powertrain would running some GM electric cars then it...

I have not and I don't doubt his personal views. However, as an employee of Apple he looks definitely extremely focused on margins and squeezing out the most of what Steve Jobs created before him. He has been CEO since 2011 and I think we are better off basing our analysis on his actions as a...

Who is going to be the strategic investor in TSLA? Considering how much insitutional selling has been happening then it is essential for the medium term prospects to think of the possible strategic investors. The strategic investor should take 5-10% stake Here are the ones that come to my mind...

Correct. Closing above 240 was a great setup to continue the bounce to 260 by the end of the week. The fact that we can't bounce from 240 is troublesome. Technically 10-15% bounce should not be asked too much considering the decline we had.

Market Action: Relentless selling pressure against the recovering macros. Hoped that the bounce after a week as bad as last week would take us to 260 by the end of this week. If we close below 240 then might get ugly again. Just need to hope that InisdeEV numbers are coming out soon and...

Tesla Looks to Regain Its Luster in Solar Energy by Slashing Prices Good move. Even if they lose money on Solar, the revenue growth will show that maybe there is some potential in TE and it will be another growth story for the SP.

Examples? If nothing I have said has been truthful then it would be very easy to provide 2-3 examples from my post. The only example you actually provided was admitting that I was correct in at least one of my posts. Accusing somebody of lying publicly without backing it up is not the best tone.

If I would try to think of a worst case then I would guess he wanted to have a chance of price going over 360 for the bond payment to pay it at least partially in equity to reduce the need for a cap raise. It didn't work out so now both the credibility is damaged and TSLA couldn't pay the bonds...

Here is the longer explanationby the Dutch EV rental company that shut down partly due to Tesla's spare part shortage: It wasn't one issue with the Teslas that killed our business. Summarized you could say that it were diverse issues, but the main problem was that there is just no proper supply...

Google shat on the bed with earnings. Will probably drag down Nasdaq tomorrow.

It was out during the market hours already. 0 effect on the SP.

Good enough close. 240 held and it's a good setup to continue the bounce in case no other bad news is coming this week. Good InsideEVs numbers for April might support the recovery later this week and capital raise would do the same. However, it's a long way to go. We recovered just half of the...

Doubt it. Currently the Robotaxi business is valued at 0 per share IMO. Only up from here with the Robotaxi valuation.

I think it is realistic that the Robotaxis will start on Airport - City centre routes or something like that. It will get people used to the concept and help to make the regulations. This would be beneficial for TSLA. Don't have to be the first to the market but the best.

Bullish on cars Bearish on FSD/TE Investor

I am not sure why we need to try to *sugar* on other competitors who have the same aims. For me as an investor: 1) If Waymo and GM Cruise are approved for Robotaxis this year then it will automatically probably increase price of TSLA shares 30-40% because people see it is actually a viable...

It failed because it got stuck. If it is immobile in the middle of the road then it is a safety hazard to all other cars sharing the road.

If they will leave the car sitting in the middle of the road then yes. But if they want to proceed driving with it then they need to disengage and driver makes the turn. I am not sure if they are able to change the destination so the car will go another route if there is a lot of traffic in an...

Correct. Here is the raw text from the law: (a) Upon receipt of a Manufacturer’s Testing Permit or a Manufacturer’s Testing Permit – Driverless Vehicles, a manufacturer shall commence retaining data related to the disengagement of the autonomous mode. For the purposes of this section...

If you are in that geofenced area and you want to get to another point in that geofenced are then what is the problem? Most likely the first actual FSD taxis will be within geofenced areas like Airport - City center and it is a huge step in the right direction.

Not so new as you can see. From January. But have been lurking TMC for years and following TSLA since 2012. Just got me over the edge when a member of the forum said that the 700mUSD was due to 700mUSD addition to inventory and nobody corrected that for good half an hour. :D And now can't...

Do you have a reference for what you just said? That Waymo is only reporting safety-related disengagements. Because the law says this: By law, all companies that are actively testing self-driving cars on public roads in California are required to disclose the number of miles driven and the...

This is the data we have as TSLA is hiding the actual data they have based on their testing. Due to the small sample size I put the disengagement rate at a much lower rate than the investor day rides show as a benefit of doubt for TSLA. Market action: Super important to climb back over 240...

This means for these 2 it is 1 disengagement per 40 miles. Adam Jones reported a disengagement in his report. I conservatively put the disengagement at 1 per 100 although it looked to be much higher at the event. And the event was in perfect conditions on their home turf.

Based on the reports by Galileo, Ross Gerber and Adam Jones. All of them reported at least 1 disengagement during their ride on the investor day. The ride was about 20 miles each.

Waymo has a product and needs to monetize it. If they can geofence entire LA or entire NYC and achieve 0 disengagements then they can start providing the service there. If the customer puts another destination in another city then they cannot order it. In those cities I guess 95% of the rides at...

Waymo was at 0.64 disengagements per 1000 miles in 2015. Tesla is at best 10 disengagements per 1000 miles according to the investor day. And Waymo is still not done with the fully self driving product even in Phoenix. How could Tesla go from 10 disengagements per thousand miles to 0 in one year...

Correct about the Semi but I just can't see how they can show a cost advantage when manufacturing a truck in California compared to let's say BYD who will manufacture a truck in China with their own batteries. In regards to Robotaxis at the investor event Gali, Gerber and Adam Jones all...

Y - Agree but it is too far out right now to have a material impact on the SP. Semi - A commodity market like Tesla Energy. Not bought for the same reason as Tesla's cars (emotions and desire) Pickup - If they go with the insane unconventional design that they have hinted then it's a...

We had 2 big uncertainties. SEC and capital raise. SEC is thankfully cleared at least until next time.. :) If they can raise capital from a strategic source then we will easily go back to 300+. If it is a regular capital raise on the market then probably will have a relief rally to 250-260 but...

I agree there was a big growth due to M3. But most of the revenue jump has been done now. The growth story is necessary if there is no profitability. In 2016 TSLA was not profitable and it was not a problem because we knew that Model 3 is coming and will make TSLA hugely profitable. Q1 and Q2...

Uber's IPO on the 10th of May might help as well. Not because I think that TSLA will have a robotaxi fleet anytime soon. They won't. However, it will show the insane valuations of the bigger private companies and might boost TSLA a bit.

I bought into the 2016 Feb dip as it was a general market correction and Model 3 was on the horizon as a growth story. Now it is a bit more complicated as the big growth story Model 3 is done and it looks like it is not as big of a cash cow as I expected. New story is FSD but I am not buying...

We can only hope that alternative funding is a strategic partnership. Something like Rivian + Ford. And something that Adam Jones has been pushing lately with the fundamentally overvalued and strategically undervalued thesis.

Any idea what the alternative funding sources can be from the 10Q? Can it be capital raise or is capital raise traditional source? :) Looks like the bounce has some volume and if we stay over 240 then should be a good week. Even TSLAQ's data is showing better than expected deliveries in April...

Yes, if they would have ended the quarter with 0 cars in transit then the net loss would have been 555mUSD.

Need a big day considering how damaged the technicals and confidence is after last week's disaster. Ending the day at 240+ and hopefully daily highs. This would be a great start to ride out some recovery rally this week. If we fall back to near 235 it means that institutions are still selling...

Your post was in reference to the 700mUSD net loss and not CF. That the inventory buildup explains the net loss. It doesn't.

Inventory is not an expense. It does not affect net income in any way. It only impacts the cash flows.