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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I am appalled at the financial state of some of the girls I am dating which belongs to those generations.

That sounds really creepy. :D As if you're old enough to be their grandfather creepy. But hey, they're dating you. So maybe they have more financial sense than you're giving them credit for.
 
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I think it’s very clear to me that Tesla will not meet Q2 guidance and the stock will slide even more.

In light of this, I think the obvious moves are:
1. Stop with silly overly optimistic timelines. Robotaxis are an example. Complete nonsense that Elon tried to spin this in a manner that was clearly aimed at inflating market cap. Nobody believes robotaxis are actually coming next year, and rightfully so.
2. Market is punishing Tesla hard for missing on execution. Get back to executing.
3. With the stock being $160 off from all time highs, it’s time for a major company to back you financially. Whether that be a 10% stake, buyout, etc.
4. Tesla needs to bring the magic back. People used to be so excited about this company. Now it’s all doom and gloom BS on a daily basis, with the general public thinking Tesla is gonna die.

It’s clear to me that the stock isn’t going up anytime soon with continued delivery misses in Q2, and then who knows what’s gonna happen in Q3/Q4. Having a major company like Apple or Amazon back Tesla would be huge and would kill the shorts.

Anyway, as a long bull it’s been super disappointing to watch.

Excuse me but they did execute. Q3 & Q4 in 2018 were profitable just like Tesla said they would be and what Wallstreet demanded to see. Tesla even executed in Q1 by paying off almost $1B in debt just as they said they would and they got punished for all of it.

Tesla became profitable and Wallstreet decided it was still a miss and now the company wasn’t growing fast enough and how come Tesla isn’t raising money (so we can collect more fees?). Wallstreet and the media lamented endlessly how Tesla couldn’t pay the debt, how it would bankrupt them. Tesla paid the debt, didn’t go bankrupt and complete silence from the peanut gallery like nothing even happened, um....where’s our cap raise, Elon?

When you get slapped no matter what you do, it’s best to put your head down, do your thing, and ignore the slap happy thugs until you’ve got a baseball bat handy and can knock their heads to kingdom come.

It’s as if some of you longs aren’t even paying attention to what’s going on. All you care about is, ‘What have you done for me lately, Elon?’ Oh, nothing special. Just killing it and getting no love...as the air we breathe tops 400 ppm of CO2.
 
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Haven't followed TMC or the TSLA stock price for some time now, but today I was able to take in a snapshot of current affairs.

I have to side with @Krugerrand (who has posted similar comments to fight the heavy negativity spewed by bitter investors in the red). Yes, the stock price is depressed and many of us believed we'd be above $400 by the month of May 2019, but we all know the TSLA stock price moves in mysterious ways.

All I am noting currently is the following:
- the long term Tesla Master Plan is still unfolding as intended;
- there is no indication that Tesla will not make the (conservative?) financial guidance expressed in the Q1 ER conference call;
- the competition regarding BEV's has not increased in the recent months, i.e. nothing has changed in that regard;
- the Tesla Autonomy Event does not sit well with many, since nobody really believes Elon's predictions. This should however have no influence on the stock price since robotaxi's or FSD weren't priced in to begin with. (Only with ARK)

I'm not going to "buy this dip" since I have invested as much as I am comfortable with, but I am not stressing out about my investment in TSLA either. When morale is as low as it is here today, the bottom is likely near (barring macro).

I'm going back to hibernation, not checking the TSLA ticker for days at a time (can't tell you how much more relaxing that is than keeping tabs on it every single day, I get warned by an app in case of 5% moves in either direction so I never miss out on huge days).

Good luck to all longs, stay calm, stay focused.
 
Excuse me but they did execute. Q3 & Q4 in 2018 were profitable just like Tesla said they would be and what Wallstreet demanded to see. Tesla even executed in Q1 by paying off almost $1B in debt just as they said they would and they got punished for all of it.

Tesla became profitable and Wallstreet decided it was still a miss and now the company wasn’t growing fast enough and how come Tesla isn’t raising money (so we can collect more fees?). Wallstreet and the media lamented endlessly how Tesla couldn’t pay the debt, how it would bankrupt them. Tesla paid the debt, didn’t go bankrupt and complete silence from the peanut gallery like nothing even happened, um....where’s our cap raise, Elon?

When you get slapped no matter what you do, it’s best to put your head down, do your thing, and ignore the slap happy thugs until you’ve got a baseball bat handy and can knock their heads to kingdom come.

It’s as if some of you longs aren’t even paying attention to what’s going on. All you care about is, ‘What have you done for me lately, Elon?’ Oh, nothing special. Just killing it and getting no love...as the air we breathe tops 400 ppm of CO2.

What? They don’t get slapped no matter what they do.

They executed q3 and q4 well and were rewarded handsomely with SP at ATH when general markets were crashing 20% from their highs.
 
Top 20 German PEV Models April YTD
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Model 3 vs the Direct ICEv Competition Germany April 2019 YTD .

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EV Sales: Germany April 2019
 
It just means - Musk is trying to scare the employees to cut costs. I don't know why he is such a drama queen.
Aren’t they going to be CF positive going forward?
Q1 was tough for multiple reasons in spite of that they were CF break even once u account for inventory in transit and debt repayments.
Q2 onward if deliveries normalize to 90k+ range CF should be significantly positive.
Am I missing something.
 
I actually don't agree with this when Elon knows damn well his emails will leak to the media. Every communication of his will have multiple effects, well beyond the direct recipient. He would do well to consider that and use that power to improve perception of Tesla's financial condition rather than actually fanning the fire. I already have a couple of friends who have driven my model 3 and love it, but expressed major reservations, not about the vehicle, but about buying it from a company they perceive to be in dire straits financially. They don't spend time trying to find forums to dig up information about Tesla like we do. They just hear that Tesla is burning massive amounts of cash and may run out soon, possible bankruptcy, yada yada. It makes them extremely hesitant to buy a Tesla. I can't say I blame them for being gunshy about buying a vehicle with technology that is already quite unknown to them when the company producing them, by all apparent accounts, appears to be on the verge of financial collapse. Elon continues to help foster that narrative. It's great to keep trying to cut costs and control expenses, but it's damaging to the public perception of Tesla to over-dramatize the challenging financial situation it is in.

Have to agree with this. Much of the SP damage has come purely from these types of communications. Elon doesn't have to say all this crap about "10 months to save the farm", etc., he can just state that together with Zack, they've reviewed costs and see that they're way too high. If he wanted to build a story around it then he could say that they want to reduce the prices of the cars, but keep the current margins, would generate the same desired effect without the bear-food.
 
Had to verify at the source. They really do say EVs now account for about half of the cars sold in Norway, and that your chart above is real. Quite the thing to behold.

From Switzerland, the cumulative Top Ten Jan-April:

MARKE MODELL ANZAHL VERKÄUFE
1 Škoda Octavia 3057
2 VW Tiguan 2224
3 VW Golf 2185
4 Tesla Model 3 1866
5 Škoda Karoq 1737
6 Škoda Kodiaq 1674
7 Mercedes-Benz A-Klasse 1594
8 VW T6 1583
9 Mercedes-Benz GLC-Klasse 1522
10 Mercedes-Benz C-Klasse 1509

Important to notice that the Model 3 was only in sales/delivery late in February 2019.
 
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Safe to click! Really professional and well done, thanks for the heads up. Tesla some time ago crowd-sourced ads that I thought were impressive - they just need to go on and on about a few simple facts until they seep into the collective consciousness.
 
I would bet that there will be less end-of-quarter discounting starting this quarter. In the past Tesla would discount to try to reduce inventory at EOQ. Since they're getting rid of the wave, they have less incentive to eliminate inventory at the end of a quarter. The quarterly discounting was one of the financial drawbacks of the wave approach they used to use.

This end-of-quarter discounting would also exacerbate Tesla's delivery problem, because customers caught on to it and would start delaying their orders to the end of the quarter. This of course made their end-of-quarter delivery push even harder.

Assuming Q2 is the start of the elimination of the wave, these discounts will hopefully go away. In other words, Tesla will hopefully be shifting to a model where quarterly boundaries are invisible to the behavior of the company. A great thing longer term.

In short, the wave approach was stupid stupid stupid all around, and Elon should have eliminated it long ago. Good riddens.
This wave is not unique to Tesla. I work in structured finance and nearly all pools of auto loans have a substantial uptick in the start dates at the end of the month/quarter as dealerships have to hit quarterly targets and sales staff at dealerships have to hit monthly targets to get their bonuses. End of period discounting is a common way of hitting their targets.

The dealership model can handle the variability of deliveries better than Tesla as they have a much more decentralised and distributed network. That's about the only upside of having dealerships that I can think of.
 
Important to notice that the Model 3 was only in sales/delivery late in February 2019.

And that there's no federal subsidy for EVs in Switzerland [repeating myself, but it remains highly relevant].

Also, the popularity of crossover vehicles in the top ten - Mercedes GLC, VW Tiguan, Skoda Karoq and Kodiaq [length 4.7m], which is closest to the Model Y in dimensions.
 
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I saw this when you first posted it to YouTube. Made me cry then...makes me cry now. This is EXACTLY why I believe autonomy is so important. Not because it's a super cool "feature" that we will be able to show off to our friends, but because it will change so many lives and give them back their independence that they have not had for so long.

Incredibly inspirational and moving piece. Thank you so much for making this, and more importantly sharing it with us. I will be sharing it with everyone I know.

Dan